Shopify Q3 2026 earnings review

Q3 non-GAAP EPS beat consensus by 2.1%, but subscription revenue missed by 1.7%.

Shopify · Q3 2026 · Published Nov 4, 2026 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

Shopify Q3 2026 earnings review

Quarter ended September 30, 2026

For information only, not investment advice. No rating or price target.

Built with DeepCell / deepcell.net

1 · Shopify (SHOP) Q3 2026 earnings review

Q3 non-GAAP EPS beat consensus by 2.1%, but subscription revenue missed by 1.7%

  1. 1.Non-GAAP EPS of $0.49 beat the $0.48 Bloomberg consensus; revenue missed by 0.2%
  2. 2.GMV of $119.1B trailed the $120.1B consensus
  3. 3.Operating margin rose to 15.2% from 12.1%
  4. 4.Shares fell 8.7% to $142.57 at the Nov 3 close after the subscription and GMV misses

Note: GMV is gross merchandise volume. Non-GAAP EPS is Shopify’s non-GAAP diluted EPS; it excludes stock-based compensation and investment gains and losses.Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance; Yahoo Finance and CNBC quotes, Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

2

2 · Executive summary

Q3 non-GAAP EPS beat the Bloomberg consensus by 2.1%, while revenue missed by 0.2%

Q3 2026 results vs. Bloomberg consensus

MetricActualConsensusVarianceResult
Non-GAAP diluted EPS$0.49$0.48+$0.01 / +2.1%Beat
Total revenues$3.74B$3.75B-0.2%Miss
Subscription solutions revenue$836M$850.2M-1.7%Miss
GMV$119.15B$120.08B-0.8%Miss

Q3 2026 results vs. Investing.com consensus (cross-check)

MetricActualConsensusVarianceResult
Non-GAAP diluted EPS$0.49$0.47+4.3%Beat
Total revenues$3.74B$3.74B+0.1%In line

Share price reaction, Nov 3, 2026

MeasureNov 2 closeNov 3 closeChange
SHOP (Nasdaq)$156.22$142.57-8.7%

Note: GMV is gross merchandise volume. Variance is actual less consensus. Closes match on Yahoo Finance and CNBC. Yahoo Finance tied the fall to the misses.Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance; Investing.com; Yahoo Finance and CNBC quotes

3

3 · Q3 results vs. consensus

Shopify guided Q4 opex to 29%–30% of revenue, below 32.4% in Q3

Q4 2026 outlook vs. Q3 2026 actual

MetricQ4 2026 outlookQ3 2026 actualBasis
Revenue growth YoYLow-thirties %31.6%Company outlook
Gross profit growth YoYHigh-twenties %28.0%Company outlook
Opex, % of revenue29%–30%32.4%Company outlook
Stock-based compensation$155M$140MCompany outlook
Free cash flow marginIn line with Q4 202521.8%Company outlook

Opex as a share of revenue

% of total revenues, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Opex, % of revenue · Q3 2025: 36.8%Opex, % of revenue · Q3 2026: 32.4%Q3 2025Q3 20260.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%32.4%

Note: Shopify gives no Q4 EPS or revenue dollar guidance. No two-source Q4 consensus was found, so none is shown.Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

4

4 · Q4 2026 outlook

Revenue rose 31.6% to $3.7B, and operating income rose 65.6%

  1. Merchant solutions ledMerchant solutions revenue rose 35.5% YoY.
  2. Lower gross marginGross margin fell to 47.6% from 48.9%.
  3. Higher free cash flowFree cash flow rose 60.9% YoY.

Key figures in $M and YoY % for Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
GMV$92,013M$119,145M29.5%
Total revenues$2,844M$3,742M31.6%
Gross profit$1,391M$1,781M28.0%
Operating income$343M$568M65.6%
Non-GAAP diluted EPS ($)$0.34$0.4944.1%

Note: GMV is gross merchandise volume. Non-GAAP diluted EPS is as reported by Shopify.Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

5

5 · Q3 key financials

Merchant solutions revenue rose 35.5%, while subscription solutions rose 19.6%

Revenue by line

$M unless noted, Q3 2026 (YoY vs. Q3 2025)

SegmentRevenueRevenue YoY
Subscription solutions$836M19.6%
Merchant solutions$2,906M35.5%
Total revenues$3,742M31.6%
Merchant solutions grew faster than GMV, up 29.5%.President Harley Finkelstein cited $119B of GMV and commerce built into every surface and agent; CFO Jeff Hoffmeister cited multiple growth drivers

Note: GMV is gross merchandise volume. Merchant solutions are mainly payments revenue; subscription solutions are mainly plan fees.Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026 (President and CFO quotes); analysis of company data

