NRG Energy Q3 2026 earnings review

Adjusted EPS rose 68.3% to $4.68, and NRG agreed a $4.0B asset sale.

NRG Energy, Inc. · Q3 2026 · Published Nov 9, 2026 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

NRG Energy Q3 2026 earnings review

Quarter ended September 30, 2026 · NYSE: NRG

For information only, not investment advice. No rating or price target.

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1 · NRG Energy (NRG) Q3 2026 earnings review

Adjusted EPS rose 68.3% to $4.68, and NRG agreed a $4.0B asset sale

  1. 1.Adjusted EPS of $4.68 beat the Zacks consensus of $3.44
  2. 2.Adjusted EBITDA rose 67.1% to $2,013M, led by the East segment
  3. 3.NRG will sell 4.9 GW of gas plants to LS Power for $4.0B
  4. 4.2026 guidance was reaffirmed; 2027 Adjusted EPS guidance midpoint is $9.05
  5. 5.The pre-market share-price reaction is shown in the results table

Note: FCFbG is free cash flow before growth investments. Adjusted EPS, Adjusted EBITDA and FCFbG are company non-GAAP measures that exclude fair value adjustments on derivatives.Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; Zacks via Yahoo Finance, Nov 9, 2026; CNBC quote, Nov 9, 2026, 9:03 AM ET; analysis of company data

2

2 · Executive summary

Adjusted EPS of $4.68 beat the Zacks consensus by 36.0%

Q3 2026 results vs. consensus

MetricActualConsensusVarianceResult
Adjusted EPS vs. Zacks$4.68$3.44+$1.24 / +36.0%Beat
Adjusted EPS vs. Investing.com$4.68$3.16+$1.52 / +48.1%Beat
Revenue vs. Investing.com$9,466M$9,330M+$136M / +1.5%Beat

Share price after the Nov 9 release (CNBC)

MeasureNov 6 closeNov 9 pre-market, 9:03 AM ETChange vs. Nov 6 close
NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG)$88.29$94.16+$5.87 / +6.6%

Note: Pre-market prices are thin-volume indications, not a close. This deck does not attribute a cause to the move.Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; Zacks via Yahoo Finance, Nov 9, 2026; Investing.com, Nov 9, 2026; CNBC quote, Nov 9, 2026, 9:03 AM ET; analysis of company data

3

3 · Q3 results vs. consensus

NRG reaffirmed 2026 guidance and set a 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint of $5,750M

2026 guidance (reaffirmed)

MetricLowHighMidpoint
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$5,325M$5,825M$5,575M
Adjusted EPS ($)$7.90$9.90$8.90
FCFbG ($M)$2,800M$3,300M$3,050M

2027 guidance (initiated, excludes the asset sale)

MetricLowHighMidpoint
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$5,500M$6,000M$5,750M
Adjusted EPS ($)$8.05$10.05$9.05
FCFbG ($M)$2,900M$3,400M$3,150M

Note: FCFbG is free cash flow before growth investments. Midpoints are DeepCell calculations. 2027 guidance does not reflect the expected impact of the 4.9 GW asset sale.Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; analysis of company data

4

4 · 2026 and 2027 guidance

Revenue rose 24.0% and net income rose to $561M from $152M

  1. Acquired plants lifted resultsAdjusted EBITDA rose 67.1% with the LS Power portfolio.
  2. Hedge marks cut GAAP profitGAAP EPS of $2.59 trailed Adjusted EPS of $4.68.
  3. Financing costs roseInterest expense rose 61.5% to $302M.

Key figures in $M for Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Revenue$7,635M$9,466M24.0%
Adjusted EBITDA$1,205M$2,013M67.1%
Operating income$414M$1,084M161.8%
Net income$152M$561M269.1%
Adjusted EPS ($)$2.78$4.6868.3%

Note: GAAP EPS is basic. Adjusted EPS is Adjusted net income available for common stockholders divided by basic shares.Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; analysis of company data

5

5 · Q3 key financials

East Adjusted EBITDA rose to $614M from $107M, and Texas rose 26.1%

Adjusted EBITDA by segment

$M, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

SegmentQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Texas$807M$1,018M26.1%
East$107M$614M473.8%
West/Other$13M$64M392.3%
Vivint Smart Home$278M$317M14.0%
Adjusted EBITDA$1,205M$2,013M67.1%
East supplied 30.5% of Adjusted EBITDA, up from 8.9%“Today’s announcement is about returning more to our shareholders and supporting future growth investments.” Robert Gaudette, President and CEO

