Upstart Q3 2026 earnings review

Q3 diluted EPS of $0.33 beat consensus, but Upstart cut its 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance.

Upstart · Q3 2026 · Published Nov 4, 2026 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

Upstart Q3 2026 earnings review

Quarter ended September 30, 2026

For information only, not investment advice. No rating or price target.

Built with DeepCell / deepcell.net

1 · Upstart (UPST) Q3 2026 earnings review

Q3 diluted EPS of $0.33 beat consensus, but Upstart cut its 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance

  1. 1.Diluted EPS of $0.33 beat the $0.23 S&P Global consensus; revenue beat by 1.6%
  2. 2.2026 revenue guidance fell $50M to $1.35B, and Adjusted EBITDA guidance fell to $260M
  3. 3.Contribution profit rose 47.9% to a record $218.0M
  4. 4.Originations rose 44.3% to $4.12B
  5. 5.Shares closed 0.3% higher at $21.37 on Nov 3 as investors weighed the beat against the cut

Note: Upstart reports GAAP diluted EPS only; there is no Adjusted EPS.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; S&P Global via StockStory; Investing.com, Nov 3, 2026; CNBC quote, Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

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2 · Executive summary

Q3 diluted EPS beat the S&P Global consensus by 43.5%, and revenue beat by 1.6%

Q3 2026 results vs. S&P Global consensus

MetricActualConsensusVarianceResult
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$0.33$0.23+$0.10 / +43.5%Beat
Total revenue$370.5M$364.6M+$5.9M / +1.6%Beat

Q3 2026 results vs. Investing.com consensus (cross-check)

MetricActualConsensusVarianceResult
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$0.33$0.21+57.1%Beat
Total revenue$370.5M$365.9M+1.3%Beat

Share price reaction, Nov 3, 2026

MeasureNov 2 closeNov 3 closeChange
Upstart (Nasdaq)$21.31$21.37+0.3%

Note: Variance is actual less consensus. Prices are CNBC closes, matched by Nasdaq.com and Public.com. Investing.com said investors weighed the beat against the lower outlook.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; S&P Global via StockStory; Investing.com, Nov 3, 2026; CNBC, Nasdaq.com and Public.com quotes, Nov 3, 2026

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3 · Q3 results vs. consensus

Upstart cut its 2026 revenue guidance by $50M to $1.35B, 4.9% below the Investing.com consensus

2026 guidance vs. Investing.com consensus

MetricGuidanceConsensusVariancevs. Street
Total revenue$1,350M$1,420M-$70M / -4.9%Below

2026 guidance, new vs. previous

MetricPreviousNewChangeBasis
Total revenue$1,400M$1,350M-$50MLowered
Revenue from fees$1,300M$1,320M+$20MRaised
Adjusted EBITDA$294M$260M-$34MLowered
Adjusted EBITDA margin21%19%n.a.Lowered

Note: Guidance is “approximately” the stated figure; previous guidance is from the Q2 2026 release. Variance is guidance less consensus.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; Upstart Q2 2026 earnings release, Aug 4, 2026; Investing.com, Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

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4 · Guidance vs. consensus

Total revenue rose 33.7% to $370.5M, and net income rose 15.0%

  1. Fees drove growthRevenue from fees rose 40.8% YoY.
  2. Balance sheet items weighedNet interest and fair value items fell $12.1M YoY.
  3. Record contribution profitContribution profit rose 47.9% YoY.

Key figures in $M and YoY % for Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Total revenue$277.1M$370.5M33.7%
Revenue from fees$258.5M$364.0M40.8%
Net income$31.8M$36.6M15.0%
Adjusted EBITDA$71.2M$89.3M25.5%
Diluted EPS ($)$0.23$0.3343.5%

Note: Adjusted EBITDA is Upstart’s non-GAAP measure: net income before SBC, D&A, convertible note expense, taxes and certain one-off items.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

5

5 · Q3 key financials

Unsecured Lending fee revenue rose 30.3%, while secured and other originations nearly tripled

Originations and fee revenue by product category

$M unless noted, Q3 2026 (YoY vs. Q3 2025)

SegmentRevenueRevenue YoY
Unsecured Lending originations$3,531M33.0%
Secured and other originations$586M193.2%
Unsecured Lending fee revenue$330M30.3%
Unsecured contribution profit$212M35.1%
Secured products (auto and home) reached a positive contribution margin of 17%, one quarter ahead of target.CEO Paul Gu: “Macro comes and goes, but alpha compounds.” He cited technology and marketing advances behind the record contribution profit

Note: Secured and other covers Auto Lending and Other (HELOC) segments. Contribution profit is fee revenue less borrower acquisition, verification and servicing costs.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026 (CEO quote); analysis of company data

6

6 · Unsecured and secured lending

Contribution margin rose to 59.9% from 57.0%, as contribution profit grew faster than fees

Contribution margin

% of revenue from fees, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Contribution margin · Q3 2025: 57.0%Contribution margin · Q3 2026: 59.9%Q3 2025Q3 20260.0%25.0%50.0%80.0%57.0%59.9%
Unsecured Lending contribution margin rose to 64.3% from 62.0%

