Is Anthropic worth the $1,500.0B IPO target, based on the numbers it has filed?

Not on our base case: the filed numbers support about $1,117.4B, short of the $1,500.0B IPO target.

Anthropic · IPO · Published Nov 3, 2026 · Data cut-off: 2026-11-02 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

1 · Cover

Not on our base case: the filed numbers support about $1,117.4B, short of the $1,500.0B IPO target

Exhibit 1: Company value by case, vs the IPO target ($B)

$B, company value in 2026, by case

Company value · Low: 408Company value · Base: 1,117Company value · High: 3,039Company value · IPO target: 1,500LowBaseHighIPO target01,0002,0003,0003,5004081,1173,0391,500Base case to IPO target: 383

The base case falls short of the $1.5T target; reaching it needs Anthropic to earn about 0.7% of global knowledge-worker pay by 2030. The base case is +15.8% against the last private round.

Base-case value$1,117Bcash-flow valuation of the filed numbers
IPO target$1,500Bas reported before pricing
Increase needed34.2%to reach the target
Base case vs last private round+15.8%above the Series H price

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); forecast years from the model.

2 / 16

2 · The answer

Faster growth is needed to reach the IPO target; the IPO-price case lands right at it

Growth is the only lever big enough
What it shows

Growth moves the value more than all other inputs together.

So what

The IPO price bets on faster growth and cheaper compute together, not on a lower discount rate.

Gap from base case to target$383Bfaster growth is the only lever that closes it

Exhibit 2: What moves the value ($B)

$B, company value with one input changed at a time; dashed lines: last private round, IPO target

Low · Discount rate ±1 pt: 995Base case · Discount rate ±1 pt: 1,117Low · Long-run growth ±1 pt: 1,052Base case · Long-run growth ±1 pt: 1,117Low · Revenue growth ±25%: 730Base case · Revenue growth ±25%: 1,117Low · Compute cost −4/+5 pts: 974Base case · Compute cost −4/+5 pts: 1,117Discount rate ±1 ptLong-run growth ±1 ptRevenue growth ±25%Compute cost −4/+5 pts5001,0001,5002,200995–1,2711,052–1,199730–1,695974–1,232Last private round: 965IPO target: 1,500

Growth 25% faster alone or the IPO-price case reaches the target.

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); forecast years from the model.

3 / 16

3 · What moves the value

Revenue reached tens of billions in two years, most of it from pay-per-use customers

How the forecast is built
1 · Start

First half of 2026, as filed: $13.1B pay-per-use, $3.2B subscription.

2 · Rest of 2026

Third quarter $17.0B as filed; the fourth ramps monthly to a $100B year-end run-rate.

3 · 2027 onward

Growth slows each year: pay-per-use 105% to 6%, subscription 85% to 5%.

Exhibit 3: Revenue by type, 2023–2030 ($B)

$B by revenue type; 2023–2025 reported, later years forecast

Pay-per-use · FY2025A: 3.80Pay-per-use · FY2026E: 44.11Pay-per-use · FY2027E: 86.67Pay-per-use · FY2028E: 144.01Pay-per-use · FY2029E: 199.58Pay-per-use · FY2030E: 252.77Subscription · FY2026E: 11.82Subscription · FY2027E: 21.05Subscription · FY2028E: 32.66Subscription · FY2029E: 44.07Subscription · FY2030E: 55.00FY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030E010020030040000556108177244308Growth a year, 2026–30: 53%Pay-per-useSubscription

Pay-per-use leads every year; the low and high cases scale these growth rates.

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); forecast years from the model.

4 / 16

4 · Revenue build

Amazon, Google and Microsoft sell close to half of Anthropic’s revenue

What the filing confirms, and what it does not
Confirmed

Anthropic counts the full sale as revenue; the cloud provider bills the customer and pays Anthropic after its fee.

Not disclosed

How much customers pay with free credits or prepaid budgets from the cloud provider.