6

6 · Revenue by line

7 · Revenue as % of GMV

Merchant solutions added $761M of the $898M revenue increase

Subscription solutions added $137M, with MRR up 19.2%

Revenue bridge by line

$M, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026

$M · Q3 2025: $2,844M$M · Subscription: $137M$M · Merchant: $761M$M · Q3 2026: $3,742MQ3 2025SubscriptionMerchantQ3 2026$2,000M$2,500M$3,000M$3,500M$4,000M$2,844M$137M$761M$3,742M

Note: MRR is monthly recurring revenue. Bars are reported YoY revenue changes by line. The axis starts at $2,000M.Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

8

8 · Revenue bridge by line

GAAP diluted EPS rose 80.0% to $0.36, and non-GAAP EPS rose 44.1%

GAAP and non-GAAP diluted EPS

$ per share, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Non-GAAP diluted EPS · Q3 2025: $0.34Non-GAAP diluted EPS · Q3 2026: $0.49GAAP diluted EPS · Q3 2025: $0.20GAAP diluted EPS · Q3 2026: $0.36Q3 2025Q3 2026$0.0$0.2$0.4$0.6$0.34$0.49$0.20$0.36

Non-GAAP diluted EPSGAAP diluted EPS

Net loss on equity and other investments rose to $117M from $62M

Note: Non-GAAP EPS excludes stock-based compensation, amortization and investment gains and losses, net of tax.Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

9

9 · GAAP vs. non-GAAP EPS

Operating margin rose to 15.2% as transaction and loan losses fell to 3.2% of revenue

Operating expenses as a share of revenue

% of total revenues, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

S&M · Q3 2025: 14.4%S&M · Q3 2026: 12.5%R&D · Q3 2025: 13.2%R&D · Q3 2026: 13.3%G&A · Q3 2025: 4.0%G&A · Q3 2026: 3.5%Losses · Q3 2025: 5.2%Losses · Q3 2026: 3.2%Q3 2025Q3 20260.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%14.4%12.5%13.2%13.3%4.0%3.5%5.2%3.2%

S&MR&DG&ALosses

Transaction and loan losses fell 18.9% YoY to $120M

Note: Each ratio is the reported expense line divided by total revenues. Losses are transaction and loan losses.Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

10

10 · Operating expense ratios

11 · Free cash flow and buybacks

Operating income grew 65.6%, more than twice GMV growth of 29.5%

Growth by metric

% change YoY, Q3 2026

YoY · Operating income: 65.6%YoY · FCF: 60.9%YoY · Merchandise volume: 29.5%YoY · Gross profit: 28.0%YoY · Subscription: 19.6%YoY · Recurring revenue: 19.2%OperatingincomeFCFMerchandisevolumeGross profitSubscriptionRecurringrevenue0.0%25.0%50.0%80.0%65.6%60.9%29.5%28.0%19.6%19.2%
MRR rose 19.2% to $230M, the slowest growth shown

Note: GMV is gross merchandise volume; MRR is monthly recurring revenue. Growth is Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025 as reported.Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

12

12 · Growth by key metric

Cash and marketable securities fell $1,051M to $4.7B in 2026 to date

Balance sheet items

$M, Dec 31, 2025 vs. Sep 30, 2026

$MDec 31, 2025Sep 30, 2026
Cash and cash equivalents$1,545M$1,868M
Marketable securities$4,233M$2,859M
Cash and securities$5,778M$4,727M
Loans and cash advances$1,784M$2,350M
Loans and merchant cash advances grew 31.7% since December; Q3 buybacks were $562M

Note: Cash and securities is cash and cash equivalents plus current marketable securities.Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

13

13 · Balance sheet

Q4 estimates depend on subscription growth, GMV and loan losses, after MRR rose 19.2%

Indicator
What to watch
Implication
Q3 reading
Subscription revenue
Growth keeps slowing below consensus
Recurring revenue estimates could fall
Subscription revenue $836M
GMV
Order volume trails estimates again
Merchant revenue estimates could fall
GMV growth 29.5%
Loan losses
Lending grows faster than repayments
Losses could rise from a low base
Net lending outflow $229M

Note: GMV is gross merchandise volume; MRR is monthly recurring revenue. These are analytical watch points, not company targets. Q3 readings are reported Q3 2026 figures.Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

14

14 · Key risks to outlook

Appendix: supporting analysis for revenue

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Subscription gross margin fellSubscription gross margin 81.7% in Q3 2025 to 79.1% in Q3 2026Subscription revenue less its cost of revenues, divided by revenue
Merchant gross margin fellMerchant gross margin 38.2% to 38.5%Merchant revenue less its cost of revenues, divided by revenue
MRR grewMRR $193M to $230MAs reported by Shopify

MRR is monthly recurring revenue. Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

