Moderna Q3 2026 earnings review

Revenue rose 29.2% and beat LSEG, and Moderna raised 2026 growth guidance to 15%-25%.

Moderna, Inc. · Q3 2026 · Published Nov 6, 2026 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

Moderna Q3 2026 earnings review

Quarter ended September 30, 2026

For information only, not investment advice. No rating or price target.

Built with DeepCell / deepcell.net

1 · Moderna (MRNA) Q3 2026 earnings review

Revenue rose 29.2% and beat LSEG, and Moderna raised 2026 growth guidance to 15%-25%

  1. 1.Revenue of $1.3B beat the LSEG consensus of $0.9B by 48.3%
  2. 2.Diluted EPS of $0.38 beat the LSEG consensus of -$1.25
  3. 3.Net income was $162M, versus a loss of -$200M a year earlier
  4. 4.2026 revenue growth guidance rose to 15% to 25%, from up to 10%
  5. 5.Ending cash outlook rose to $8.1B-$8.3B, from $4.7B-$5.2B
  6. 6.Shares traded at $242.25 in Nov 6 premarket, +0.3% vs. the Nov 5 close

Note: LSEG is London Stock Exchange Group. Premarket is not a close.Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; LSEG via CNBC, Nov 6, 2026; Yahoo Finance and Nasdaq prices

2

2 · Executive summary

Q3 revenue beat LSEG by 48.3%, and diluted EPS beat by +$1.63

Q3 2026 results vs. LSEG consensus (via CNBC, Nov 6, 2026)

MetricActualConsensusVarianceResult
Total revenue$1,313M$885M+$428M / +48.3%Beat
Diluted EPS$0.38-$1.25+$1.63 / +130.4%Beat

Share price, Nov 5 close to Nov 6 premarket

Moderna (Nasdaq)Nov 5 closeNov 6 premarketChange ($)Change (%)
MRNA$241.46$242.25+$0.79+0.3%

Nov 5 is the regular-session close (Yahoo Finance). Nov 6 is Nasdaq premarket at 9:05 AM ET, not a close.

Note: EPS % uses the absolute value of the LSEG loss estimate as the base.Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; LSEG via CNBC, Nov 6, 2026; Yahoo Finance; Nasdaq quote

3

3 · Q3 results vs. consensus

2026 revenue growth guidance rose to 15% to 25%, and ending cash rose by $3,250M at the midpoint

2026 growth and cash framework, Nov 6 vs. Jul 31

MetricJul 31 outlookNov 6 outlookChange
Revenue growth vs. 2025Up to 10%15% to 25%High end +1500 bps
Ending cash and investments$4.7B to $5.2B$8.1B to $8.3B+$3,250M midpoint
Implied 2026 revenue (× 2025 base)$2.1B prior high$2.2B to $2.4B$2.3B mid

2026 expense and capex outlook, Nov 6 vs. Jul 31

MetricJul 31 outlookNov 6 outlookChange
Research and development$2.9B$2.7B-$0.2B
Selling, general and administrative$1.0B$1.0BUnchanged
Cost of sales$1.7B$1.7BUnchanged
Capital expenditures$0.2B–$0.3B$0.2BNarrowed to low end

Note: Implied revenue uses 2025 total revenue from the Form 10-K. No named FY consensus was found.Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Jul 31, 2026 (prior guidance); analysis of company data ; Form 10-K FY 2025

4

4 · 2026 guidance

Revenue rose 29.2% and operating income turned positive at $130M

  1. Product sales drove growthNet product sales rose 30.8% to $1.3B.
  2. R&D fellR&D expenses fell 27.2% to $583M.
  3. Cash rose from JuneCash and investments were $8.0B at Sep 30, up from $6.9B.

Key figures

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Total revenue$1,016M$1,313M29.2%
Operating income (loss)-$260M$130Mn.m.
Net income (loss)-$200M$162Mn.m.
Diluted EPS ($)-$0.51$0.38n.m.