Ask

How much of marketplace revenue is paid with cloud-provider credits rather than customers’ own cash?

Exhibit 4: How revenue is sold, share of total

Share of revenue sold through Amazon, Google and Microsoft marketplaces

Cloud marketplaces · FY2023A: 11%Cloud marketplaces · FY2024A: 32%Cloud marketplaces · FY2024A: 32%Cloud marketplaces · FY2025A: 47%Cloud marketplaces · FY2025A: 47%Cloud marketplaces · H1 2026A: 48%Cloud marketplaces · H1 2026A: 48%FY2023AFY2024AFY2025AH1 2026A0%20%40%70%11%32%47%48%Shift to cloud marketplaces: 37%Cloud marketplaces · FY2023A: 11%Cloud marketplaces · FY2024A: 32%Cloud marketplaces · FY2025A: 47%Cloud marketplaces · H1 2026A: 48%

The share eased to 44% in the first nine months of 2026, from 48% in the first half. These providers are also investors, customers and compute suppliers; Google’s loans unlock as revenue targets are met.

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026), revenue recognition note and risk factors.

5 / 16

5 · Channel mix

Gross margin went from negative to software-like as the compute cost of each revenue dollar fell

The cost to serve fell fast
Gross margin

40% in 2025 to 85% in 2026, as running the models got cheaper.

Operating margin

Turns positive at 1% in 2026; after that, costs grow slower than revenue.

Gross margin, 203586%held in the mid-80s throughout

Exhibit 5: Revenue and margins, 2024–2035

Revenue ($B, columns), gross and operating margin (lines)

Revenue ($B) · FY25A: 4.59Revenue ($B) · FY26E: 55.93Revenue ($B) · FY27E: 107.72Revenue ($B) · FY28E: 176.67Revenue ($B) · FY29E: 243.65Revenue ($B) · FY30E: 307.77Revenue ($B) · FY31E: 366.65Revenue ($B) · FY32E: 419.96Revenue ($B) · FY33E: 465.59Revenue ($B) · FY34E: 503.34Revenue ($B) · FY35E: 530.29Gross margin · FY24A: -0.95Gross margin · FY25A: 0.40Gross margin · FY25A: 0.40Gross margin · FY26E: 0.85Gross margin · FY26E: 0.85Gross margin · FY27E: 0.84Gross margin · FY27E: 0.84Gross margin · FY28E: 0.85Gross margin · FY28E: 0.85Gross margin · FY29E: 0.86Gross margin · FY29E: 0.86Gross margin · FY30E: 0.86Gross margin · FY30E: 0.86Gross margin · FY31E: 0.86Gross margin · FY31E: 0.86Gross margin · FY32E: 0.87Gross margin · FY32E: 0.87Gross margin · FY33E: 0.87Gross margin · FY33E: 0.87Gross margin · FY34E: 0.87Gross margin · FY34E: 0.87Gross margin · FY35E: 0.86Gross margin · FY35E: 0.86Operating margin · FY25A: -1.76Operating margin · FY25A: -1.76Operating margin · FY26E: 0.01Operating margin · FY26E: 0.01Operating margin · FY27E: 0.08Operating margin · FY27E: 0.08Operating margin · FY28E: 0.17Operating margin · FY28E: 0.17Operating margin · FY29E: 0.23Operating margin · FY29E: 0.23Operating margin · FY30E: 0.29Operating margin · FY30E: 0.29Operating margin · FY31E: 0.33Operating margin · FY31E: 0.33Operating margin · FY32E: 0.36Operating margin · FY32E: 0.36Operating margin · FY33E: 0.37Operating margin · FY33E: 0.37Operating margin · FY34E: 0.37Operating margin · FY34E: 0.37Operating margin · FY35E: 0.37Operating margin · FY35E: 0.37FY24AFY25AFY26EFY27EFY28EFY29EFY30EFY31EFY32EFY33EFY34EFY35E0200400600-200%-100%0%100%Gross margin gain: 45%Revenue ($B)Gross marginOperating marginGross margin · FY24A: -0.95Gross margin · FY25A: 0.40Gross margin · FY26E: 0.85Gross margin · FY27E: 0.84Gross margin · FY28E: 0.85Gross margin · FY29E: 0.86Gross margin · FY30E: 0.86Gross margin · FY31E: 0.86Gross margin · FY32E: 0.87Gross margin · FY33E: 0.87Gross margin · FY34E: 0.87Gross margin · FY35E: 0.86Operating margin · FY25A: -1.76Operating margin · FY26E: 0.01Operating margin · FY27E: 0.08Operating margin · FY28E: 0.17Operating margin · FY29E: 0.23Operating margin · FY30E: 0.29Operating margin · FY31E: 0.33Operating margin · FY32E: 0.36Operating margin · FY33E: 0.37Operating margin · FY34E: 0.37Operating margin · FY35E: 0.37