15

15 · Appendix: Revenue detail

Appendix: supporting analysis for profit and costs

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
GAAP-to-non-GAAP EPS items narrowedNon-GAAP EPS exceeded GAAP EPS by $0.13 in Q3 2026 and $0.14 in Q3 2025Non-GAAP diluted EPS less GAAP diluted EPS
R&D rose fastestR&D expenses rose 32.5% to $497MReported expense line
Opex ratio fellOperating expenses fell to 32.4% of revenue from 36.8%Total operating expenses divided by total revenues
Investments weighed on net incomeEquity investments marked to market cut net income by $122MAs reported by Shopify, net of taxes

Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

16

16 · Appendix: Profit and costs

Appendix: cash flow and capital support

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Operating cash flow roseNet cash from operating activities rose 59.5% to $818MReported cash flow line
Capex stayed smallPurchases of property and equipment were $2MReported cash flow line
Buybacks resumedShopify repurchased $562M of stock, against none in Q3 2025Reported cash flow line
Free cash flow after buybacksFree cash flow after buybacks was $254MFree cash flow less repurchases

Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

17

17 · Appendix: Cash and capital

Appendix: watch items behind outlook and risks

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
SBC guided higherQ4 stock-based compensation guidance of $155MAs stated in the release
Subscription watch itemSubscription growth below MRR growth would signal slower plan revenueSubscription revenue YoY vs. MRR YoY
Lending watch itemLoans and cash advances rose to $2,350M on the balance sheetBalance sheet, Sep 30, 2026
GMV watch itemA second GMV shortfall would pressure merchant revenue estimatesGMV vs. consensus

Stock-based compensation

$M, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Stock-based compensation · Q3 2025: $107MStock-based compensation · Q3 2026: $140MQ3 2025Q3 2026$0M$50M$100M$150M$200M$140M

GMV is gross merchandise volume; MRR is monthly recurring revenue. Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

18

18 · Appendix: GMV and loan risks

Appendix: operating expense and non-GAAP detail

Operating expense detail, $M and YoY %

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Sales and marketing$410M$466M13.7%
Research and development$375M$497M32.5%
General and administrative$115M$130M13.0%
Transaction and loan losses$148M$120M(18.9%)

Non-GAAP net income, $M and YoY %

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
GAAP net income$264M$462M75.0%
SBC and related taxes$116M$147Mn.m.
Non-GAAP net income$441M$638M44.7%

Note: n.m. means not meaningful. SBC is stock-based compensation.Source: Shopify Q3 2026 press release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

19

19 · Appendix: Opex and non-GAAP

Appendix: sources

  • Company: Shopify Q3 2026 press release, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K, Nov 3, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000067/exhibit991pressreleaseq320.htm
  • Company: Shopify Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Sep 30, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000068/shop-20260930.htm
  • Consensus: Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, Nov 3 — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/shopify-stock-tanks-as-q3-revenue-misses-estimates-for-first-time-since-2022-133246370.html
  • Consensus cross-check: Investing.com, Nov 3 — https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/shopify-tanks-19-premarket-as-q3-gmv-subscription-revenue-miss-estimates-4994809
  • Share price: Yahoo Finance quote, Nov 2 and Nov 3 closes, 4:00 PM ET — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SHOP/
  • Share price cross-check: CNBC quote — https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/SHOP

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20

20 · Sources

Important disclosures and disclaimer

For information only. This presentation is provided for information only. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and it is not an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security.

No recommendation. It carries no rating, price target or buy, sell or hold view, and it was prepared without regard to any reader's investment objectives, financial situation or needs.

Sources and accuracy. Company figures come from Shopify's Q3 2026 press release filed with its Form 8-K on November 3, 2026. Consensus estimates (Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, Investing.com) and share prices (Yahoo Finance, CNBC) are third-party data, credited on the sources page. We have not independently verified third-party data and make no warranty that any information here is accurate, complete or timely.

Forward-looking statements. Company outlook, consensus estimates and the watch items in this deck are forward-looking. They rest on assumptions that may prove wrong, and actual results may differ materially.

Past performance. Past results, including those for Q3 2026, are not a reliable indicator of future results.

Non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP figures and free cash flow follow Shopify's own definitions. They supplement, and do not replace, GAAP results, and they may not be comparable with other companies' measures. Shopify's press release reconciles them to GAAP.

No liability. No liability is accepted for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents.

No affiliation. This presentation is not affiliated with, reviewed or endorsed by Shopify Inc. and does not represent Shopify's views. Company and product names belong to their owners.

How it was made. The deck was built with DeepCell, with figures linked to a model in the file. Readers should check the figures against the original filings and consult a qualified professional adviser before making any investment decision.

Date of analysis. The analysis reflects information available as of the November 3, 2026 market close (4:00 PM ET). It will not be updated for later events, and views may change without notice.

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21

21 · Disclosures

Sources

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