Note: n.m. means not meaningful, as Q3 2025 was a loss. Figures are GAAP as reported.Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

5

5 · Q3 key financials

U.S. revenue was $780M and international revenue was $533M in Q3

Revenue by geography

$M, Q3 2026

GeographyRevenueShare of total
United States$780M59.4%
International$533M40.6%
Total$1,313M100.0%
Growth was led by higher COVID vaccine sales in international markets

Note: Geography is company-provided for Q3 2026 only.Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

6

6 · Revenue by geography

7 · Revenue bridge

8 · Revenue by region

Operating income rose to $130M as lower R&D added $218M

Operating income bridge

$M, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026

$M · Q3 2025: -$260M$M · Revenue: $297M$M · Cost of sales: -$111M$M · R&D: $218M$M · SG&A: -$14M$M · Q3 2026: $130MQ3 2025RevenueCost of salesR&DSG&AQ3 2026-$300M-$200M-$100M$0M$100M$250M$297M-$111M$218M-$14M$130M
Higher cost of sales cut operating income by $111M

Note: Higher costs are shown as reductions. R&D fell 27% YoY after late-stage study wind-downs.Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

9

9 · Operating income bridge

Operating margin rose to 9.9% from -25.6%, while gross margin fell 385 bps

Gross and operating margins

% of revenue, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Gross margin · Q3 2025: 79.6%Gross margin · Q3 2026: 75.8%Operating margin · Q3 2025: -25.6%Operating margin · Q3 2026: 9.9%Q3 2025Q3 20260%10%20%30%40%50%9.9%

Gross marginOperating margin

Gross margin was 75.8%, down from 79.6%

Note: Gross margin is revenue less cost of sales, divided by revenue.Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

10

10 · Margin analysis

Cash and investments rose to $8.0B after $2.6B of convertible-note proceeds

Cash and investments bridge

$M, Jun 30 to Sep 30, 2026

$M · Jun 30: $6,900M$M · Convertible notes net: $2,600M$M · Litigation payment: -$950M$M · Operations and other: -$574M$M · Sep 30: $7,976MJun 30Convertible notesnetLitigationpaymentOperations andotherSep 30$4,000M$5,000M$6,000M$7,000M$8,000M$9,000M$6,900M-$950M-$574M$7,976M
The bridge also reflects the $1.0B litigation settlement payment

Note: Proceeds are net of capped calls and issuance costs.Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

11

11 · Cash flow and financing

12 · Operating cost ratios

Cash and investments were $8.0B at Sep 30, against $3.0B of convertible notes

Cash, investments and debt

$M, Dec 31, 2025 vs. Sep 30, 2026

$MDec 31, 2025Sep 30, 2026
Cash and cash equivalents$2,595M$1,195M
Investments (current)$3,204M$3,976M
Investments (non-current)$2,336M$2,805M
Cash and investments$8,135M$7,976M
Convertible notes$0M$2,958M
Accounts receivable rose to $1,367M on seasonal third-quarter sales

Note: Cash and investments = cash + current + non-current investments.Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

13

13 · Balance sheet and cash

2026 growth guidance of 15% to 25% rests on COVID contracts and new product uptake

Indicator
What to watch
Implication
Latest reading
International COVID contracts
Government partnership deliveries
Revenue timing swings
International $533M in Q3
mFLUSIVA launch
Limited 2026–27 U.S. season
Near-term flu revenue modest
FDA approval Aug 2026
Intismeran regulatory path
Melanoma submission with Merck
Oncology upside not in guide
Phase 3 HR 0.58
Working capital and litigation
Cash vs. year-end $8.1–$8.3B guide
Receivables and settlement timing
Cash $8.0B at Sep 30

Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

14

14 · Key risks to guidance

Appendix: geography and product detail

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
U.S. revenue, Q3 2026$0.8BCompany narrative
International revenue, Q3 2026$0.5BCompany narrative
Net product sales YoY30.8% to $1.3BIncome statement
Other revenue YoY7.0% to $40MGrants, collaboration, licensing

Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

15

15 · Appendix: Geography detail

Appendix: profit and cost detail

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Gross profit rose$809M to $995MRevenue less cost of sales
Gross margin fell79.6% to 75.8%Higher volume and manufacturing costs
SG&A rose5.2% to $282MIncome statement
Interest income fell$73M to $62MLower average yields / balances
Diluted shares rose390M to 430MConvertible notes dilution

Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

16

16 · Appendix: Profit and costs

17 · Appendix: Guidance and cash

Appendix: pipeline and product updates

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
mFLUSIVA FDA approvalAdults 50–64; accelerated for 65+Fifth approved product globally
Intismeran Phase 3 (melanoma)42% lower risk of recurrence or death (HR 0.58)With KEYTRUDA vs. KEYTRUDA alone
Flu/COVID combinationApproved in Canada and EU; U.S. refiling awaitedmCOFLU / mCOMBRIAX
Norovirus vaccinePhase 3 interim did not meet early-success barPath forward with health authorities
Propionic acidemiaPivotal data expected in 2026Registrational study at target enrollment

Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

18

18 · Appendix: Pipeline updates

Appendix: income statement detail

Revenue and cost of sales

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Total revenue$1,016M$1,313M29.2%
Net product sales$973M$1,273M30.8%
Other revenue$43M$40M(7.0%)
Cost of sales$207M$318M53.6%

Operating expenses and earnings

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Research and development$801M$583M(27.2%)
SG&A$268M$282M5.2%
Operating income (loss)-$260M$130Mn.m.
Net income (loss)-$200M$162Mn.m.
Diluted EPS ($)-$0.51$0.38n.m.

Note: n.m. means not meaningful when the prior period was a loss.Source: Moderna Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

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19 · Appendix: Income statement

Appendix: sources

  • Filing: Moderna Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000194/0001682852-26-000194-index.htm
  • Earnings release, Q3 2026 (Ex. 99.1) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000194/exhibit9912026q3pressrelea.htm
  • Wire copy: ACCESS Newswire, Nov 6, 2026, 6:45 AM ET — https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/healthcare-and-pharmaceutical/moderna-reports-third-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-provides-bus-1247635
  • Prior guidance: Q2 2026 release (Ex. 99.1), Jul 31, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000147/exhibit9912026q2pressrelea.htm
  • FY 2025 revenue base: Form 10-K for year ended Dec 31, 2025 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000033/mrna-20251231.htm
  • Q3 consensus: LSEG via CNBC, Nov 6, 2026, 6:47 AM ET — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/06/moderna-mrna-earnings-q3-2026.html
  • Share price: Yahoo Finance MRNA Nov 5, 2026 close; Nasdaq MRNA premarket Nov 6, 2026 9:05 AM ET — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/history/
  • All company figures are GAAP, in U.S. dollars. Guidance growth is versus 2025 total revenue.
  • Chart and table values link to the model in the spreadsheet tabs of this file.

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20

20 · Sources

Important disclosures and disclaimer

For information only. This presentation is provided for information only. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and it is not an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security.

No recommendation. It carries no rating, price target or buy, sell or hold view, and it was prepared without regard to any reader's investment objectives, financial situation or needs.

Sources and accuracy. Company figures come from Moderna's Form 8-K of November 6, 2026 (Exhibit 99.1) and, for prior guidance, its Form 8-K of July 31, 2026. FY 2025 revenue is from the Form 10-K filed February 20, 2026. Consensus estimates (LSEG via CNBC) and share prices (Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq) are third-party data, credited on the sources page. We have not independently verified third-party data.

Basis of presentation. Figures are GAAP, in U.S. dollars, for the quarters ended September 30, 2026 and 2025.

Forward-looking statements. Company guidance, consensus estimates and the watch items in this deck are forward-looking. They rest on assumptions that may prove wrong, and actual results may differ materially.

No liability. No liability is accepted for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents.

No affiliation. This presentation is not affiliated with, reviewed or endorsed by Moderna, Inc. Company and brand names belong to their owners.

How it was made. The deck was built with DeepCell, with figures linked to a model in the file. Readers should check the figures against the original filings.

Date of analysis. The analysis reflects information available on November 6, 2026, with the share-price reaction measured at Nasdaq premarket 9:05 AM ET versus the November 5 regular-session close.

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21

21 · Disclosures

Sources

Not investment advice; no rating or price target.

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