Note: West/Other includes corporate activities. East growth came from the generation assets and CPower bought from LS Power and higher capacity prices.Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; analysis of company data

6

6 · Segment results

7 · Adjusted EBITDA bridge

East revenue rose 48.5% to $4,456M, the largest segment

Revenue by segment

$M, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

East · Q3 2025: $3,001MEast · Q3 2026: $4,456MWest/Other · Q3 2025: $674MWest/Other · Q3 2026: $692MTexas · Q3 2025: $3,379MTexas · Q3 2026: $3,728MVivint · Q3 2025: $552MVivint · Q3 2026: $609MQ3 2025Q3 2026$0M$1,000M$2,000M$3,000M$4,000M$5,000M$3,001M$4,456M$674M$692M$3,379M$3,728M$552M$609MEastWest/OtherTexasVivint
Texas revenue was $3,728M, up 10.3%

Note: Segment revenue excludes mark-to-market and contract amortization, so the total differs from GAAP revenue. Corporate eliminations not shown.Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; analysis of company data

8

8 · Revenue by segment

9 · Net income bridge

Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 21.3% from 15.8%

Margins

% of revenue, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Adjusted EBITDA margin · Q3 2025: 15.8%Adjusted EBITDA margin · Q3 2026: 21.3%Operating margin · Q3 2025: 5.4%Operating margin · Q3 2026: 11.5%Net margin · Q3 2025: 2.0%Net margin · Q3 2026: 5.9%Q3 2025Q3 20260.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%15.8%21.3%5.4%11.5%5.9%

Adjusted EBITDA marginOperating marginNet margin

Operating margin rose to 11.5% from 5.4%

Note: Margins are each measure divided by GAAP revenue (DeepCell calculation).Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; analysis of company data

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10 · Margin analysis

Operating cash flow rose 126.7% to $1,097M; FCFbG was $1,242M

Adjusted EBITDA to operating cash flow

$M, Q3 2026

$M · Adjusted EBITDA: $2,013M$M · Interest paid: -$406M$M · Tax paid: -$8M$M · Contract costs: -$338M$M · Working capital: -$164M$M · Operating cash flow: $1,097MAdjustedEBITDAInterest paidTax paidContract costsWorkingcapitalOperating cashflow$0M$500M$1,000M$1,500M$2,000M$2,400M$2,013M-$406M-$8M-$338M-$164M$1,097M
Operating cash flow was $1,097M after $406M of net interest paid

Note: FCFbG is free cash flow before growth investments. Contract costs are gross capitalized contract costs. FCFbG adds back acquisition costs and collateral and deducts maintenance capex.Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; analysis of company data

11

11 · Cash flow and FCFbG

NRG bought back $977M of stock through Oct 31, 97.7% of its 2026 plan

Capital allocation plan

$M unless noted

ItemAmountPeriod
Share repurchases, plan$1,000M2026
Share repurchases, done$977MThrough Oct 31, 2026
Common dividends, plan$407M2026
Common dividends, paid$302MThrough Oct 31, 2026
Pro forma buybacks$3,000M2026–2027
Planned debt reduction$3,000M2027
The annual dividend rises to $2.05 in 2027 from $1.90, up 7.9%

Note: Pro forma figures assume the asset sale closes; they include an incremental $1.0B of buybacks expected to start before the end of Q4 2026.Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; analysis of company data

12

12 · Capital returns

Total liquidity fell to $6,027M after funding the LS Power acquisition

Selected balance sheet items

$M

ItemDec 31, 2025Sep 30, 2026
Cash and cash equivalents$4,708M$148M
Total debt and finance leases$16,443M$22,923M
Net debt$11,735M$22,775M
Total liquidity$9,628M$6,027M
Total stockholders equity$1,681M$5,272M
Liquidity fell $3,601M in nine months

Note: Net debt is total debt and finance leases less cash and cash equivalents (DeepCell calculation).Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; analysis of company data

13

13 · Balance sheet and debt

Interest costs of $302M and the asset sale timing are the main watch points

Indicator
What to watch
Implication
Q3 reading
Interest expense
Adjusted EPS
Higher debt after LS Power deal
Interest $302M, 61.5% YoY
Asset sale closing
2027 buybacks and debt cuts
Needs HSR, FERC and NYSPSC approval
$4.0B cash price
Texas weather
Texas Adjusted EBITDA
Hot summers lift margins
Texas $1,018M, 26.1% YoY
Gas price marks
GAAP net income
Hedge marks swing GAAP
GAAP EPS $2.59

