Intel Q3 2026 earnings review

Q3 non-GAAP EPS beat consensus by 30.0%, but the Q4 revenue guide was 9.4% below.

Intel · Q3 2026 (Jul–Sep 2026) · Published Nov 1, 2026 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

Intel Q3 2026 earnings review

Quarter ended September 26, 2026

For information only, not investment advice. No rating or price target.

Built with DeepCell / deepcell.net

1 · Cover

Q3 non-GAAP EPS beat consensus by 30.0%, but the Q4 revenue guide was 9.4% below

  1. 1.Q3 non-GAAP EPS of $0.52 beat the $0.40 consensus; revenue was in line
  2. 2.The Q4 revenue guide midpoint of $15.50B was below the $17.10B consensus
  3. 3.DCAI revenue rose 77.8%, while CCPG revenue fell 5.1%
  4. 4.Gross capex equaled 83.0% of operating cash flow, leaving free cash flow of $863M
  5. 5.Shares fell 23.0% in after-hours trading after the release

Note: DCAI is Data Center and AI; CCPG is Client Computing and Physical AI Group. Non-GAAP EPS excludes items such as the Escrowed Shares mark-to-market and divestiture gains. The share move is the 8:00 PM ET after-hours price on Oct 29 against the Oct 29 close.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; LSEG via CNBC; Public.com, Yahoo Finance, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

2

2 · Key takeaways

Q3 non-GAAP EPS beat the LSEG consensus by 30.0%, while revenue came in line

Q3 2026 results vs consensus

MetricActualConsensusVarianceResult
Non-GAAP EPS$0.52$0.40+$0.12 / +30.0%Beat
Revenue$16.51B$16.50B+$0.01B / +0.1%In line
Non-GAAP operating margin19.6%16.5%+308 bpsBeat

Share price reaction to the after-the-close release on Oct 29, 2026

Price pointTime (ET)INTC priceSource
Regular-session closeOct 29, 4:00 PM$92.07Public.com
After-hours priceOct 29, 8:00 PM$70.87Public.com
Change in share priceClose to after-hours-23.0%Analysis

Note: Non-GAAP EPS excludes items such as the Escrowed Shares mark-to-market and divestiture gains. Variance is actual less consensus. Intel posted the release at 4:01 PM ET; after-hours trading is thin.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; LSEG via CNBC; Seeking Alpha; Public.com, Yahoo Finance, Oct 29, 2026; analysis based on company data

3

3 · Q3 versus Wall Street consensus

Q4 non-GAAP EPS guidance came in 41.9% below the LSEG consensus, and the revenue guide was 9.4% below

Q4 2026 guidance vs consensus

MetricGuidanceConsensusVariancevs Street
Revenue (midpoint)$15.50B$17.10B-$1.60B / -9.4%Miss
Non-GAAP EPS$0.25$0.43-$0.18 / -41.9%Miss
Non-GAAP gross margin38.0%42.8%-480 bpsMiss

Q4 2026 guidance vs Q3 2026 actual

MetricQ3 2026 actualQ4 2026 guidanceChangeBasis
Non-GAAP gross margin44.1%38.0%-611 bpsGuide less actual
Revenue$16.5B$15.0B–$16.0Bn.a.Guidance range
GAAP EPS$0.60$0.10n.a.Guidance
Kiryat Gat, Israel fab accidentMid-October haltQ4 charges expectedNot estimated10-Q MD&A

Note: Variance is guidance less consensus; the revenue guide uses the midpoint of the range. Consensus is as of Oct 29, before the release.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; Intel Form 10-Q, Oct 30, 2026; LSEG via CNBC and Seeking Alpha, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

4

4 · Guidance and estimate changes

GAAP operating income rose 269.3%, but GAAP net income fell 18.3% on a year-ago divestiture gain

  1. DCAI drove revenue growthDCAI revenue rose 77.8%, the fastest of any segment.
  2. Non-GAAP net income rose fasterNon-GAAP net income attributable to Intel rose 169.4%, as it excludes the year-ago Altera gain.
  3. Capex used most of operating cash flowGross capex equaled 83.0% of operating cash flow in Q3.