Most of the gain already shows in the filed first nine months of 2026.

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); forecast years from the model.

6 / 16

6 · Unit economics

Signed compute runs ahead of base-case needs to 2030, so a revenue miss hits profit directly

Commitments are fixed; revenue is not
Signed

$895B committed at Sept 30, $448B of it due before 2031.

Short to 2030

The base case spends $377B on compute to 2030; if revenue grows slower, the bill stays the same.

Forecast compute vs commitments due0.84xOct 2026 to 2030, base case

Exhibit 6: Signed compute vs forecast spend ($B)

$B, deals named at June 30 by supplier, against forecast compute spend 2026–2033

Signed or forecast · Broadcom: 161Signed or forecast · TPU: 125Signed or forecast · SpaceX: 121Signed or forecast · Google: 115Signed or forecast · Amazon: 110Signed or forecast · Others: 131Signed or forecast · Signed: 762Signed or forecast · Forecast: 811BroadcomTPUSpaceXGoogleAmazonOthersSignedForecast02505007501,000161125121115110131762811Cushion: 49

The named deals leave a thin cushion to 2033; commitments due by 2030 exceed base-case spend.

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); forecast years from the model.

7 / 16

7 · Compute commitments

Most of the value comes from after 2035, beyond the years we forecast

The years after 2035 carry the value
After 2035

$614B in today’s money.

Cash

$134B added on top of the business value.

Share of value from after 203562%rests on long-run assumptions

Exhibit 7: From cash flows to company value, vs the IPO target ($B)

$B, from forecast cash flows to company value, in today’s money

Value · Cash flow 2027–35: 370Value · After 2035: 614Value · Business: 984Value · Net cash: 134Value · Company: 1,117Value · IPO target: 1,500Cash flow2027–35After 2035BusinessNet cashCompanyIPO target05001,0001,5002,0002,4003706149841341,1171,500Gap to IPO target: 383

The gap to the $1.5T target ($383B) is within reach of 2027–2035 cash flows ($370B).

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); forecast years from the model.

8 / 16

8 · Valuation bridge

Three facts from the filing support paying a premium for this business

Customers spend more every year

Existing customers now spend about nine times what they did a year ago; that is the growth engine.

Revenue, 2026 vs 202512.2xfiled nine months plus forecast fourth quarter
Each new dollar costs less to serve

Revenue grows much faster than headcount, so costs already fall as a share of every dollar earned.

Operating margin swing, 2025 to 2026+177%from deep loss to profit in one year
It does not need to raise more money

Cash on hand pays for the build-out without new debt, even before the IPO money arrives.

Cash and investments, Sept 30, 2026$131.8Bas filed

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); forecast years from the model.

9 / 16

9 · What supports a premium

Slower growth is the costliest risk; lawsuits and rising data-centre spending are not yet in the numbers

Not in the numbers yet
Lawsuits

Copyright, competition and government cases have no cost estimate; only the Bartz settlement has a figure.

