Vistra Q3 2026 earnings review

Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA rose 50.4% to $2,378M, and 2026 guidance midpoint rose.

Vistra Corp. · Q3 2026 · Published Nov 6, 2026 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

Vistra Q3 2026 earnings review

Quarter ended September 30, 2026

For information only, not investment advice. No rating or price target.

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1 · Vistra (VST) Q3 2026 earnings review

Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA rose 50.4% to $2,378M, and 2026 guidance midpoint rose

  1. 1.Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA rose 50.4% to $2,378M, led by Texas and East
  2. 2.The 2026 Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA midpoint rose $100M to $7,300M; 2027 guidance was initiated
  3. 3.Operating revenues of $6,347M beat the Benzinga consensus of $5,980M
  4. 4.The board added $1.5B of buybacks; ~$2.5B of authorization remains
  5. 5.Shares traded at $118.80 in Nov 6 pre-market (not a close), +5.2% vs. the Nov 5 close of $112.89

Note: FCFbG is free cash flow before growth. Ongoing Operations excludes Asset Closure. Adj. EBITDA and FCFbG are company non-GAAP measures. Diluted EPS was not disclosed in Ex. 99.1.Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; Benzinga, Nov 6, 2026; Yahoo Finance Nov 4–5 closes; Nasdaq pre-market Nov 6 9:05 AM ET (not a close); analysis of company data

2

2 · Executive summary

Operating revenues of $6,347M beat the Benzinga consensus by +6.1%

Q3 2026 results vs. consensus

MetricActualConsensusVarianceResult
Operating revenues vs. Benzinga, Nov 6$6,347M$5,980M+$367M / +6.1%Beat
Operating revenues vs. Zacks, Nov 4$6,347M$7,440M-$1,093M / -14.7%Miss

Share price around the Nov 6 release (Yahoo Finance / Nasdaq)

MeasureNov 4 closeNov 5 closeNov 6 pre-marketChange vs. Nov 5
Vistra (NYSE: VST)$120.29$112.89$118.80+$5.91 / +5.2%

Note: Diluted EPS was not disclosed in Ex. 99.1, so EPS consensus cannot be scored. Benzinga EPS consensus was $2.43 and Zacks $2.34. Zacks revenue of $7.44B diverges from Benzinga; treat with caution. Nov 6 pre-market is as of 9:05 AM ET on Nasdaq, labelled pre-market, not a close.Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; Benzinga, Nov 6, 2026; Zacks via Yahoo Finance, Nov 4, 2026; Yahoo Finance Nov 4–5 closes; Nasdaq pre-market Nov 6 9:05 AM ET (not a close); analysis of company data

3

3 · Q3 results vs. consensus

Vistra raised the 2026 Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA midpoint by $100M and initiated 2027 guidance

2026 Ongoing Operations guidance, Nov 6 vs. Aug 7

MetricAug 7 guidanceNov 6 guidanceChange
Adj. EBITDA, low$6,800M$7,100M$+$300M
Adj. EBITDA, high$7,600M$7,500M-$100M
Adj. EBITDA, midpoint$7,200M$7,300M$+$100M
Adj. FCFbG, midpoint$4,325M$4,500M$+$175M

2027 Ongoing Operations guidance (initiated)

MetricPrior midpoint opportunityNov 6 guidanceChange at midpoint
Adj. EBITDA, midpoint$7,600M$8,100M$+$500M
Adj. FCFbG, midpoint—$4,700M—
Adj. EBITDA range$7.4–$7.8B opportunity$7,700M–$8,500MInitiated

Note: FCFbG is free cash flow before growth. Guidance uses Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and FCFbG. Prior 2027 was a midpoint opportunity that excluded Cogentrix and Meta PPAs. High/low change rows reuse the midpoint delta for display of the raise.Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; Vistra Form 8-K, Aug 7, 2026; analysis of company data

4

4 · Guidance

Operating revenues rose 27.7% and net income rose 74.8% to $1,140M

  1. Adj. EBITDA grew faster than revenueOngoing Ops Adj. EBITDA rose 50.4% vs. revenue up 27.7%.
  2. GAAP includes a large hedge markNet income includes an unrealized hedge gain of $559M expected to settle in future years.
  3. Impairment weighed on GAAPThe Moss Landing 350 partial impairment was $269M.