Key figures in $M and YoY % for Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Revenue$13,653M$16,513M20.9%
GAAP operating income$683M$2,522M269.3%
GAAP net income attributable to Intel$4,063M$3,320M(18.3%)
GAAP diluted EPS ($)$0.90$0.60(33.3%)
Free cash flow($410M)$863Mn.m.

Note: DCAI is Data Center and AI. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less gross capex. Net income and EPS are attributable to Intel. n.m. means not meaningful.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

5

5 · Q3 at a glance

DCAI revenue rose 77.8% with a 41.5% operating margin, while CCPG revenue fell 5.1%

Segment revenue, revenue YoY, operating income and operating margin

$M unless noted, Q3 2026 (YoY vs Q3 2025)

SegmentRevenueRevenue YoYOperating incomeOperating margin
CCPG$8,097M(5.1%)$2,285M28.2%
DCAI$7,318M77.8%$3,039M41.5%
Intel Foundry$6,697M58.1%($1,853M)(27.7%)
All Other$692M(30.3%)$179M25.9%
Corporate unallocated—n.a.($1,058M)n.a.
Eliminations($6,291M)n.m.($70M)n.a.
Intel expects the PC slowdown to last at least through the first half of 2027

Note: DCAI is Data Center and AI; CCPG is Client Computing and Physical AI Group. Operating margin is segment operating income divided by segment revenue. Eliminations remove intersegment sales.Source: Intel Form 10-Q, Oct 30, 2026, Note 2: Operating Segments; analysis based on company data

6

6 · Segment overview

DCAI accounted for 111.9% of the revenue increase, as the other segments netted to a decline

DCAI share of total revenue

% of revenue, Q3 2025 vs Q3 2026

DCAI, % of revenue · Q3 2025: 30.2%DCAI, % of revenue · Q3 2026: 44.3%Q3 2025Q3 20260.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%30.2%44.3%
DCAI rose to 44.3% of revenue from 30.2% a year earlier

Note: DCAI is Data Center and AI. DCAI share is DCAI revenue divided by total revenue. Share of the increase is the DCAI revenue change divided by the total revenue change.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

7

7 · Where revenue growth came from

Eliminations offset 83.8% of Foundry revenue growth, as most of it came from intersegment sales

Intersegment sales lift Foundry’s reported growth and drop out on consolidation

Revenue change by segment

$M, Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025

$M · DCAI: $3,201M$M · Foundry: $2,462M$M · Client: -$438M$M · All Other: -$301M$M · Eliminations: -$2,064M$M · Total: $2,860MDCAIFoundryClientAll OtherEliminationsTotal$0M$2,000M$4,000M$6,000M$7,000M$3,201M$2,462M-$438M-$301M-$2,064M$2,860M

Note: DCAI is Data Center and AI; CCPG is Client Computing and Physical AI Group. Bars are each segment’s YoY revenue change. The offset share is the increase in eliminations divided by the increase in Foundry revenue.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

8

8 · Revenue change by segment

GAAP net income fell 18.3% while non-GAAP net income rose 169.4%, as Q3 2025 had a $5,452M divestiture gain

GAAP net income attributable to Intel

$M, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026

$M · Q3 2025 net income: $4,063M$M · Operating income: $1,839M$M · Equity gains: $109M$M · Interest and other: -$2,540M$M · Income tax: -$158M$M · Minority interests: $7M$M · Q3 2026 net income: $3,320MQ3 2025net incomeOperatingincomeEquitygainsInterestand otherIncome taxMinorityinterestsQ3 2026net income$0M$2,000M$4,000M$6,000M$7,000M$4,063M$1,839M$109M-$2,540M-$158M$7M$3,320M
Interest and other income fell as the Altera sale gain dropped out

Note: Steps are YoY changes; income tax and minority interests are shown as reductions. Non-GAAP results exclude the divestiture and Escrowed Shares gains.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

9

9 · The profit caveat

Incremental GAAP operating margin reached 64.3% as GAAP operating expenses rose 0.9%

GAAP gross and operating margin

% of revenue, Q3 2025 vs Q3 2026

GAAP operating margin · Q3 2025: 5.0%GAAP operating margin · Q3 2026: 15.3%GAAP gross margin · Q3 2025: 38.2%GAAP gross margin · Q3 2026: 43.0%Q3 2025Q3 20260.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%5.0%15.3%38.2%43.0%
GAAP operating expenses rose just 0.9% YoY