Data centres

Management expects spending on owned data centres to rise sharply; the model keeps it at a few percent of revenue.

Also missing

Future share issuance, and marketplace revenue paid with cloud credits.

Exhibit 8: What each risk costs: company value if it happens ($B)

$B, company value if one risk happens; lines: base case and last private round

Company value if it happens · Growth a quarter slower: 730Company value if it happens · Compute 5 pts costlier: 974Company value if it happens · Discount rate +1 pt: 995Company value if it happens · Long-run growth 1 pt lower: 1,052Growth a quarter slowerCompute 5 pts costlierDiscount rate +1 ptLong-run growth 1 pt lower02505007501,0001,4007309749951,052Base case: 1,117Last private round: 965

Shaky revenue and falling prices show up here as slower growth; weak shareholder control as a higher discount rate.

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); forecast years from the model.

10 / 16

10 · Risks

In the low case growth fades early and the value falls well below the last private round

Slower growth, not a broken business
Assumes

AI does 5% of knowledge work by 2030, so Anthropic earns 0.25% of the pay; compute costs more.

In 2030

Revenue $128B at a 23% operating margin.

Company value, low case$408Bbelow the last private round

Exhibit 9: Low case: revenue and operating margin

Revenue ($B, columns) and operating margin (line)

Revenue ($B) · FY26E: 55.93Revenue ($B) · FY27E: 78.01Revenue ($B) · FY28E: 99.28Revenue ($B) · FY29E: 115.31Revenue ($B) · FY30E: 128.24Revenue ($B) · FY31E: 138.69Revenue ($B) · FY32E: 147.28Revenue ($B) · FY33E: 154.09Revenue ($B) · FY34E: 159.41Revenue ($B) · FY35E: 163.04Operating margin · FY26E: 0.01Operating margin · FY27E: 0.04Operating margin · FY27E: 0.04Operating margin · FY28E: 0.12Operating margin · FY28E: 0.12Operating margin · FY29E: 0.18Operating margin · FY29E: 0.18Operating margin · FY30E: 0.23Operating margin · FY30E: 0.23Operating margin · FY31E: 0.28Operating margin · FY31E: 0.28Operating margin · FY32E: 0.31Operating margin · FY32E: 0.31Operating margin · FY33E: 0.32Operating margin · FY33E: 0.32Operating margin · FY34E: 0.32Operating margin · FY34E: 0.32Operating margin · FY35E: 0.32Operating margin · FY35E: 0.32FY26EFY27EFY28EFY29EFY30EFY31EFY32EFY33EFY34EFY35E02505007501,0000%10%20%30%40%50%Growth a year, 2026–30: 23%Revenue ($B)Operating marginOperating margin · FY26E: 0.01Operating margin · FY27E: 0.04Operating margin · FY28E: 0.12Operating margin · FY29E: 0.18Operating margin · FY30E: 0.23Operating margin · FY31E: 0.28Operating margin · FY32E: 0.31Operating margin · FY33E: 0.32Operating margin · FY34E: 0.32Operating margin · FY35E: 0.32

Margins still grow, on less revenue.

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); forecast years from the model.

11 / 16

11 · Bear world

In the base case revenue keeps compounding for five more years and margins mature by 2032

Growth carries the value; margin follows
Assumes

Growth slows steadily from today’s pace; compute starts above half of revenue.

In 2030

Revenue $308B at a 29% operating margin.

