Allstate Q3 2026 earnings review

Adjusted EPS of $9.76 beat the FactSet consensus by 42%, despite $1.7B of catastrophe losses.

Allstate · Q3 2026 · Published Nov 5, 2026 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

Allstate Q3 2026 earnings review

Quarter ended September 30, 2026

For information only, not investment advice. No rating or price target.

Built with DeepCell / deepcell.net

1 · Allstate (ALL) Q3 2026 earnings review

Adjusted EPS of $9.76 beat the FactSet consensus by 42%, despite $1.7B of catastrophe losses

  1. 1.Adjusted EPS fell 12.6% from $11.17 a year ago
  2. 2.Revenue of $17.3B missed FactSet by 1.1% after investment losses
  3. 3.Property-Liability combined ratio rose 6.5 points to 86.6%
  4. 4.Net investment income rose 24% to $1,177M
  5. 5.About $1.5B went back to shareholders in Q3; book value per share rose 25%
  6. 6.Shares were $273.01 in pre-market on Nov 5, 1.5% above the Nov 4 close

Note: Pre-market price is not a close. Allstate gives no EPS guidance.Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; FactSet via MarketScreener, Nov 4, 2026; TheFly (TipRanks), Nov 4, 2026; Yahoo Finance prices

2

2 · Executive summary

Q3 adjusted EPS beat consensus by 42%, while revenue missed by 1.1%

Q3 2026 results vs. consensus (FactSet via MarketScreener; TheFly, Nov 4, 2026)

MetricActualConsensusVarianceResult
Adjusted EPS (FactSet)$9.76$6.89+$2.87 / +41.7%Beat
Adjusted EPS (TheFly)$9.76$6.96+$2.80 / +40.2%Beat
Revenue (FactSet)$17,348M$17,540M-$192M / -1.1%Miss
Revenue (TheFly)$17,348M$17,460M-$112M / -0.6%Miss

Share price, Nov 3–5, 2026

Allstate (NYSE)Nov 3 closeNov 4 closeNov 5 pre-marketPre-market move
ALL$261.50$269.06$273.01+1.5%

Pre-market price at 7:45 AM ET / 7:45 PM ICT, Nov 5 (Yahoo Finance): pre-market, not a close. Move is versus the Nov 4 close.

Note: An earlier MT flash and some sites cite $15.87B revenue consensus, a narrower basis than total revenues.Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; FactSet via MarketScreener, Nov 4, 2026; TheFly (TipRanks), Nov 4, 2026; Yahoo Finance prices

3

3 · Q3 results vs. consensus

No EPS guidance; the buyback has $1.3B left of $4.0B

Outlook markers in the Q3 release

ItemLatestPriorRead-across
Buyback left ($M)$1,300M$4,000MAuthorized Feb 2026
Adjusted ROE, TTM39.7%34.7%Year ago
P-L policies (thousands)39,31938,056+3.3% YoY
Homeowners premiums written ($M)$4,950M$4,607M+7.4% YoY
Auto premiums written ($M)$9,884M$9,869M+0.2% YoY

Earnings swing factors, Property-Liability

ItemQ3 2026Q3 2025Read-across
Catastrophe losses ($M)$1,650M$558M+195.7% YoY
Underlying combined ratio80.5%78.7%Excludes catastrophes
Reserve release effect5.1%2.7%Lowers the ratio

Note: Allstate does not give EPS or revenue guidance. TTM is trailing 12 months; ROE is return on equity.Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; analysis of company data

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4 · Q4 2026 outlook

Net income to common fell 45% to $2,050M on higher catastrophe losses

  1. Premiums grewProperty-Liability premiums earned rose 3.8%.
  2. Catastrophes hitCatastrophe losses were $1,650M, against $558M.
  3. Investments helpedNet investment income rose $228M YoY.

Key figures

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Total revenues$17,255M$17,348M0.5%
Total costs and expenses$13,156M$14,731M12.0%
Net income to common$3,717M$2,050M(44.8%)
Adjusted net income$2,976M$2,493M(16.2%)
Adjusted EPS ($)$11.17$9.76(12.6%)

Note: Q3 2025 included a $720M gain on the sale of the group health business.Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; analysis of company data

5

5 · Q3 key financials

Homeowners combined ratio rose 18.0 points to 89.5% as catastrophe losses rose

Property-Liability by line

$M unless noted, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

LinePremiums earnedYoYCombined ratioUnderwriting income
Auto$9,654M+0.6%83.2%$1,623M
Homeowners$4,325M+11.5%89.5%$452M
Property-Liability$15,086M+3.8%86.6%$2,022M
Homeowners underwriting income fell to $452M from $1,107M“Earnings reflected strong underwriting margins on auto and homeowners insurance, higher investment income and continued growth of Protection Services,” said Tom Wilson, who leads Allstate.

