Is ExxonMobil stock a buy after Q3 2026 earnings?

SELL: ExxonMobil is worth $156.96 against a $177.46 price, which pays for oil we do not forecast.

ExxonMobil · Q3 2026 · Published Nov 5, 2026 · Data cut-off: 2026-11-04 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

1 · Cover

SELL: ExxonMobil is worth $156.96 against a $177.46 price, which pays for oil we do not forecast

The Q3 beat raised the value a little and the shares fell, but the gap is still wider than 10%. We would buy at $142.70 or below and sell above $174.41.

SELL
Base value per share $156.96 up from $155.85 before results
Price, 3 November close $177.46 $183.21 before results
Value if refining margins hold $162 the one forward case that reaches HOLD
Median analyst target $185 above every case we model
The price pays for oil we do not forecast.

It implies Brent of about $79 from 2028. We forecast $70, near where EIA sees prices settling.

The beat came from refining, and refining fades.

Energy Products earned $17.10 a barrel, over four times mid-cycle. Margins that high do not last.

The payout outruns cash in 2028.

On our oil forecast, dividends and buybacks exceed free cash flow by $1,733M in FY2028E.

Source: ExxonMobil Form 8-K, 30 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results · stockanalysis.com: XOM daily price history (close 3 November 2026) · stockanalysis.com: XOM analyst forecast (S&P Global poll, 3 November 2026)

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2 · Our view

Q3 beat consensus and our forecast: adjusted EPS of $4.23 on $17,505M of adjusted earnings

ExxonMobil does not guide earnings. It reported above the $3.96 consensus and our $4.01, and refining did the work.

Exhibit 1: Adjusted EPS by quarter, 2026

USD per diluted share, all reported; the line is the Q3 consensus

Adjusted EPS, diluted ($) · Q1 2026A: $2.09Adjusted EPS, diluted ($) · Q2 2026A: $3.52Adjusted EPS, diluted ($) · Q3 2026: $4.23$0$1$2$3$4$5Q1 2026AQ2 2026AQ3 2026$2.09$3.52$4.23Q3 consensus: $3.96On Q2: $0.71

Exhibit 2: Q3 2026: reported against expectations

Zacks consensus of 23 October, our forecast before results, and the reported figure

USD millions, EPS in USD
Q3 2026 · ConsensusQ3 2026 · Our forecastQ3 2026 · Actual
Adjusted EPS, diluted ($)$3.964.014.23
Adjusted earnings (non-GAAP)$M16,621.017,505.0
Upstream adjusted$M7,389.07,308.0
Energy Products adjusted$M8,099.09,053.0
Total revenues and other income$M102,740.0107,463.0113,164.0

Refining beat; Upstream fell just short. Energy Products reported $9,053M against our $8,099M. Upstream reported $7,308M against our $7,389M.

Source: ExxonMobil Form 8-K, 30 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results · Zacks via Yahoo Finance: Q3 consensus preview (23 October 2026)

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3 · Q3 results

Refining added $4,500M as the 8-K said, and Energy Products beat those factors by $554M

The 8-K of 16 October sized the quarter. Its factors implied $17,080M; the company reported $17,505M.

Exhibit 3: From Q2 adjusted earnings to reported Q3

USD millions; the 8-K factors as filed on 16 October 2026, then the differences to reported; the axis is broken below Q2

Adjusted earnings · Q2 adjusted earnings: $14,680MAdjusted earnings · Q2 adjusted earnings: $14,680MAdjusted earnings · Upstream liquids prices: -$1,300MAdjusted earnings · Gas and other Upstream: -$500MAdjusted earnings · Refining margins: $4,500MAdjusted earnings · Chemical and other: -$300MAdjusted earnings · What the 8-K implies: $17,080MAdjusted earnings · What the 8-K implies: $17,080MAdjusted earnings · Refining above factors: $554MAdjusted earnings · Other and Corporate: -$129MAdjusted earnings · Q3 reported: $17,505MAdjusted earnings · Q3 reported: $17,505MQ2 adjustedearningsUpstreamliquids pricesGas and otherUpstreamRefiningmarginsChemical andotherWhat the 8-KimpliesRefining abovefactorsOther andCorporateQ3 reported$14,680M-$1,300M-$500M$4,500M-$300M$17,080M$554M-$129M$17,505M

Realizations fell more than Brent did. The liquids line implied $8.19 a barrel lower; Brent fell $6.95. Upstream landed $81M under the factors on an accelerated Guyana entitlement impact.

Source: ExxonMobil Form 8-K, 16 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1: 3Q 2026 market and planned impacts to earnings · ExxonMobil Form 8-K, 30 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results

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4 · The 8-K factors

GAAP came in below adjusted, as the 8-K said it would

Consensus is an adjusted number. The gap to GAAP is timing, and timing reverses.