Note: Contribution margin is contribution profit divided by revenue from fees, net.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

7

7 · Contribution margin

Fee revenue added $105.5M, while net interest and fair value items cut $12.1M

Total revenue rose $93.4M, or 33.7%, as fee growth outweighed balance sheet losses

Total revenue bridge

$M, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026

$M · Q3 2025: $277M$M · Fee revenue: $105M$M · Net interest and fair value: -$12M$M · Q3 2026: $371MQ3 2025Fee revenueNet interest andfair valueQ3 2026$0.0M$100.0M$200.0M$300.0M$400.0M$277M$105M-$12M$371M

Note: Net interest and fair value items are interest income less interest expense, plus fair value and other adjustments.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

8

8 · Revenue bridge

Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 24.1% from 25.7%, while operating margin rose to 9.7%

Operating and Adjusted EBITDA margins

% of total revenue, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Adjusted EBITDA margin · Q3 2025: 25.7%Adjusted EBITDA margin · Q3 2026: 24.1%Operating margin · Q3 2025: 8.5%Operating margin · Q3 2026: 9.7%Q3 2025Q3 20260.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%25.7%24.1%8.5%9.7%

Adjusted EBITDA marginOperating margin

Adjusted EBITDA rose 25.5% to $89.3M, slower than revenue

Note: Each margin is the measure divided by total revenue.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

9

9 · Adjusted EBITDA margin

Engineering and product development rose to 25.0% of revenue from 23.1%

Cost lines as a share of revenue

% of total revenue, Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Sales and marketing · Q3 2025: 28.5%Sales and marketing · Q3 2026: 27.6%Engineering · Q3 2025: 23.1%Engineering · Q3 2026: 25.0%G&A · Q3 2025: 21.9%G&A · Q3 2026: 20.6%Q3 2025Q3 20260.0%10.0%20.0%35.0%28.5%27.6%23.1%25.0%21.9%20.6%

Sales and marketingEngineeringG&A

Engineering and product development expense rose 44.7% YoY

Note: Each ratio is the reported expense line divided by total revenue. Engineering is engineering and product development.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

10

10 · Operating cost ratios

Cash including restricted cash rose $71.5M in nine months, despite $289.7M of operating outflows

Cash including restricted cash

$M, Jan–Sep 2026

$M · Dec 31, 2025: $1,057M$M · Operating: -$290M$M · Investing: $212M$M · Financing: $149M$M · Sep 30, 2026: $1,128MDec 31, 2025OperatingInvestingFinancingSep 30, 2026$0.0M$250.0M$500.0M$750.0M$1,000.0M$1,250.0M$1,400.0M$1,057M-$290M$212M$149M$1,128M
Upstart repurchased $100.1M of stock in Jan–Sep 2026

Note: Operating cash flow includes purchases and sales of loans held for sale, so it moves with loan funding.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

11

11 · Cash bridge

Contribution profit grew 47.9%, faster than total revenue at 33.7%

Growth by metric

% change YoY, Q3 2026

YoY · Contribution profit: 47.9%YoY · Originations: 44.3%YoY · Fee revenue: 40.8%YoY · Total revenue: 33.7%YoY · Net income: 15.0%ContributionprofitOriginationsFee revenueTotal revenueNet income0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%47.9%44.3%40.8%33.7%15.0%
Net income grew 15.0%, the slowest of these measures

Note: Growth compares Q3 2026 with Q3 2025.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

12

12 · Growth by key metric

Borrowings rose $198.2M since year-end to $2.03B, while cash fell to $461.5M

Balance sheet

$M, Dec 31, 2025 and Sep 30, 2026

$MDec 31, 2025Sep 30, 2026
Cash and cash equivalents$652.4M$461.5M
Loans at fair value$984.6M$940.7M
Borrowings$1,829.1M$2,027.3M
Total stockholders’ equity$798.8M$887.4M
Total assets reached $3.34B; loans held on the balance sheet were $940.7M

Note: Loans at fair value are loans Upstart holds on its own balance sheet.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

13

13 · Balance sheet and borrowings

2026 estimates depend on macro credit conditions, loan funding and the conversion rate, down to 18.6%

Indicator
What to watch
Implication
Q3 reading
Macro and credit
Weaker borrowers cut approvals and loan values
2026 EBITDA estimates could fall
Adjusted EBITDA guide $260M
Loan funding
Partners buy fewer loans, so more stay on the balance sheet
Fair value losses could widen
Borrowings $2.03B
Conversion rate
Fewer rate inquiries turn into loans
Origination estimates could fall
Conversion rate 19.4% a year ago

Note: These are analytical watch points, not company targets. Q3 readings are reported Q3 2026 figures.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

14

14 · Key risks to guidance

Appendix: supporting analysis for originations

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Originations roseOriginations $2,854M in Q3 2025 to $4,118M in Q3 2026Reported originations, dollars
Loan count rose more slowlyLoans originated rose 34.1% YoYCurrent less prior-year count, divided by prior-year count
Secured share doubledSecured and other share of originations 7.0% to 14.2%Secured and other originations divided by total

Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

15

15 · Appendix: Originations detail

Appendix: supporting analysis for profit and costs

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Operating income roseIncome from operations $23.7M to $36.0MReported income from operations
No debt gain this yearQ3 2025 included a $7.2M gain on debt extinguishmentReported line item
Opex grew more slowly than revenueTotal operating expenses rose 32.0% YoYReported operating expenses
Diluted shares roseDiluted shares 109.7M to 125.4MWeighted average, as reported

Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

16

16 · Appendix: Profit and costs

Appendix: guidance and cash flow support

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Fee guidance raised2026 revenue from fees guidance $1,300M to $1,320MQ2 and Q3 2026 releases
EBITDA margin guidance cut2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin 21% to 19%Q2 and Q3 2026 releases
Investing inflowInvesting cash flow of $212.1M in Jan–Sep 2026Reported cash flow statement
Capex stayed smallCapex of $18.7M in Jan–Sep 2026Property and equipment plus capitalized software

Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; Upstart Q2 2026 earnings release, Aug 4, 2026

17

17 · Appendix: Guidance and cash

Appendix: watch items behind guidance and risks

ClaimEvidenceCalculation
Revenue guide cut2026 total revenue guidance $1,400M to $1,350MQ2 and Q3 2026 releases
Macro watch itemWeaker credit would hit approvals and fair value marksNet interest and fair value items
Funding watch itemLess partner demand leaves more loans on the balance sheetLoans at fair value
Buybacks continuedShare repurchases of $100.1M in Jan–Sep 2026Reported cash flow statement
Conversion watch itemA further fall in conversion would slow originationsConversion rate

Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

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18 · Appendix: Funding and macro

Appendix: operating expense and Adjusted EBITDA detail

Operating expense detail, $M and YoY %

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026YoY
Sales and marketing$78.8M$102.1M29.5%
Customer operations$49.8M$63.3M27.2%
Engineering and product development$64.0M$92.7M44.7%
General, administrative and other$60.8M$76.5M25.8%

Net income to Adjusted EBITDA, $M

$M unless notedQ3 2025Q3 2026
Net income$31.8M$36.6M
SBC and certain payroll taxes$35.4M$40.9M
Depreciation and amortization$6.1M$6.1M
Adjusted EBITDA$71.2M$89.3M

Note: Convertible note expense, taxes and the debt gain are the other adjustments.Source: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), Nov 3, 2026; analysis of company data

19

19 · Appendix: Opex and EBITDA

Appendix: sources

  • Company: Upstart Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, Nov 3, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1647639/000164763926000083/upst991prq32026.htm
  • Company: Upstart Q2 2026 earnings release (previous guidance), Aug 4, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1647639/000164763926000062/upst991prq22026.htm
  • Consensus (Q3 results): S&P Global via StockStory/Yahoo Finance, Nov 3 — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/upstart-nasdaq-upst-posts-better-125211780.html
  • Consensus cross-check (Q3 results and 2026 revenue): Investing.com, Nov 3 — https://ph.investing.com/news/earnings/upstart-earnings-beat-by-012-revenue-topped-estimates-2670247
  • Share price: CNBC quote, Nov 3 close (4:00 PM ET) vs. Nov 2 close — https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/UPST
  • Share price cross-checks: Nasdaq.com — https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/upst/historical; Public.com — https://public.com/stocks/upst
  • Share price reaction reason: Investing.com, Nov 3 — https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-upstart-beats-q3-2026-estimates-but-stock-slips-93CH-4995713

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20 · Sources

Important disclosures and disclaimer

For information only. This presentation is provided for information only. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and it is not an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security.

No recommendation. It carries no rating, price target or buy, sell or hold view, and it was prepared without regard to any reader's investment objectives, financial situation or needs.

Sources and accuracy. Company figures come from Upstart's Q3 2026 earnings release filed with Form 8-K on November 3, 2026, and its Q2 2026 release. Consensus estimates (S&P Global via StockStory, Investing.com) are third-party data, credited on the sources page. We have not independently verified third-party data and make no warranty that any information here is accurate, complete or timely.

Forward-looking statements. Company guidance, consensus estimates and the watch items in this deck are forward-looking. They rest on assumptions that may prove wrong, and actual results may differ materially.

Past performance. Past results, including those for Q3 2026, are not a reliable indicator of future results.

Non-GAAP measures. Adjusted EBITDA and contribution profit follow Upstart's own definitions. They supplement, and do not replace, GAAP results, and they may not be comparable with other companies' measures. Upstart's earnings release reconciles them to GAAP.

No liability. No liability is accepted for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents.

No affiliation. This presentation is not affiliated with, reviewed or endorsed by Upstart Holdings, Inc. and does not represent Upstart's views. Company and product names belong to their owners.

How it was made. The deck was built with DeepCell, with figures linked to a model in the file. Readers should check the figures against the original filings and consult a qualified professional adviser before making any investment decision.

Date of analysis. The analysis reflects information available as of November 3, 2026. It will not be updated for later events, and views may change without notice.

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21

21 · Disclosures

Sources

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