Intel Q3 2026 earnings review
Quarter ended September 26, 2026
For information only, not investment advice. No rating or price target.
Earnings reviews · 21 slides · By Jieqin Mo
Not investment advice; no rating or price target.
1 · Cover · Open this slide in DeepCell
Q3 beat, but Q4 guidance came in below consensus
- 1.Intel beat on Q3 earnings, while revenue only matched consensus
- 2.Q4 guidance fell short, and Intel sees the PC slowdown lasting through 1H27
- 3.Data center sales drove all of the revenue growth as PC chip revenue declined
- 4.Capex equaled 83.0% of operating cash flow, leaving little free cash flow
- 5.Shares fell in after-hours trading after the release
Note: DCAI is Data Center and AI; CCPG is Client Computing and Physical AI Group.
“PC chips” is shorthand for CCPG, which also includes Physical AI. Q3 2026 is the quarter ended Sep 26, 2026, compared with the quarter ended Sep 27, 2025. The beat versus consensus is measured on non-GAAP EPS, while revenue is GAAP net revenue.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
2 · Key takeaways · Open this slide in DeepCell
Q3 non-GAAP EPS beat the LSEG consensus by 30.0%, while revenue came in line
Q3 2026 results vs consensus
| Metric | Actual | Consensus | Variance | vs Street |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.52 | $0.40 | +$0.12 / +30.0% | Beat |
| Revenue | $16.51B | $16.50B | +$0.01B / +0.1% | In line |
| Non-GAAP operating margin | 19.6% | 16.5% | +308 bps | Beat |
Share price reaction to the after-the-close release on Oct 29, 2026
| Price point | Time (ET) | INTC price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular-session close | Oct 29, 4:00 PM | $92.07 | Public.com |
| After-hours price | Oct 29, 8:00 PM | $70.87 | Public.com |
| Change in share price | Close to after-hours | -23.0% | Analysis |
Intel posted the release at 4:01 PM ET, and EDGAR accepted the 8-K at 4:08 PM ET. After-hours volume is thin, so a single 8:00 PM ET quote may not hold into the next regular session; prices are from Public.com.
Note: Consensus is from LSEG via CNBC (EPS, revenue) and Seeking Alpha (margin), as of Oct 29, before the release. Seeking Alpha cited Q3 EPS of $0.41 and revenue of $16.54B. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.52 excludes items such as divestiture gains and the Escrowed Shares mark-to-market, so it differs from GAAP EPS of $0.60.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; LSEG via CNBC, Seeking Alpha and Public.com, Oct 29, 2026; analysis based on company data
3 · Q3 versus Wall Street consensus · Open this slide in DeepCell
Q4 non-GAAP EPS guidance came in 41.9% below consensus, implying downside to Street Q4 estimates
Q4 2026 guidance vs consensus
| Metric | Guidance | Consensus | Variance | vs Street |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (midpoint) | $15.50B | $17.10B | -$1.60B / -9.4% | Miss |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.25 | $0.43 | -$0.18 / -41.9% | Miss |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 38.0% | 42.8% | -480 bps | Miss |
Q4 2026 guidance vs Q3 2026 actual
| Metric | Q3 2026 actual | Q4 2026 guidance | Change | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 44.1% | 38.0% | -611 bps | Guide less actual |
| Revenue | $16.5B | $15.0B–$16.0B | n.a. | Guidance range |
| GAAP EPS | $0.60 | $0.10 | n.a. | Guidance |
| Kiryat Gat, Israel fab accident | Mid-October halt | Q4 charges expected | Not estimated | 10-Q MD&A |
Note: Variance is guidance less consensus, not a forecast. Consensus is as of Oct 29, before the release; Q4 guidance is the company outlook in the Oct 29 release; GAAP and non-GAAP guidance differ by the items non-GAAP excludes. Seeking Alpha cited Q4 revenue at $17.05B.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; Intel Form 10-Q, Oct 30, 2026; LSEG via CNBC and Seeking Alpha, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
4 · Guidance and estimate changes · Open this slide in DeepCell
GAAP operating income rose 269.3%, but GAAP net income fell 18.3% on a year-ago divestiture gain
- DCAI drove revenue growthDCAI revenue grew fastest of any segment on strong Xeon demand.