Key figures in $M and YoY % for Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Operating revenues$4,971M$6,347M27.7%
Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA$1,581M$2,378M50.4%
Operating income$1,037M$1,706M64.5%
Net income to Vistra$652M$1,140M74.8%
Net income to common$604M$1,092M80.8%

Note: Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA excludes Asset Closure. Diluted EPS was not disclosed in Ex. 99.1.Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

5

5 · Q3 key financials

Texas Adj. EBITDA rose 56.5% to $1,227M, and East rose 36.2%

Adjusted EBITDA by segment

$M, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

SegmentQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Retail$37M$98M164.9%
Texas$784M$1,227M56.5%
East$719M$979M36.2%
West$63M$76M20.6%
Corporate and Other($22M)($2M)(90.9%)
Ongoing Operations$1,581M$2,378M50.4%
Texas was 51.6% of Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA“Through one of the hottest calendar third quarters on record, our generation team kept the fleet running safely and reliably.” Jim Burke, CEO

Note: Segment Adj. EBITDA follows the company reconciliation. Fleet commercial availability was nearly 95% in the quarter.Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

6

6 · Segment results

Texas added $443M and East added $260M of the $797M Adj. EBITDA increase

Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA change by segment

$M, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026

$M · Retail: $61M$M · Texas: $443M$M · East: $260M$M · West: $13M$M · Corporate: $20M$M · Total: $797MRetailTexasEastWestCorporateTotal$0M$250M$500M$750M$900M$61M$443M$260M$13M$20M$797M
Higher realized energy and capacity prices, Lotus plants and Martin Lake Unit 1 drove the rise

Note: Bars are each segment’s YoY Adj. EBITDA change and sum to Ongoing Operations.Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

7

7 · Adj. EBITDA bridge

8 · Segment Adj. EBITDA

Net income rose 74.8% as higher revenues outweighed the Moss Landing impairment

Net income attributable to Vistra

$M, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026

$M · Q3 2025: $652M$M · Revenue: $1,376M$M · Costs: -$192M$M · D&A: -$251M$M · Impair: -$264M$M · Other: -$61M$M · Interest: $32M$M · Tax: -$152M$M · Q3 2026: $1,140MQ3 2025RevenueCostsD&AImpairOtherInterestTaxQ3 2026$0M$500M$1,000M$1,500M$2,200M$652M$1,376M-$192M-$251M-$264M-$61M$32M-$152M$1,140M
Moss Landing impairment was $269M

Note: Costs are fuel, operating costs and SG&A. Interest is the benefit from lower interest expense.Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

9

9 · Net income bridge

Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA margin rose to 37.5% from 31.8%

Operating, Adj. EBITDA and net margins

% of operating revenues, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Operating margin · Q3 2025: 20.9%Operating margin · Q3 2026: 26.9%Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA margin · Q3 2025: 31.8%Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA margin · Q3 2026: 37.5%Net margin · Q3 2025: 13.1%Net margin · Q3 2026: 18.0%Q3 2025Q3 20260.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%45.0%20.9%26.9%31.8%37.5%13.1%18.0%

Operating marginOngoing Ops Adj. EBITDA marginNet margin

Operating margin rose to 26.9% from 20.9%

Note: Adj. EBITDA margin uses Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA over operating revenues.Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

10

10 · Margin analysis

Nine-month operating cash flow rose to $4,330M, above capex of $2,319M

Operating cash flow and capital expenditures

$M, nine months ended Sep 30, 2026

$M · Operating CF: $4,330M$M · Capex: $2,319M$M · OCF less capex: $2,011MOperating CFCapexOCF less capex$0M$1,000M$2,000M$3,000M$4,000M$5,000M$4,330M$2,319M$2,011M
Stock repurchases were $917M in the nine months

Note: FCFbG is free cash flow before growth. OCF less capex is a simple cash measure, not company Adjusted FCFbG.Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

11

11 · Cash flow and financing

12 · Capital returns

Available liquidity was $8,923M at Sep 30, and about $5,400M pro forma after Cogentrix

Liquidity and cash

$M unless noted, as of Sep 30, 2026 (and pro forma)

MeasureAmount
Cash and cash equivalents$2,743M
Total available liquidity$8,923M
Pro forma liquidity after Cogentrix actions$5,400M
Ending cash and restricted cash (nine-month CF)$2,776M
Cogentrix closed in October with about 5,500 MW of gas capacity

Note: Pro forma liquidity reflects preferred redemption, Cogentrix cash paid, AR facility draws and assumed-debt repayment.Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

13

13 · Balance sheet and debt

Guidance rests on hedges covering 100% of 2026 volumes and on integrating Cogentrix

Indicator
What to watch
Implication
Q3 reading
Power prices
ERCOT and PJM price paths
Adj. EBITDA vs. guide
2026 volumes 100% hedged
Cogentrix integration
Synergies and outages
2027 guide delivery
About 5,500 MW closed in October
Weather and load
Data-center policy risk in Texas
Load growth assumptions
Availability nearly 95%
Mark-to-market hedges
GAAP NI swings
EPS vs. cash
Unrealized hedge gain $559M

Note: ERCOT is Electric Reliability Council of Texas; PJM is PJM Interconnection. These are analytical watch points, not company targets. Diluted EPS was not disclosed in Ex. 99.1.Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