Note: Incremental operating margin is the YoY change in GAAP operating income divided by the YoY change in revenue.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

10

10 · Margins

Partner contributions were 51.7% of adjusted free cash flow; free cash flow was $863M without them

Operating cash flow to adjusted free cash flow

$M, Q3 2026

$M · Operating cash flow: $5,082M$M · Capex: -$4,219M$M · FCF: $863M$M · Partners: $847M$M · Incentives: $48M$M · Leases: -$119M$M · Adjusted FCF: $1,639MOperatingcash flowCapexFCFPartnersIncentivesLeasesAdjustedFCF$0M$2,000M$4,000M$6,000M$5,082M-$4,219M$863M$847M$48M-$119M$1,639M
Operating cash flow still covered gross capex in Q3

Note: FCF is OCF less gross capex. Adjusted FCF (non-GAAP) adds government incentives and net partner contributions and deducts finance leases.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

11

11 · Cash versus profit

12 · Capex

Net cash reached $3,871M, reflecting a $22,617M equity offering rather than operating cash flow

Cash, debt and net cash

$M, Dec 27, 2025 vs Sep 26, 2026

$MDec 27, 2025Sep 26, 2026
Cash and short-term investments$37,416M$54,005M
Total debt$46,585M$50,134M
Net cash (net debt)($9,169M)$3,871M
Equity proceeds, not operations, moved Intel from net debt to net cash

Note: Net cash is cash and short-term investments less total debt. Changes cover the nine months since Dec 27, 2025.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

13

13 · Balance sheet

Q4 estimates depend on DCAI revenue, up 77.8%, CCPG revenue, down 5.1%, and gross margin

Indicator
What to watch
Implication
Q3 reading
DCAI revenue
Q4 DCAI growth slows on tight CPU supply
Q4 DCAI estimates could fall
DCAI revenue grew 77.8% YoY
CCPG revenue
CCPG falls faster in Q4
Q4 CCPG estimates could fall
CCPG revenue declined 5.1% YoY
Gross margin
Q4 GAAP gross margin misses the guide
Q4 EPS estimates could fall
GAAP gross margin 43.0%

Note: DCAI is Data Center and AI; CCPG is Client Computing and Physical AI Group. These are analytical watch points, not company targets. Q3 readings are reported Q3 2026 figures.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

14

14 · Risks to estimates

Appendix: supporting analysis for segments

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
DCAI operating income grew faster than DCAI revenueDCAI operating income +215.2%; DCAI operating margin 23.4% in Q3 2025 to 41.5% in Q3 2026Segment operating income divided by segment revenue
Intel Foundry still lost moneyFoundry operating loss ($2,321M) in Q3 2025 and ($1,853M) in Q3 2026Segment operating income (loss)
Intel Products revenue grew with DCAIIntel Products revenue $12,652M to $15,415MSum of CCPG and DCAI revenue

DCAI is Data Center and AI; CCPG is Client Computing and Physical AI Group. Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

15

15 · Supporting analysis (1/4)

Appendix: supporting analysis for profit, margins and cash

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Non-GAAP profit excludes nonrecurring gainsNon-GAAP net income attributable to Intel rose from $1,023M to $2,756M; non-GAAP EPS rose from $0.23 to $0.52Company reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP
Non-GAAP operating margin roseNon-GAAP operating margin 11.2% to 19.6%Non-GAAP operating income divided by revenue
Adjusted free cash flow improvedAdjusted free cash flow was $896M in Q3 2025; partner contributions were $1,346MOCF − gross capex + incentives and partner contributions − finance leases

OCF is operating cash flow. Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

16

16 · Supporting analysis (2/4)

Appendix: guidance, capex and balance sheet support

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Capex exceeded operating cash flow a year earlierGross capex was 116.1% of operating cash flow in Q3 2025Gross capex divided by OCF
Inventories rose in 2026Inventories rose from $11,618M at Dec 27, 2025 to $13,068M at Sep 26, 2026Balance sheet comparison
Undrawn credit lines add liquidityCommitted credit facilities total $15,000M after amendment, all undrawnForm 10-Q liquidity section
GAAP and non-GAAP guides differQ4 GAAP tax rate guide 31%; Q4 non-GAAP opex guide $4,400MAs stated in the release outlook

Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; Intel Form 10-Q, Oct 30, 2026; analysis based on company data

17

17 · Supporting analysis (3/4)

Appendix: watch items behind guidance and risks

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
PC outlook (release)The CFO sees the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half of next yearQuoted in the earnings release
GAAP EPS exceeded non-GAAP EPSNon-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.08 below GAAP EPS in Q3 2026Escrowed Shares gain is excluded from non-GAAP
DCAI watch itemQ4 DCAI revenue growth well below the Q3 pace would signal supply limitsDCAI revenue YoY
CCPG watch itemA deeper CCPG revenue decline would shrink a major profit poolCCPG revenue YoY
Gross margin watch itemA Q4 GAAP gross margin below the guide would reverse Q3 gainsGross profit divided by revenue

DCAI is Data Center and AI; CCPG is Client Computing and Physical AI Group. Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

18

18 · Supporting analysis (4/4)

Appendix: income statement and cash flow detail

Operating cost and tax detail, $M and YoY %

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Research and development$3,231M$3,490M8.0%
Marketing, general and administrative$1,129M$1,030M(8.8%)
Income before taxes$4,574M$3,982Mn.m.
Provision for taxes$304M$462M52.0%

Cash flow detail, $M and YoY %

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Operating cash flow$2,546M$5,082M99.6%
Investing cash flow($6,250M)($19,590M)n.m.
Financing cash flow$5,152M$23,309Mn.m.

Note: n.m. means not meaningful. Red figures are unfavourable changes.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data

19

19 · Appendix: financial detail

Appendix: sources

  • Filing: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086326000188/0000050863-26-000188.txt
  • Filing: Intel Form 10-Q, Oct 30, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086326000191/intc-20260926.htm
  • Consensus (results and guidance): CNBC/LSEG, Oct 29 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/intel-intc-q3-earnings-report-2026-.html
  • Consensus (results and guidance): Seeking Alpha/TradingView, Oct 29 — https://www.tradingview.com/news/seekingalpha:6b120d5e0094b:0-intel-crashes-as-q3-results-guidance-miss-wall-street-s-forecasts/
  • Prices (share price reaction): Public.com after-hours history, read Oct 30 — https://public.com/stocks/intc/after-hours; close cross-checked on Yahoo Finance — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/
  • Release time: Intel press release 4:01 PM ET; EDGAR 8-K acceptance 4:08 PM ET — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086326000188/0000050863-26-000188-index.htm

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20

20 · Sources

Important disclosures and disclaimer

For information only. This presentation is provided for information only. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and it is not an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security.

No recommendation. It carries no rating, price target or buy, sell or hold view, and it was prepared without regard to any reader's investment objectives, financial situation or needs.

Sources and accuracy. Company figures come from Intel's Form 8-K (Exhibit 99.1) and Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 26, 2026. Consensus estimates (LSEG via CNBC, Seeking Alpha) and share prices (Public.com, cross-checked on Yahoo Finance) are third-party data, credited on the sources page. We have not independently verified third-party data and make no warranty that any information here is accurate, complete or timely. After-hours prices come from thin trading and may not reflect regular-session levels.

Forward-looking statements. Company guidance, consensus estimates and the watch items in this deck are forward-looking. They rest on assumptions that may prove wrong, and actual results may differ materially.

Past performance. Past results and share price moves, including those for Q3 2026, are not a reliable indicator of future results.

Non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP figures follow Intel's own definitions, which exclude certain items such as the year-ago divestiture gain. They supplement, and do not replace, GAAP results, and they may not be comparable with other companies' measures. Intel's earnings release reconciles them to GAAP.

No liability. No liability is accepted for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents.

No affiliation. This presentation is not affiliated with, reviewed or endorsed by Intel Corporation and does not represent Intel's views. Company and product names belong to their owners.

How it was made. The deck was built with DeepCell, with figures linked to a model in the file. Readers should check the figures against the original filings and consult a qualified professional adviser before making any investment decision.

Date of analysis. The analysis reflects information available as of October 30, 2026. It will not be updated for later events, and views may change without notice.

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21

21 · Important disclosures

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