- Non-GAAP net income rose fasterNon-GAAP net income attributable to Intel rose 169.4%, as it excludes the year-ago Altera gain.
- Capex and operating cash flowGross capex equaled 83.0% of operating cash flow in Q3.
Key figures in $M and YoY % for Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025
| $M unless noted | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13,653M | $16,513M | 20.9% |
| GAAP operating income | $683M | $2,522M | 269.3% |
| GAAP net income attributable to Intel | $4,063M | $3,320M | (18.3%) |
| GAAP diluted EPS ($) | $0.90 | $0.60 | (33.3%) |
| Free cash flow | ($410M) | $863M | n.m. |
n.m.: not meaningful; free cash flow was negative in Q3 2025.
Note: DCAI is Data Center and AI. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less gross capex. Net income and EPS are GAAP and attributable to Intel, so they exclude income attributable to non-controlling interests ($200M in Q3 2026). GAAP net income fell while operating income rose, as interest and other, net dropped from $3,670M to $1,130M.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
5 · Q3 at a glance · Open this slide in DeepCell
DCAI revenue jumped 77.8% and earned the highest margin, while CCPG revenue fell
Segment revenue, revenue YoY, operating income and operating margin
$M unless noted, Q3 2026 (YoY vs Q3 2025)
| Segment | Revenue | Revenue YoY | Operating income | Operating margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCPG | $8,097M | (5.1%) | $2,285M | 28.2% |
| DCAI | $7,318M | 77.8% | $3,039M | 41.5% |
| Intel Foundry | $6,697M | 58.1% | ($1,853M) | (27.7%) |
| All Other | $692M | (30.3%) | $179M | 25.9% |
| Corporate unallocated | — | n.a. | ($1,058M) | n.a. |
| Eliminations | ($6,291M) | n.m. | ($70M) | n.a. |
Intel expects the PC slowdown to last at least through the first half of 2027
Note: DCAI is Data Center and AI; CCPG is Client Computing and Physical AI Group. Operating margin is segment operating income divided by segment revenue. Eliminations remove intersegment sales; consolidated revenue was $16,513M. Segment operating income excludes corporate unallocated expenses ($1,058M in Q3 2026), which Intel reports separately.Source: Intel Form 10-Q, Oct 30, 2026, Note 2: Operating Segments; analysis based on company data
6 · Segment overview · Open this slide in DeepCell
DCAI accounted for 111.9% of the revenue increase, as the other segments netted to a decline
DCAI share of total revenue
% of revenue, Q3 2025 vs Q3 2026
CCPG revenue fell $438M year over year
Note: DCAI is Data Center and AI; CCPG is Client Computing and Physical AI Group. DCAI share is DCAI revenue as a percentage of total revenue. Share of the increase is the DCAI revenue change divided by the total change; it tops 100% as the rest was a net drag.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
7 · Where revenue growth came from · Open this slide in DeepCell
Eliminations offset 83.8% of Foundry revenue growth, as most of it came from intersegment sales
Intersegment sales lift Foundry’s reported growth and drop out on consolidation
Revenue change by segment
$M, Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025
Note: DCAI is Data Center and AI; CCPG is Client Computing and Physical AI Group. Bars are each segment’s YoY revenue change and sum to the total revenue increase. The absorbed share is the increase in eliminations divided by the increase in Foundry revenue. Most Foundry revenue is sales to Intel Products: eliminations of $6,291M offset most of Foundry’s $6,697M in Q3 2026.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
8 · Revenue change by segment · Open this slide in DeepCell
GAAP net income fell and non-GAAP net income rose, as Q3 2025 included a $5,452M divestiture gain
GAAP net income attributable to Intel
$M, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026
Interest and other income fell as the Altera sale gain dropped out
Note: Steps show YoY changes, with tax and minority interests shown as reductions. Q3 2026 includes a $1,005M mark-to-market gain on Escrowed Shares, which non-GAAP results exclude. Q3 2025 included a $5,452M divestiture gain, which non-GAAP results also exclude.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
9 · The profit caveat · Open this slide in DeepCell
Incremental operating margin reached 64.3% as opex held flat, but Q4 guidance points lower
GAAP gross and operating margin
% of revenue, Q3 2025 vs Q3 2026
GAAP operating expenses rose just 0.9% YoY
Note: Incremental operating margin is the YoY change in GAAP operating income divided by the YoY change in revenue. Margins are gross profit and operating income as a percentage of revenue. GAAP results include restructuring and other charges of $175M in Q3 2025 and $54M in Q3 2026.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
10 · Margins · Open this slide in DeepCell
