Is Eli Lilly stock a buy after Q3 2026 earnings?

HOLD: Eli Lilly is worth $1,137 against the $1,409 price, just inside the SELL line.

Eli Lilly · Q3 2026 · Published Nov 5, 2026 · Data cut-off: 2026-10-29 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

1 · Cover

HOLD: Eli Lilly is worth $1,137, 19% below the $1,409 price, after tirzepatide reached $16,075M

The tirzepatide beat lifted our value, but the price rose further. We would buy at $988 or below and sell above $1,421.

HOLD
Base value per share$1,137up from $1,122 before results
Price, 3 November close$1,409$1,273 before results
Value if tirzepatide stays strong$1,208short of the $1,621 a BUY needs
Average analyst target$1,442above every case we model
Tirzepatide volume earned the higher value.

It reached $16,075M against our $15,094M, with U.S. volume up 41%.

U.S. price is falling faster.

Excluding rebate adjustments it fell 10%, against about 9% in Q2, and about $900M of Q3 revenue will not repeat.

The pipeline does not close the gap.

Foundayo reached $184M against our $255M. With retatrutide at $13,000M by FY2031E, the value is still below the price.

Source: Eli Lilly Q3 2026 results press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 29 October 2026) · Eli Lilly Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (Bullfincher), call held 29 October 2026 · stockanalysis.com: LLY historical prices (close 3 November 2026) · stockanalysis.com: LLY analyst forecast (S&P Global consensus, 31 analysts, updated 2 November 2026)

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2 · Our view

Q3 beat consensus and our forecast: revenue of $24,397M and EPS of $7.48

Eli Lilly gives no quarterly guide, so the bar is consensus and our forecast. Revenue and EPS cleared both; Foundayo did not.

Exhibit 1: Revenue by quarter against Q3 consensus

USD millions; the grey bar is reported Q3, the dashed line Q3 consensus

Revenue · Q3 2025A: 17,601Revenue · Q1 2026A: 19,799Revenue · Q2 2026A: 22,974Revenue · Q3 2026: 24,397010,00020,00030,000Q3 2025AQ1 2026AQ2 2026AQ3 202617,60119,79922,97424,397Q3 consensus: 22,110

Exhibit 2: Q3 2026: reported against expectations

Consensus, our forecast before results, and the reported figure

USD millions, except per share
Q3 2026 · ConsensusQ3 2026 · Our forecastQ3 2026 · Actual
Revenue$M22,11023,03624,397
Tirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound)$M15,09416,075
Foundayo (orforglipron)$M255184
Non-GAAP EPS (includes acquired IPR&D)$5.385.507.48
Non-GAAP EPS ex IPR&D$10.8712.05

About $900M of this will not repeat. Q3 revenue included $410M of Jardiance milestones, with none left to come, and favorable rebate adjustments.

Source: Eli Lilly Q3 2026 results press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 29 October 2026) · Zacks Equity Research via Yahoo Finance — Earnings Preview: Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 Earnings Expected to Decline (22 Oct 2026)

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3 · Q3 results

Tirzepatide reached $16,075M against our $15,094M, on volume while U.S. price fell

Mounjaro and Zepbound carry the company. Volume did the work, and the price fell further than the headline shows.

Exhibit 3: Mounjaro and Zepbound by quarter

USD millions; reported to Q3 2026, Q4 2026 is our forecast; tirzepatide total above each column

Mounjaro · Q3 2025A: 6,515Mounjaro · Q1 2026A: 8,662Mounjaro · Q2 2026A: 9,943Mounjaro · Q3 2026: 10,723Mounjaro · Q4 2026E: 11,045Zepbound · Q3 2025A: 3,588Zepbound · Q1 2026A: 4,160Zepbound · Q2 2026A: 4,928Zepbound · Q3 2026: 5,352Zepbound · Q4 2026E: 5,513Q3 2025AQ1 2026AQ2 2026AQ3 2026Q4 2026E05,00010,00015,00020,00010,10312,82214,87116,07516,557On the year: +59%ForecastMounjaroZepbound
Tirzepatide growth on the year59%66% of Q3 revenue
Fall in U.S. price, excluding rebate adjustments10%7% as reported, on 41% more volume

Source: Eli Lilly Q3 2026 results press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 29 October 2026) · Eli Lilly Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (Bullfincher), call held 29 October 2026

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4 · Tirzepatide

Eli Lilly raised its revenue guide to $91,000M to $92,000M; we sit $264M above the top

The new midpoint clears the $89,500M we said would confirm our run-rate. EPS guidance fell only because of the Q3 charge.