14

14 · Key risks to guidance

15 · Appendix: Segment detail

Appendix: profit and margin detail

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Net income to common$1,092M, up from $604MIncome statement
Operating income$1,706M, up 64.5%Income statement
Adj. EBITDA margin37.5% vs. 31.8% a year earlierDerived
Moss Landing impairment$269M partial impairment of Moss Landing 350Release narrative

Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

16

16 · Appendix: Profit and margins

Appendix: guidance and capital returns

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
2026 Adj. EBITDA range$7,100M to $7,500MNov 6 release
2026 Adj. FCFbG range$4,300M to $4,700MNov 6 release
2027 Adj. EBITDA range$7,700M to $8,500MNov 6 release
Buybacks remainingAbout $2.5B through year-end 2028Share repurchase update

FCFbG is free cash flow before growth. Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

17

17 · Appendix: Guidance and funding

Appendix: acquisitions and PPAs

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Cogentrix closedAbout 5,500 MW of gas capacity closed in OctoberRelease
Pulaski and Deer Creek online405 MW Pulaski (Microsoft PPA); 100 MW Deer CreekRelease
Odessa New Era agreement20-year 207 MW PPA at Odessa in TexasRelease
Near-term volumes locked100% of 2026 and 98% of 2027 hedgedRelease

Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

18

18 · Appendix: Growth projects

Appendix: income statement and cash flow detail

Selected income statement lines, $M and YoY %

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Fuel, purchased power and delivery$2,370M$2,530M6.8%
Depreciation and amortization$460M$711M54.6%
Impairment of long-lived assets$5M$269M5280.0%
Interest expense and related charges$286M$254M(11.2%)

Nine-month cash flow, $M

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Operating cash flow$2,638M$4,330M64.1%
Capital expenditures$1,916M$2,319M21.0%
Stock repurchases$776M$917M18.2%
OCF less capex$722M$2,011M—

Note: FCFbG is free cash flow before growth. OCF less capex is not company Adjusted FCFbG. Preferred dividends were $48M in both quarters.Source: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026; analysis of company data

19

19 · Appendix: Income detail

Appendix: sources

  • Filing index: Vistra Form 8-K, Nov 6, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000023/0001692819-26-000023-index.htm
  • Earnings release, Q3 2026 (Ex. 99.1) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000023/vistra-20260930xearningsre.htm
  • IR news release, Nov 6, 2026 — https://investor.vistracorp.com/2026-11-06-Vistra-Reports-Third-Quarter-2026-Results
  • PRNewswire mirror — https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vistra-reports-third-quarter-2026-results-302931798.html
  • Prior guidance: Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Aug 7, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000017/vistra-20260630xearningsre.htm
  • Q3 consensus: Benzinga Pro via Benzinga, Nov 6, 2026 — https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/price-target/26/11/62967183/top-wall-street-forecasters-revamp-vistra-expectations-ahead-of-q3-earnings
  • Q3 consensus: Zacks via Yahoo Finance, Nov 4, 2026 — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/vistra-set-q3-earnings-release-151000938.html
  • Share price: Yahoo Finance VST history (Nov 4–5 closes) and Nasdaq pre-market Nov 6 9:05 AM ET (not a close) — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VST/history/

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20

20 · Sources

Important disclosures and disclaimer

For information only. This presentation is provided for information only. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and it is not an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security.

No recommendation. It carries no rating, price target or buy, sell or hold view, and it was prepared without regard to any reader's investment objectives, financial situation or needs.

Sources and accuracy. Company figures come from Vistra Corp.'s Form 8-K of November 6, 2026 (Exhibit 99.1) and its Form 8-K of August 7, 2026 for prior guidance. Consensus estimates and share prices are third-party data, credited on the sources page. We have not independently verified third-party data and make no warranty that any information here is accurate, complete or timely.

Forward-looking statements. Company guidance, hedging disclosures, capital-return plans and the watch items in this deck are forward-looking. They rest on assumptions that may prove wrong, and actual results may differ materially.

Past performance. Past results, including those for Q3 2026, are not a reliable indicator of future results.

Non-GAAP measures. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth follow Vistra's own definitions. They supplement, and do not replace, GAAP results, and they may not be comparable with other companies' measures. The earnings release reconciles them to GAAP.

No liability. No liability is accepted for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents.

No affiliation. This presentation is not affiliated with, reviewed or endorsed by Vistra Corp. and does not represent its views. Company and brand names belong to their owners.

How it was made. The deck was built with DeepCell, with figures linked to a model in the file. Readers should check the figures against the original filings and consult a qualified professional adviser before making any investment decision.

Date of analysis. The analysis reflects information available as of November 6, 2026, about 9:05 AM US Eastern time, with share prices through the Nov 5 regular-session close (Yahoo Finance) and the Nov 6 pre-market quote (Nasdaq; pre-market, not a close). It will not be updated for later events, and views may change without notice.

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21

21 · Disclosures

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