Partner contributions were 51.7% of adjusted free cash flow; free cash flow was $863M without them
Operating cash flow to adjusted free cash flow
$M, Q3 2026
Operating cash flow still covered gross capex in Q3
Note: Free cash flow (FCF) is operating cash flow (OCF) less gross capex. Adjusted FCF (non-GAAP) adds incentives and net Semiconductor Co-Investment Program (SCIP) partner contributions, less finance leases; partners’ share is SCIP contributions divided by adjusted FCF. Adjusted FCF is a company non-GAAP measure, so it differs from FCF as defined here.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
11 · Cash versus profit · Open this slide in DeepCell
Gross capex grew 42.7%, faster than revenue, and free cash flow was $863M
Note: Gross capex is additions to property, plant and equipment. Capex rose 42.7% YoY, faster than revenue growth of 20.9%. Gross capex is before capital-related government incentives ($48M) and net partner contributions ($847M), which offset part of the spending.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
12 · Capex · Open this slide in DeepCell
Net cash reached $3,871M, reflecting a $22,617M equity offering rather than operating cash flow
Note: Net cash is cash and short-term investments less total debt. The offering closed on August 12, 2026. Changes are for the nine months since Dec 27, 2025, so they are not comparable with the Q3 2025 quarter figures used on other pages.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
13 · Balance sheet · Open this slide in DeepCell
Q4 earnings estimates depend on DCAI supply, CCPG demand and gross margin
Indicator
What to watch
Implication
Q3 reading
DCAI revenue
Q4 DCAI growth slows on tight CPU supply
Q4 DCAI estimates could fall
DCAI revenue grew 77.8% YoY
Note: DCAI is Data Center and AI; CCPG is Client Computing and Physical AI Group. These are analytical watch points, not company targets. Q3 readings are reported Q3 2026 figures, and inventories are as of Sep 26, 2026.Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
14 · Risks to estimates · Open this slide in DeepCell
Appendix: supporting analysis for segments
| Claim | Evidence | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| DCAI operating income grew faster than DCAI revenue | DCAI operating income +215.2%; DCAI operating margin 23.4% in Q3 2025 to 41.5% in Q3 2026 | Segment operating income divided by segment revenue |
| Intel Foundry still lost money | Foundry operating loss ($2,321M) in Q3 2025 and ($1,853M) in Q3 2026 | Segment operating income (loss) |
| Intel Products revenue grew with DCAI | Intel Products revenue $12,652M to $15,415M | Sum of CCPG and DCAI revenue |
DCAI is Data Center and AI; CCPG is Client Computing and Physical AI Group. Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
15 · Supporting analysis (1/4) · Open this slide in DeepCell
Appendix: supporting analysis for profit, margins and cash
| Claim | Evidence | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| Non-GAAP profit excludes nonrecurring gains | Non-GAAP net income attributable to Intel rose from $1,023M to $2,756M; non-GAAP EPS rose from $0.23 to $0.52 | Company reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP |
| Non-GAAP operating margin rose | Non-GAAP operating margin 11.2% to 19.6% | Non-GAAP operating income divided by revenue |
| Adjusted free cash flow improved | Adjusted free cash flow was $896M in Q3 2025; partner contributions were $1,346M | OCF − gross capex + incentives and partner contributions − finance leases |
OCF is operating cash flow. Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
16 · Supporting analysis (2/4) · Open this slide in DeepCell
Appendix: guidance, capex and balance sheet support
| Claim | Evidence | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| Capex exceeded operating cash flow a year earlier | Gross capex was 116.1% of operating cash flow in Q3 2025 | Gross capex divided by OCF |
| Inventories rose in 2026 | Inventories were $11,618M at Dec 27, 2025 | Balance sheet comparison |
| Undrawn credit lines add liquidity | Committed credit facilities total $15,000M after amendment, all undrawn | Form 10-Q liquidity section |
| GAAP and non-GAAP guides differ | Q4 GAAP tax rate guide 31%; Q4 non-GAAP opex guide $4,400M | As stated in the release outlook |
Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; Intel Form 10-Q, Oct 30, 2026; analysis based on company data
17 · Supporting analysis (3/4) · Open this slide in DeepCell
Appendix: watch items behind guidance and risks
| Claim | Evidence | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| PC outlook (release) | The CFO sees the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half of next year | Quoted in the earnings release |
| GAAP EPS exceeded non-GAAP EPS | Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.08 below GAAP EPS in Q3 2026 | Escrowed Shares gain is excluded from non-GAAP |