Exhibit 4: FY2026 revenue: the prior guide, the new guide, consensus and our forecast

USD millions; bars are the guided ranges with their midpoints; the dashed line is the midpoint we said would confirm our run-rate

Low · Prior guide, 5 Aug 2026: 85,000Point · Prior guide, 5 Aug 2026: 86,000Low · New guide, 29 Oct 2026: 91,000Point · New guide, 29 Oct 2026: 91,500Low · Consensus: 91,860Point · Consensus: 91,860Low · Our forecast: 92,264Point · Our forecast: 92,264Prior guide, 5 Aug 2026New guide, 29 Oct 2026ConsensusOur forecast84,00087,50090,00093,00085,000–87,00091,000–92,00091,86092,264Midpoint we said would confirm us: 89,500
Our FY2026E revenue$92,264Mcarries the Q3 one-offs into Q4
Our FY2026E non-GAAP EPS$35.57guide $35.00 to $36.00, from $35.50 to $36.50

Source: Eli Lilly Q3 2026 results press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 29 October 2026) · stockanalysis.com: LLY analyst forecast (S&P Global consensus, 31 analysts, updated 2 November 2026)

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5 · The guide

Beyond the quarter: what the shares already pay for

6 · Beyond the quarter

EPS of $7.48 beat our $5.50, and a smaller IPR&D charge was part of it

All EPS here is Eli Lilly’s non-GAAP figure, which keeps acquired IPR&D in. Before the charge, the comparison is like for like.

Exhibit 5: Q3 2026 non-GAAP EPS, before and after acquired IPR&D

USD per share, reported; the red step is acquired IPR&D, the dashed line Q3 consensus

Q3 2026 · Non-GAAP EPS ex IPR&D: $12.05Q3 2026 · Less acquired IPR&D: -$4.57Q3 2026 · Non-GAAP EPS (includes acquired IPR&D): $7.48$0.0$2.5$5.0$7.5$10.0$12.5$14.0Non-GAAP EPS ex IPR&DLess acquired IPR&DNon-GAAP EPS (includesacquired IPR&D)$12.05-$4.57$7.48Q3 consensus: $5.38
Q3 EPS before acquired IPR&D$12.05our forecast $10.87
Acquired IPR&D per share$4.57our forecast $5.37

Source: Eli Lilly Q3 2026 results press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 29 October 2026) · Zacks Equity Research via Yahoo Finance — Earnings Preview: Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 Earnings Expected to Decline (22 Oct 2026)

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7 · Earnings quality

Value now rests on FY2027E: $109,642M of revenue with Foundayo at $3,974M

FY2027E grows the Q4 run-rate, so the tirzepatide beat carries forward and so does the Foundayo miss.

Exhibit 6: Tirzepatide against the rest of Eli Lilly, FY2021A to FY2031E

Revenue, USD billions, FY2021A to FY2031E; total above each column

Tirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) · FY2022A: $0BTirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) · FY2023A: $5BTirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) · FY2024A: $16BTirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) · FY2025A: $37BTirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) · FY2026E: $60BTirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) · FY2027E: $73BTirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) · FY2028E: $81BTirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) · FY2029E: $85BTirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) · FY2030E: $89BTirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) · FY2031E: $91BAll other revenue · FY2021A: $28BAll other revenue · FY2022A: $28BAll other revenue · FY2023A: $29BAll other revenue · FY2024A: $29BAll other revenue · FY2025A: $29BAll other revenue · FY2026E: $32BAll other revenue · FY2027E: $36BAll other revenue · FY2028E: $40BAll other revenue · FY2029E: $40BAll other revenue · FY2030E: $45BAll other revenue · FY2031E: $48BFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031E$0B$50B$100B$150B$28B$29B$34B$45B$65B$92B$110B$120B$126B$133B$139BForecastTirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound)All other revenue
FY2027E revenue$109,642Mconsensus $105,960M

New launches fill the fades. Foundayo reaches $3,974M in FY2027E; retatrutide, not yet approved, is $13,000M by FY2031E. Jardiance, Trulicity and Verzenio fade by contract and statute.