Business value, base case$984Bbefore adding cash

Exhibit 10: Base case: revenue and operating margin

Revenue ($B, columns) and operating margin (line)

Revenue ($B) · FY26E: 55.93Revenue ($B) · FY27E: 107.72Revenue ($B) · FY28E: 176.67Revenue ($B) · FY29E: 243.65Revenue ($B) · FY30E: 307.77Revenue ($B) · FY31E: 366.65Revenue ($B) · FY32E: 419.96Revenue ($B) · FY33E: 465.59Revenue ($B) · FY34E: 503.34Revenue ($B) · FY35E: 530.29Operating margin · FY26E: 0.01Operating margin · FY27E: 0.08Operating margin · FY27E: 0.08Operating margin · FY28E: 0.17Operating margin · FY28E: 0.17Operating margin · FY29E: 0.23Operating margin · FY29E: 0.23Operating margin · FY30E: 0.29Operating margin · FY30E: 0.29Operating margin · FY31E: 0.33Operating margin · FY31E: 0.33Operating margin · FY32E: 0.36Operating margin · FY32E: 0.36Operating margin · FY33E: 0.37Operating margin · FY33E: 0.37Operating margin · FY34E: 0.37Operating margin · FY34E: 0.37Operating margin · FY35E: 0.37Operating margin · FY35E: 0.37FY26EFY27EFY28EFY29EFY30EFY31EFY32EFY33EFY34EFY35E02505007501,0000%10%20%30%40%50%Growth a year, 2026–30: 53%Revenue ($B)Operating marginOperating margin · FY26E: 0.01Operating margin · FY27E: 0.08Operating margin · FY28E: 0.17Operating margin · FY29E: 0.23Operating margin · FY30E: 0.29Operating margin · FY31E: 0.33Operating margin · FY32E: 0.36Operating margin · FY33E: 0.37Operating margin · FY34E: 0.37Operating margin · FY35E: 0.37

Margins settle as growth slows.

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); forecast years from the model.

12 / 16

12 · Base world

The IPO-price case: Anthropic earns 0.7% of global knowledge-worker pay

This is the latest price talk
Assumes

AI does 14% of knowledge work by 2030, so Anthropic earns 0.7% of the pay; compute 4 points of revenue cheaper.

In 2030

Revenue $364B at a 33% operating margin.

Company value, IPO-price case$1,501Bmatches the latest IPO price talk

Exhibit 11: IPO-price case: revenue and operating margin

Revenue ($B, columns) and operating margin (line)

Revenue ($B) · FY26E: 55.93Revenue ($B) · FY27E: 114.30Revenue ($B) · FY28E: 196.77Revenue ($B) · FY29E: 280.87Revenue ($B) · FY30E: 364.19Revenue ($B) · FY31E: 442.73Revenue ($B) · FY32E: 515.29Revenue ($B) · FY33E: 578.40Revenue ($B) · FY34E: 631.28Revenue ($B) · FY35E: 669.39Operating margin · FY26E: 0.01Operating margin · FY27E: 0.12Operating margin · FY27E: 0.12Operating margin · FY28E: 0.20Operating margin · FY28E: 0.20Operating margin · FY29E: 0.27Operating margin · FY29E: 0.27Operating margin · FY30E: 0.33Operating margin · FY30E: 0.33Operating margin · FY31E: 0.37Operating margin · FY31E: 0.37Operating margin · FY32E: 0.4Operating margin · FY32E: 0.4Operating margin · FY33E: 0.41Operating margin · FY33E: 0.41Operating margin · FY34E: 0.41Operating margin · FY34E: 0.41Operating margin · FY35E: 0.41Operating margin · FY35E: 0.41FY26EFY27EFY28EFY29EFY30EFY31EFY32EFY33EFY34EFY35E02505007501,0000%10%20%30%40%50%Growth a year, 2026–30: 60%Revenue ($B)Operating marginOperating margin · FY26E: 0.01Operating margin · FY27E: 0.12Operating margin · FY28E: 0.20Operating margin · FY29E: 0.27Operating margin · FY30E: 0.33Operating margin · FY31E: 0.37Operating margin · FY32E: 0.4Operating margin · FY33E: 0.41Operating margin · FY34E: 0.41Operating margin · FY35E: 0.41

Growth and compute costs both have to improve.

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); price talk: Reuters, Oct 15, 2026; forecast years from the model.