Exhibit 4: Adjusted earnings and GAAP net income, Q1 to Q3 2026

USD billions, Q3 labelled in millions; all reported

Adjusted earnings (non-GAAP) · Q1 2026A: $8,772MAdjusted earnings (non-GAAP) · Q2 2026A: $14,680MAdjusted earnings (non-GAAP) · Q3 2026: $17,505MNet income attributable to ExxonMobil · Q1 2026A: $4,183MNet income attributable to ExxonMobil · Q2 2026A: $14,525MNet income attributable to ExxonMobil · Q3 2026: $15,413M$0B$5B$10B$15B$20BQ1 2026AQ2 2026AQ3 2026$17,505M$15,413MAdjusted earnings (non-GAAP)Net income attributable to ExxonMobil
Q3 GAAP EPS, reported $3.72 against $4.23 adjusted
Timing effects, reported $2,541M off the GAAP result; the 8-K flagged $2,500M

Source: ExxonMobil Form 8-K, 30 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results · ExxonMobil Form 8-K, 16 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1: 3Q 2026 market and planned impacts to earnings

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5 · Earnings quality

The refining beat lifted 2026 earnings, not the value

Only a quarter of the margin above mid-cycle carries into 2027, and none of it past 2028.

Exhibit 5: Energy Products earnings per barrel against mid-cycle

USD per barrel of refined product sold, by year; the line is the 2023 to 2025 average

Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2022A: $8.02Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2023A: $6.02Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2024A: $2.00Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2025A: $3.40Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2026E: $10.94Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2027E: $7.13Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2028E: $5.14Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2029E: $3.81Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2030E: $3.81Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2031E: $3.81-$4$0$5$12FY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031E$8.02$10.94ForecastMid-cycle: $3.81Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2021A: -$0.19Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2022A: $8.02Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2023A: $6.02Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2024A: $2.00Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2025A: $3.40Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2026E: $10.94Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2027E: $7.13Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2028E: $5.14Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2029E: $3.81Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2030E: $3.81Energy Products adjusted earnings per barrel sold ($/bbl) · FY2031E: $3.81
Energy Products per barrel, Q3 $17.10 over four times the $3.81 mid-cycle
Value if margins hold $162 above the $160 a HOLD needs, if margins last into 2029

Source: ExxonMobil Form 8-K, 30 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results · ExxonMobil Form 10-K FY2025: segment earnings and earnings excluding identified items, 2023-2025

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6 · What the beat is worth

Upstream volumes grow toward 5.5M barrels a day by 2030, but earnings fall back as oil and margins normalize

FY2027E still carries oil and refining margins above our long-run forecast; FY2028E is the first year at it.

Exhibit 6: Upstream and Energy Products adjusted earnings, FY2025A-FY2031E

USD billions, the two segments that move with oil and refining margins; labelled at the step onto the long-run forecast

Upstream adjusted · FY2025A: $22BUpstream adjusted · FY2026E: $31BUpstream adjusted · FY2027E: $28BUpstream adjusted · FY2028E: $25BUpstream adjusted · FY2029E: $29BUpstream adjusted · FY2030E: $30BUpstream adjusted · FY2031E: $30BEnergy Products adjusted · FY2025A: $7BEnergy Products adjusted · FY2026E: $23BEnergy Products adjusted · FY2027E: $15BEnergy Products adjusted · FY2028E: $11BEnergy Products adjusted · FY2029E: $8BEnergy Products adjusted · FY2030E: $8BEnergy Products adjusted · FY2031E: $8B$0B$20B$40B$60BFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031E$28B$25B$15B$11BForecastUpstream adjustedEnergy Products adjusted
Net income, FY2027E to FY2028E $37,808M from $44,458M, as Brent steps down

Q3 production was 4.496M barrels a day, just under our 4.500M floor. Entitlements took 87 thousand and growth added 74 thousand, so we keep the volume plan.

Source: ExxonMobil Form 8-K, 30 October 2026, Exhibit 99.2: 3Q26 investor relations data summary · ExxonMobil Form 10-K FY2025: segment earnings and earnings excluding identified items, 2023-2025

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7 · Growth

The dividend and the $20,000M buyback are covered through 2027, and exceed free cash flow in 2028

The company has announced the buyback for 2027. Held through lower oil, it is paid from the balance sheet.