Source: Eli Lilly Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (filed 29 October 2026) · Eli Lilly Q3 2026 results press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 29 October 2026)

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8 · Growth

Every forward case values Eli Lilly below the price

Tirzepatide volume holds the value up, U.S. price holds it back, and the pipeline does not close the gap to the price.

Exhibit 7: Value per share by case, against the price and the rating lines

USD per share; base on WACC 7.5% and terminal growth 3.0%; the marker is the base value

Low · Forward cases: price reset to tirzepatide strong: $903Base value · Forward cases: price reset to tirzepatide strong: $1,137Low · DCF: base to exit multiple: $1,137Base value · DCF: base to exit multiple: $1,137Low · Average analyst target: $1,442Base value · Average analyst target: $1,442Forward cases: price reset to tirzepatidestrongDCF: base to exit multipleAverage analyst target$750$1,000$1,250$1,500$1,750$903–$1,208$1,137–$1,243$1,442SELL below: $1,128Price: $1,409BUY from: $1,621

The price pays for more than we can underwrite. Tirzepatide staying strong gives $1,208; the 18.0x exit multiple gives $1,243, a cross-check and not a target; the price is 28.7x FY2027E earnings.

Sources: terminal growth, CBO — The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055 · price, stockanalysis.com: LLY historical prices (close 3 November 2026) · stockanalysis.com: LLY analyst forecast (S&P Global consensus, 31 analysts, updated 2 November 2026)

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9 · Valuation

What would change the rating from here

This is a narrow HOLD. A small rise in the price, or the Q3 one-offs dropping out, moves it to SELL.

If we seeValue per shareRating
Shares at $988 or belowThe base, 15% above the priceBUY
Shares above $1,421The base, more than 20% below the priceSELL
Tirzepatide stays strong through FY2028$1,208HOLD. BUY needs $1,621 at this price
The Q3 one-offs drop out of the run-rate$1,111SELL. SELL starts below $1,128
Tirzepatide slows in Q4 and 2027$1,049SELL
U.S. price resets and tirzepatide stalls$903SELL

HOLD. The next test is Q4 results and the 2027 guide in January, read on U.S. price before adjustments.

Source: Eli Lilly Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (Bullfincher), call held 29 October 2026 · values from the forward cases and the rating rule

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10 · What would change the rating

What we said and what happened: the beat came, and U.S. price crossed the line we set for SELL

We said U.S. price falling faster than about 9% meant SELL, even on a revenue beat. Excluding rebate adjustments it fell 10%.

We said HOLD before results.

The value sat below the $1,273 price. We expected a revenue beat, and named two roads to SELL: a tirzepatide miss, or that fall in U.S. price.

Value before results$1,122on Q3 tirzepatide of $15,094M
The price line was hit.

U.S. price fell 7% as reported and 10% on the basis we used. Our forecast was too low on tirzepatide and too high on Foundayo.

Value now$1,137on Q3 tirzepatide of $16,075M
We did not follow that row.

It assumed a price reset worth $903, with tirzepatide stalling. U.S. volume instead rose 41%, and the value stays above the $1,128 where SELL starts, so the rating rule still gives HOLD. Without the Q3 one-offs it would not.

Source: Eli Lilly Q3 2026 results press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 29 October 2026) · Eli Lilly Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (Bullfincher), call held 29 October 2026 · Eli Lilly Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (filed 29 October 2026)

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11 · What we said and what happened

Sources

Not investment advice. Any rating here is this model's view of value against price at the data cut-off.

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