Mattel Q3 2026 earnings review

Net sales rose 4.1% to $1,806.7M, but missed S&P consensus.

Mattel · Q3 2026 · Published Nov 6, 2026 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

Mattel Q3 2026 earnings review

Quarter ended September 30, 2026

For information only, not investment advice. No rating or price target.

Built with DeepCell / deepcell.net

1 · Mattel (MAT) Q3 2026 earnings review

Net sales rose 4.1% to $1,806.7M, but missed S&P consensus

  1. 1.Net sales of $1,806.7M missed S&P consensus of $1,830.0M
  2. 2.Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.30, well above S&P consensus of $0.94
  3. 3.Gross margin rose to 54.8%, helped by $88.0M of tariff refunds
  4. 4.Full-year Adj. EPS guide was cut to $1.05–$1.20 from $1.27–$1.39
  5. 5.Shares closed at $14.97 on Nov 5 (-3.9% vs Nov 4); after-hours $14.41, not a close

Note: After-hours is not a close. Revised FY guide excludes tariff refunds recognized year-to-date.Source: Mattel Q3 2026 Ex. 99.1; StockStory/S&P; CNBC, Nov 5, 2026 (after-hours 6:37 PM EST / 6:37 AM ICT Nov 6, not a close); analysis of company data

2

2 · Executive summary

Sales missed S&P consensus while adjusted EPS and EBITDA beat

Q3 2026 results vs. S&P Global consensus (StockStory)

MetricActualS&P consensusVarianceResult
Net sales vs. S&P consensus$1,806.7M$1,830.0M-$23.3M / -1.3%Miss
Adjusted EPS vs. S&P consensus$1.30$0.94+$0.36 / +38.3%Beat
Adjusted EBITDA vs. S&P consensus$542.5M$453.4M+$89.1MBeat

Share price around the release (CNBC)

MeasureNov 4 closeNov 5 closeNov 5 after-hoursAH vs close
Mattel (Nasdaq)$15.57$14.97$14.41-$0.56 / -3.7%

Note: S&P consensus from StockStory (TradingView, Nov 5, 2026). After-hours 6:37 PM EST is not a close. Miss uses dark red per rule.Source: Mattel Q3 2026 Ex. 99.1; StockStory/S&P; CNBC, Nov 5, 2026 (after-hours 6:37 PM EST / 6:37 AM ICT Nov 6, not a close); analysis of company data

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3 · Q3 results vs. consensus

Adjusted operating income rose 26.9% to $501.6M

  1. Hot Wheels led growthVehicles gross billings rose 8.6%; Hot Wheels rose 7.0%.
  2. Barbie and Fisher-Price fellBarbie billings fell 9.5%; Fisher-Price fell 13.6%.
  3. Buybacks continuedNine-month share repurchases were $308.0M.

Key figures in $M and YoY % for Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Net sales$1,736.0M$1,806.7M4.1%
Operating income$379.8M$476.3M25.4%
Adjusted operating income$395.2M$501.6M26.9%
Diluted EPS$0.88$1.2339.8%
Adjusted diluted EPS$0.91$1.3042.9%

Note: Adjusted figures exclude amortization of acquired intangibles, severance, inclined sleeper recalls and acquisition items.Source: Mattel Q3 2026 Ex. 99.1; analysis of company data

4

4 · Q3 key financials

Vehicles gross billings rose 8.6% to $679.8M

Worldwide gross billings

$M, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Category / brandQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Dolls$674.1M$703.2M4.3%
Vehicles$626.2M$679.8M8.6%
Infant, Toddler, Preschool$262.5M$220.8M(15.9%)
Action Figures, Games, Other$404.0M$450.8M11.6%
Barbie$413.9M$374.6M(9.5%)
Hot Wheels$547.2M$585.5M7.0%
Fisher-Price$215.4M$186.2M(13.6%)
North America sales rose 3.7%; International rose 4.6%“We will focus our resources on our greatest opportunities and translate the strength of Mattel's portfolio into more consistent financial performance.” — Roger Lynch, Chairman and CEO

Note: Gross billings are amounts invoiced before sales adjustments. Barbie decline partly offset partner brands including KPop Demon Hunters.Source: Mattel Q3 2026 Ex. 99.1; analysis of company data

5

5 · Categories and brands

6 · Net sales

7 · Category mix

Gross margin rose to 54.8% from 50.0%, aided by tariff refunds

Margin rates

% of net sales, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Gross margin · Q3 2025: 50.0%Gross margin · Q3 2026: 54.8%Operating margin · Q3 2025: 21.9%Operating margin · Q3 2026: 26.4%Q3 2025Q3 20260.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%50.0%54.8%21.9%26.4%

Gross marginOperating margin

Tariff refunds of $88.0M lifted gross margin by several points

Note: Adjusted gross margin was 55.0%. Inflation and higher royalties offset other benefits.Source: Mattel Q3 2026 Ex. 99.1; analysis of company data