Note: HSR is the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act; FERC is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; NYSPSC is the New York State Public Service Commission. Watch points are analytical, not company targets.Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; analysis of company data

14

14 · Key risks to guidance

Appendix: Segment detail

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Texas economic gross margin$1,541M, 15.9% YoYRetail margins and weather
East economic gross margin$800M, 105.7% YoYAcquired plants and CPower
Vivint economic gross margin$549M, 11.1% YoYCustomer adds and service margin
West/Other Adjusted EBITDA$64M vs. $13MLower costs after a lease expiry

Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; analysis of company data

15

15 · Appendix: Segment detail

Appendix: Profit and EPS

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Adjusted EPS$4.68, up $1.90Basic shares
Adjusted net income$983M, 83.1% YoYAvailable for common stockholders
GAAP net income to common$544MAfter preferred dividends
Depreciation and amortization$510M, 41.7% YoYAcquired assets

Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; analysis of company data

16

16 · Appendix: Profit and EPS

Appendix: Asset sale and funding

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Sale of six gas-fired plants to LS Power$4,000M cash; 4.9 GWClose expected Q2 2027
Assets retainedEntire PJM portfolio and CPowerAcquired January 2026
Planned use of proceeds$3,000M buybacks 2026–2027Plus $2.0B extra debt reduction
Planned 2027 debt reduction$3,000M in total$1.0B base plan plus $2.0B

PJM is PJM Interconnection. Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; analysis of company data

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17 · Appendix: Asset sale and funding

Appendix: Nine-month results

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Revenue, nine months$27,203M, 18.5% YoYvs. nine months 2025
Adjusted EBITDA, nine months$4,310M, 33.0% YoY77.3% of 2026 midpoint
Adjusted EPS, nine months$7.68, 7.1% YoYvs. nine months 2025
FCFbG, nine months$2,201M, 8.2% YoYvs. nine months 2025

FCFbG is free cash flow before growth investments. Source: NRG news release, Nov 9, 2026; analysis of company data

18

18 · Appendix: Nine-month results

19 · Appendix: Income statement

Appendix: sources

  • News release: NRG Energy, Inc., Nov 9, 2026 — https://investors.nrg.com/news-releases/news-release-details/nrg-energy-reports-third-quarter-2026-results-reaffirms-2026
  • Consensus: Zacks Equity Research via Yahoo Finance, Nov 9, 2026 — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nrg-energy-nrg-beats-q3-115501662.html
  • Consensus cross-check: Investing.com, Nov 9, 2026 — https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/nrg-earnings-beat-by-152-revenue-topped-estimates-5011497
  • Guidance: 2026 guidance (reaffirmed) and 2027 guidance (initiated, excluding the planned asset sale), same news release
  • Asset sale: agreement to sell six natural gas plants (4.9 GW) to LS Power for $4.0B, same news release
  • Non-GAAP measures: adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA and FCFbG are company-defined; reconciliations are in the news release appendix
  • Share price: CNBC NRG quote, Nov 6 close and Nov 9 pre-market at 9:03 AM ET — https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/NRG

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20 · Sources

Important disclosures and disclaimer

For information only. This presentation is provided for information only. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and it is not an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security.

No recommendation. It carries no rating, price target or buy, sell or hold view, and it was prepared without regard to any reader's investment objectives, financial situation or needs.

Sources and accuracy. Company figures come from NRG Energy, Inc.'s Nov 9, 2026 news release. Consensus figures come from Zacks (via Yahoo Finance) and Investing.com; the share price comes from CNBC. We have not independently verified third-party data.

Forward-looking statements. Guidance and watch items in this deck are forward-looking. They rest on assumptions that may prove wrong, and actual results may differ materially.

Past performance. Past results, including those for Q3 2026, are not a reliable indicator of future results.

Non-GAAP measures. Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted net income, Adjusted EPS and FCFbG follow NRG's definitions. They supplement, and do not replace, GAAP measures.

No liability. No liability is accepted for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents.

No affiliation. This presentation is not affiliated with, reviewed or endorsed by NRG Energy, Inc. and does not represent its views. Company and brand names belong to their owners.

How it was made. The deck was built with DeepCell, with figures linked to a model in the file. Readers should check the figures against the original filings and consult a qualified professional adviser before making any investment decision.

Date of analysis. Figures are as reported on Nov 9, 2026. The share price is a pre-market indication at 9:03 AM ET on Nov 9, 2026, not a regular-session close.

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21 · Disclosures

Sources

Not investment advice; no rating or price target.

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