Note: Combined ratio is claims and expenses as a share of premiums earned; below 100% is an underwriting profit.Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; analysis of company data

6

6 · Property-Liability by line

Homeowners added $445M of the $553M rise in premiums earned

Property-Liability premiums earned bridge

$M, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026

v · Q3 2025: $14,533Mv · Auto: $61Mv · Homeowners: $445Mv · Other lines: $47Mv · Q3 2026: $15,086MQ3 2025AutoHomeownersOther linesQ3 2026$14,000M$14,250M$14,500M$14,750M$15,000M$15,250M$15,400M$14,533M$61M$445M$47M$15,086M
Auto added only $61M as average premiums fell

Note: Other lines is the residual from the Property-Liability total. Totals are reported premiums earned.Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; analysis of company data

7

7 · Premiums earned bridge

8 · Protection Services

Investment losses of $545M explain most of the gap to $2,493M adjusted net income

Net income to common to adjusted net income

$M, Q3 2026

v · Net income: $2,050Mv · Investments: $545Mv · Other items: $19Mv · Tax effect: -$121Mv · Adjusted: $2,493MNet incomeInvestmentsOther itemsTax effectAdjusted$0M$1,000M$2,000M$3,000M$2,050M$545M$19M-$121M$2,493M
Adjusted EPS was $9.76, against $8.03 GAAP

Note: Other items are pension remeasurement, intangibles amortization and disposition. Tax effect is the tax on all adjustments.Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; analysis of company data

9

9 · Net income to adjusted

Property-Liability combined ratio rose 6.5 points to 86.6%

Combined ratio by line

%, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Property-Liability · Q3 2025: 80.1%Property-Liability · Q3 2026: 86.6%Auto · Q3 2025: 82.0%Auto · Q3 2026: 83.2%Homeowners · Q3 2025: 71.5%Homeowners · Q3 2026: 89.5%Q3 2025Q3 20260%25%50%75%100%80.1%86.6%82.0%83.2%71.5%89.5%
Catastrophes added 10.9% to the ratio, from 3.8%

Note: Combined ratio is claims and expenses as a share of premiums earned.Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; analysis of company data

10

10 · Combined ratio by line

Reserve releases took 5.1% of premiums off an 86.6% combined ratio

Underlying to recorded combined ratio, Property-Liability

%, Q3 2026

v · Underlying: 80.5%v · Catastrophes: 10.9%v · Reserve releases: -5.1%v · Intangibles: 0.3%v · Recorded: 86.6%UnderlyingCatastrophesReservereleasesIntangiblesRecorded70%75%80%85%90%95%80.5%10.9%-5.1%0.3%86.6%
Underlying ratio was 80.5%, against 78.7% a year ago

Note: Underlying ratio excludes catastrophes, prior-year reserve changes and purchased intangibles.Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; analysis of company data

11

11 · Combined ratio bridge

Auto underlying combined ratio worsened 3.8 points to 89.8%

Underlying combined ratio by line

%, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Property-Liability · Q3 2025: 78.7%Property-Liability · Q3 2026: 80.5%Auto · Q3 2025: 86.0%Auto · Q3 2026: 89.8%Homeowners · Q3 2025: 59.8%Homeowners · Q3 2026: 60.1%Q3 2025Q3 20260%25%50%75%100%78.7%80.5%86.0%89.8%59.8%60.1%
Auto policies in force rose 3.4%

Note: Underlying ratio excludes catastrophes, prior-year reserve changes and purchased intangibles.Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; analysis of company data

12

12 · Underlying ratio by line

13 · Balance sheet and capital

Catastrophe losses of $1,650M remain the main swing factor for earnings

Indicator
What to watch
Implication
Latest reading
Catastrophes
Earnings swings
Effect 10.9% of premiums
$1,650M in Q3
Auto pricing
Premium growth
Average premiums lower
Written +0.2% YoY
Reserve releases
Recorded ratio
Cut 5.1% from the ratio
Non-catastrophe
Investment marks
Net income
Losses of ($545M)
Q3 2026

Note: These are analytical watch points, not company targets.Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; analysis of company data

14

14 · Key risks to outlook

15 · Appendix: Policies and growth

Appendix: underwriting detail

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
P-L underwriting income fell$2,894M to $2,022MProperty-Liability
Auto underwriting income fell$1,726M to $1,623MAllstate Protection
Homeowners catastrophe losses$479M to $1,330MAllstate Protection
Homeowners underlying ratio59.8% to 60.1%Excludes catastrophes
Catastrophe effect rose7.1 pointsOn the P-L ratio
Reserve release effect2.7% to 5.1%Reduces the ratio

Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; analysis of company data

16

16 · Appendix: Underwriting

17 · Appendix: Investments and returns

Appendix: share count and capital detail

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Common shares outstanding248.8M, -5.1% YoYSep 30, 2026
Diluted weighted shares255.3M, -4.2% YoYQ3 2026
Capital returned in Q3About $1.5BBuybacks and dividends
Buyback authorization left$1.3B of $4.0BStarted Feb 2026
Preferred dividends$29MQ3 2026
Book value per share$95.95 to $120.23As reported

Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; analysis of company data

18

18 · Appendix: Shares and capital

Appendix: revenue and cost detail

Revenues, $M and YoY %

$MQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
P&C premiums$15,253M$15,856M4.0%
Other revenue$691M$724M4.8%
Net investment income$949M$1,177M24.0%
Investment gains (losses)$252M($545M)
Total revenues$17,255M$17,348M0.5%

Costs, $M and YoY %

$MQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Claims and claims expense$8,654M$9,943M14.9%
Acquisition cost amortization$2,101M$2,220M
Operating costs$2,265M$2,336M3.1%
Other costs, net$67M$77M
Total costs$13,156M$14,731M12.0%

Note: Other costs, net shows accident, health and other benefits only; pension, restructuring, intangibles and interest are in the data sheet.Source: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026; analysis of company data

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19 · Appendix: Income detail

Appendix: sources

  • Filing: Allstate Form 8-K, Nov 4, 2026 (accepted 4:16 PM ET) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/899051/000089905126000156/0000899051-26-000156-index.htm
  • Earnings release, Q3 2026 (Ex. 99.1) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/899051/000089905126000156/allcorp93026earningsreleas.htm
  • Consensus: TheFly via TipRanks, Nov 4, 2026, 4:26 PM ET (adjusted EPS $6.96; revenue $17.46B) — https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/allstate-reports-q3-adjusted-eps-9-76-consensus-6-96-thefly-news
  • Consensus: FactSet via MarketScreener/MT Newswires, Nov 4, 2026, 5:10 and 5:14 PM ET (adjusted EPS $6.89; revenue $17.54B) — https://se.marketscreener.com/nyheter/resultatnotis-all-allstate-redovisar-justerat-eps-p-9-76-dollar-for-tredje-kvartalet-mot-vanta-ce785fdfd18ef322
  • Share price: Yahoo Finance ALL, Nov 3 and Nov 4 closes; Nov 5 pre-market at 7:45 AM ET / 7:45 PM ICT, Nov 5 — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALL/
  • Investor supplement, Q3 2026 (Ex. 99.2) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/899051/000089905126000156/allcorp93026investorsupp.htm
  • Revenue basis: an earlier MT flash, TradingView and MarketBeat cite a $15.87B revenue estimate, a narrower basis than total revenues; it is not used here. Seeking Alpha also reported a revenue miss.
  • Times are US Eastern. The pre-market price is not a close. Earnings call: Nov 5, 9:00 AM ET.

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20 · Sources

Important disclosures and disclaimer

For information only. This presentation is provided for information only. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and it is not an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security.

No recommendation. It carries no rating, price target or buy, sell or hold view, and it was prepared without regard to any reader's investment objectives, financial situation or needs.

Sources and accuracy. Company figures come from The Allstate Corporation's Form 8-K of November 4, 2026 (Exhibit 99.1). Consensus estimates (FactSet via MarketScreener; TheFly via TipRanks) and share prices (Yahoo Finance) are third-party data, credited on the sources page. We have not independently verified third-party data.

Basis of presentation. Figures are as reported for the quarters ended September 30, 2026 and 2025, in US dollars.

Forward-looking statements. Watch items and consensus estimates in this deck are forward-looking. They rest on assumptions that may prove wrong, and actual results may differ materially.

Non-GAAP measures. Adjusted net income, adjusted EPS, adjusted ROE and the underlying combined ratio follow Allstate's own definitions and are reconciled to GAAP in its release. They may not be comparable with other companies' measures.

No liability. No liability is accepted for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents.

No affiliation. This presentation is not affiliated with, reviewed or endorsed by The Allstate Corporation. Company and brand names belong to their owners.

How it was made. The deck was built with DeepCell, with figures linked to a model in the file. Readers should check the figures against the original filings.

Date of analysis. The analysis reflects information available on November 5, 2026, including Nov 5 pre-market trading.

Built with DeepCell / deepcell.net

21

21 · Disclosures

Sources

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