8

8 · Margins

9 · Adjusted operating income

10 · Balance sheet and cash

Mattel cut FY Adj. EPS guide to $1.05–$1.20

Full-year 2026 company guidance

Revised Nov 5 vs. August guide

ItemPrior (Aug)Revised (Nov)
Net sales growth (constant currency)3.0%–6.0%1.0%–4.0%
Adjusted gross margin≈50.0%≈48.0%
Adjusted operating income$580.0M–$630.0M$500.0M–$570.0M
Adjusted EPS$1.27–$1.39$1.05–$1.20
Revised guide excludes tariff refunds recognized year-to-date

Note: FX expected to benefit FY sales by ~1%. Adjusted tax rate ~23%.Source: Mattel Q3 2026 Ex. 99.1; analysis of company data

11

11 · Outlook

Barbie and Fisher-Price declines and a lower FY guide frame the risk set

Indicator
What to watch
Implication
Q3 reading
Barbie trend
Core dolls demand
Barbie -9.5%
Billings $374.6M
Fisher-Price
ITP category -15.9%
Preschool weakness
FP -13.6%
FY guide cut
Holiday execution
Lower Adj. EPS band
Guide mid $1.13
Tariff refunds
Margin quality
Non-repeat risk
Refunds $88.0M

Note: These are analytical watch points, not company targets.Source: Mattel Q3 2026 Ex. 99.1; analysis of company data

12

12 · Key risks

Appendix: geographic sales

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Net sales$450.8M, +3.7% YoYEx. 99.1
Net sales$792.7M, +4.6% YoYEx. 99.1
Part of InternationalSee Ex. 99.1 geographic tableEx. 99.1
Fastest reported growth+17% as reported in Q3Ex. 99.1

Source: Mattel Q3 2026 Ex. 99.1; analysis of company data

13

13 · Appendix: Geography

Appendix: GAAP-to-non-GAAP EPS items

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
GAAP diluted EPS$374.6MNon-GAAP table
Intangibles, severance, recalls, dealsAdj. EPS $1.30Non-GAAP table
Adjusted operating income$501.6M; margin 27.8%Non-GAAP table
Adjusted EBITDA$542.5MNon-GAAP table

Source: Mattel Q3 2026 Ex. 99.1; analysis of company data

14

14 · Appendix: Non-GAAP

15 · Appendix: Cash flow

16 · Appendix: Guide path

Appendix: P&L and brand detail

Income statement, $M and YoY %

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Net sales$1,736.0M$1,806.7M4.1%
Gross profit$868.3M$989.6M14.0%
Advertising and promotion$118.1M$143.3M21.3%
Operating income$379.8M$476.3M25.4%
Net income$278.4M$353.6M27.0%

Power brands, $M and YoY %

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Barbie$413.9M$374.6M(9.5%)
Hot Wheels$547.2M$585.5M7.0%
Fisher-Price$215.4M$186.2M(13.6%)

Note: Power-brand billings are a subset of category gross billings.Source: Mattel Q3 2026 Ex. 99.1; analysis of company data

17

17 · Appendix: P&L detail

Appendix: sources

  • Q3 net sales $1,806.7M; Adj. EPS $1.30 (Ex. 99.1)
  • Filing: Mattel, Inc. Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 5, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63276/000006327626000014/exhibit991.htm
  • Corporate news page — https://corporate.mattel.com/news/mattel-reports-third-quarter-2026-financial-results
  • Prior FY guide: Q2 2026 Ex. 99.1, Aug 4, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63276/000162828026052674/matq22026earningsrelease.htm
  • S&P Global consensus via StockStory / TradingView, Nov 5, 2026 — https://www.tradingview.com/news/stockstory:3baec1507094b:0-mattel-nasdaq-mat-misses-q3-2026-sales-expectations/
  • Share price: CNBC MAT — Nov 4 close; Nov 5 close; after-hours 6:37 PM EST (6:37 AM ICT Nov 6), not a close — https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/MAT
  • Yahoo Finance quote page — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAT/

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18 · Sources

Important disclosures and disclaimer

For information only. This presentation is provided for information only. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and it is not an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security.

No recommendation. It carries no rating, price target or buy, sell or hold view.

Sources and accuracy. Company figures come from Mattel, Inc.'s Form 8-K Ex. 99.1 filings dated November 5, 2026 and August 4, 2026. Consensus figures are attributed to S&P Global via StockStory. Share prices are CNBC quote data.

Forward-looking statements. Company guidance and watch items are forward-looking and may prove wrong.

Past performance. Past results are not a reliable indicator of future results.

Non-GAAP measures. Adjusted gross margin, operating income, EPS and EBITDA follow Mattel's definitions and are reconciled in Ex. 99.1.

No liability. No liability is accepted for any loss arising from use of this presentation.

No affiliation. This presentation is not affiliated with or endorsed by Mattel, Inc.

How it was made. Built with DeepCell. Check figures against the original filings.

Date of analysis. Reflects information as of November 5, 2026, US Eastern time, including the after-hours quote at 6:37 PM EST.

Built with DeepCell / deepcell.net

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19 · Disclosures

Sources

Not investment advice; no rating or price target.

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