| DCAI watch item | Q4 DCAI revenue growth well below the Q3 pace would signal supply limits | DCAI revenue YoY |
| CCPG watch item | A deeper CCPG revenue decline would shrink a major profit pool | CCPG revenue YoY |
| Gross margin watch item | A Q4 GAAP gross margin below the guide would reverse Q3 gains | Gross profit divided by revenue |
DCAI is Data Center and AI; CCPG is Client Computing and Physical AI Group. Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
18 · Supporting analysis (4/4) · Open this slide in DeepCell
Appendix: income statement and cash flow detail
Operating cost and tax detail, $M and YoY %
| $M unless noted | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research and development | $3,231M | $3,490M | 8.0% |
| Marketing, general and administrative | $1,129M | $1,030M | (8.8%) |
| Income before taxes | $4,574M | $3,982M | n.m. |
| Provision for taxes | $304M | $462M | 52.0% |
Cash flow detail, $M and YoY %
| $M unless noted | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $2,546M | $5,082M | 99.6% |
| Investing cash flow | ($6,250M) | ($19,590M) | n.m. |
| Financing cash flow | $5,152M | $23,309M | n.m. |
n.m.: not meaningful.
Source: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026; analysis of company data
19 · Appendix: financial detail · Open this slide in DeepCell
Appendix: sources
- Filing: Intel Form 8-K, Oct 29, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086326000188/0000050863-26-000188.txt
- Filing: Intel Form 10-Q, Oct 30, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086326000191/intc-20260926.htm
- Consensus (results and guidance): CNBC/LSEG, Oct 29 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/intel-intc-q3-earnings-report-2026-.html
- Consensus (results and guidance): Seeking Alpha/TradingView, Oct 29 — https://www.tradingview.com/news/seekingalpha:6b120d5e0094b:0-intel-crashes-as-q3-results-guidance-miss-wall-street-s-forecasts/
- Prices (share price reaction): Public.com after-hours history, read Oct 30 — https://public.com/stocks/intc/after-hours; close cross-checked on Yahoo Finance — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/
- Release time: Intel press release 4:01 PM ET; EDGAR 8-K acceptance 4:08 PM ET — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086326000188/0000050863-26-000188-index.htm
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20 · Sources · Open this slide in DeepCell
Important disclosures and disclaimer
For information only. This presentation is provided for information only. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and it is not an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security.
No recommendation. It carries no rating, price target or buy, sell or hold view, and it was prepared without regard to any reader's investment objectives, financial situation or needs.
Sources and accuracy. Company figures come from Intel's Form 8-K (Exhibit 99.1) and Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 26, 2026. Consensus estimates (LSEG via CNBC, Seeking Alpha) and share prices (Public.com, cross-checked on Yahoo Finance) are third-party data, credited on the sources page. We have not independently verified third-party data and make no warranty that any information here is accurate, complete or timely. After-hours prices come from thin trading and may not reflect regular-session levels.
Forward-looking statements. Company guidance, consensus estimates and the watch items in this deck are forward-looking. They rest on assumptions that may prove wrong, and actual results may differ materially.
Past performance. Past results and share price moves, including those for Q3 2026, are not a reliable indicator of future results.
Non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP figures follow Intel's own definitions, which exclude certain items such as the year-ago divestiture gain. They supplement, and do not replace, GAAP results, and they may not be comparable with other companies' measures. Intel's earnings release reconciles them to GAAP.
No liability. No liability is accepted for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents.
No affiliation. This presentation is not affiliated with, reviewed or endorsed by Intel Corporation and does not represent Intel's views. Company and product names belong to their owners.
How it was made. The deck was built with DeepCell, with figures linked to a model in the file. Readers should check the figures against the original filings and consult a qualified professional adviser before making any investment decision.
Date of analysis. The analysis reflects information available as of October 30, 2026. It will not be updated for later events, and views may change without notice.
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21 · Important disclosures · Open this slide in DeepCell