13 / 16

13 · IPO-price world

It needs 34.2% more value: earning 0.71% of global knowledge-worker pay, with compute 4 pts cheaper, reaches it

Company value, $B: revenue growth vs base case (rows), compute saving in points of revenue (columns)
Company value (equity, all holders)
↓ Revenue growth vs bottom-up build (from 2027) → Compute saving, points of revenue (from 2027)(5.0%)-4.0%8.0%
0.67x641.2730.5801.9873.3
0.92x973.71,117.41,232.31,347.3
1.17x1,471.01,694.91,874.02,053.2
1.42x2,195.42,535.12,806.83,078.5

The target is reached in the IPO-price case (+13% growth, −4 pts compute) and across the lower-right area. Faster growth alone gets there at 1.25 times the base rate.

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); forecast years from the model.

14 / 16

14 · What it takes

The base case falls short of the IPO target; reaching it requires Anthropic to earn 0.7% of global knowledge-worker pay

BELOW TARGET
Value per share$65.97base-case cash-flow valuation
IPO target per share$88.56same share count
Last private round$965BSeries H valuation
What would change our view

AI doing 14% of knowledge work by 2030 (0.7% of pay to Anthropic) plus compute four points of revenue cheaper reaches the target; earlier $2T talk is out of reach.

What would lower it

Weaker shareholder control would lower the value: a discount rate one point higher puts it well below $1,117.4B

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); forecast years from the model.

15 / 16

15 · The decision

Questions the committee will ask, with the model’s answers

What is the value per share?

About $65.97 per share, counting all shares, against $88.56 at the IPO target

Compute rose to 58% of revenue in the third quarter of 2026; is the forecast for 2026 and 2027 too low?

2026 already carries the third-quarter ratio and lands at 57.2%; 2027 at 55.0% assumes costly short-term compute gives way to contracted capacity

Does the model’s low data-centre spending hide the build-out?

Partly: leased compute, including the Broadcom leases, is counted in compute costs, but owned data centres beyond the planned spending are not

How much could the copyright, competition and government cases cost?

Unknown: only the Bartz settlement has a figure; the filing gives no estimate for the rest.

Source: Anthropic, PBC — Form S-1/A registration statement (Nov 2, 2026); forecast years from the model.

16 / 16

16 · Appendix: questions

Sources

Not investment advice; no rating or price target.

Built in DeepCell Every figure on these slides opens its formula and its source. See how a review like this is made.

Share this review

Send the link: it opens with the picture below, and every number on the page still opens its formula and source. The picture is free to download and share.

Post on XShare on LinkedIn

More earnings reviews

All earnings reviews

  • Palantir · Q3 2026

    Palantir Q3 2026 earnings review

    Q3 revenue beat the LSEG consensus by 6.1%, and Palantir raised its 2026 revenue guidance midpoint by $378M.

    Nov 3, 202621 slides

  • Apple · Q4 FY2026

    Apple Q4 FY2026 earnings review

    Q4 net sales beat the LSEG consensus by 1.0%, but the December-quarter growth guide trailed it.

    Nov 3, 202621 slides

  • Estée Lauder · Q1 FY2027 (Jul-Sep 2026)

    Estée Lauder Q1 FY2027 earnings review

    Q1 adjusted EPS beat the LSEG consensus by 41%, and full-year guidance rose.

    Nov 2, 202621 slides

  • IDEXX Laboratories · Q3 2026 (Jul-Sep 2026)

    IDEXX Q3 2026 earnings review

    Q3 diluted EPS beat the FactSet consensus by 7.5%, and full-year guidance rose.

    Nov 2, 202621 slides

  • Tempus AI · Q3 2026 (Jul-Sep 2026)

    Tempus AI Q3 2026 earnings review

    Q3 revenue rose 23.1% to $411.5M, beating the LSEG consensus, and adjusted EBITDA turned clearly positive.

    Nov 2, 202621 slides