Exhibit 7: Free cash flow against dividends and buybacks paid

USD billions, by year; FY2025A reported; FY2028E payout in red

Free cash flow (CFO plus additions to PP&E) · FY2025A: $24BFree cash flow (CFO plus additions to PP&E) · FY2026E: $59BFree cash flow (CFO plus additions to PP&E) · FY2027E: $43BFree cash flow (CFO plus additions to PP&E) · FY2028E: $36BFree cash flow (CFO plus additions to PP&E) · FY2029E: $40BFree cash flow (CFO plus additions to PP&E) · FY2030E: $42BFree cash flow (CFO plus additions to PP&E) · FY2031E: $42BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2025A: $38BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2026E: $37BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2027E: $37BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2028E: $37BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2029E: $38BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2030E: $38BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2031E: $38B$0B$20B$40B$60BFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031E$59B$36B$37B$37BFree cash flow (CFO plus additions to PP&E)Dividends and buybacks paid
Payout above free cash flow, FY2028E $1,733M on $35,673M of free cash flow, after $58,663M in FY2026E
Q3 free cash flow, company measure $19,109M the dividend yields 2.3% at the price

Source: ExxonMobil Form 8-K, 30 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results · ExxonMobil Form 10-Q Q2 2026: 2026 capital spending plan of $27 billion to $29 billion

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8 · Capital return

The base value sits below the HOLD line, and only margins holding reaches it

The cases are not weighted. They show that long-run oil moves the value far more than any one quarter.

Exhibit 8: Value per share by case, against the price and the rating lines

USD per share; each band runs low to high, the tick is the base value; WACC 8.1%, terminal growth 2.0%

Low · DCF: exit multiple to Gordon growth: $143Base value · DCF: exit multiple to Gordon growth: $157Low · Refining and volumes: realizations slip to margins hold: $156Base value · Refining and volumes: realizations slip to margins hold: $157Low · Long-run oil: oil at $55 to our forecast: $121Base value · Long-run oil: oil at $55 to our forecast: $157DCF: exit multiple to Gordon growthRefining and volumes: realizations slip tomargins holdLong-run oil: oil at $55 to our forecast$100$125$150$175$200$143–$157$156–$162$121–$157Price: $177.46HOLD from: $159.71BUY from: $195.21

The base value is 12% below the price. The $142.89 exit-multiple value is a cross-check below it; the shares trade on 16.0x FY2027E earnings.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury: daily par yield curve rates (10-year, 23 October 2026) · stockanalysis.com: XOM daily price history (close 3 November 2026)

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9 · Valuation

The price pays for Brent near $80 from 2028; we forecast $70

Long-run oil is where we differ from the price, and one quarter does not settle it.

Exhibit 9: Brent, reported and our forecast

USD per barrel, annual average; EIA for 2027, then our long-run forecast

Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2022A: $101Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2023A: $82Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2024A: $81Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2025A: $69Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2026E: $96Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2027E: $84Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2028E: $70Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2029E: $70Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2030E: $70Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2031E: $70$0$25$50$75$100$120FY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031E$101$96$84$70Our forecastBrent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2021A: $71Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2022A: $101Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2023A: $82Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2024A: $81Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2025A: $69Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2026E: $96Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2027E: $84Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2028E: $70Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2029E: $70Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2030E: $70Brent crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2031E: $70
Brent the price implies, from 2028 $79 against our $70
Brent for 2027, EIA $84 falling as Middle East production returns and inventories rebuild

HOLD needs Brent above $71 from 2028, and BUY above $87. At $55 the value is $121: the structural downside is oil, not the quarter.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration: Short-Term Energy Outlook (release of 6 October 2026)

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10 · What the price implies

What would change the rating from here

Price or long-run oil moves the rating. One quarter of refining does not.

If we see Value per share Rating
Shares at $142.70 or below The base, 10% above the price BUY
Shares at $174.41 or below The base, within 10% of the price HOLD
Refining margins hold into 2029 $162 HOLD, above the $160 line at this price
Realizations and volumes slip $156 SELL
Oil at $55 from 2028 $121 SELL

SELL. The shares pay for more oil than we forecast, and the next tests are the December plan and the Q4 report.

Source: ExxonMobil Form 8-K, 30 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results · values from the forward cases and the rating rule

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11 · What would change the rating

What we said and what happened: SELL stood, and our forecast was too low

Before results we set the beat at $4.20 and said a beat would not change the rating. EPS came in at $4.23, and it did not.

We said SELL before results.

The base value sat well below the $183.21 price. We took $400M off the 8-K refining factors.

Value before results $155.85 on our EPS forecast of $4.01
Our haircut was wrong, and the rating held.

Energy Products reported $9,053M against our $8,099M. Production came in just under our floor.

Value now $156.96 on reported EPS of $4.23
The next tests are the plan and Q4.

The December plan resets 2027 volumes and capital. The Q4 report shows how long refining margins last.

Source: ExxonMobil Form 8-K, 30 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results · ExxonMobil Form 8-K, 16 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1: 3Q 2026 market and planned impacts to earnings

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12 · What we said and what happened

Sources

Not investment advice. Any rating here is this model's view of value against price at the data cut-off.

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