Is ConocoPhillips stock a buy after Q3 2026 earnings?

HOLD: ConocoPhillips is worth $136.29 against a $136.27 price, which pays for our oil forecast and no more.

ConocoPhillips · Q3 2026 · Published Nov 9, 2026 · Data cut-off: 2026-11-06 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

1 · Cover

HOLD: ConocoPhillips is worth $136.29 against a $136.27 price, which pays for our oil forecast and no more

The rating stays HOLD because the shares fell 7% to our value. We would buy at $123.90 or below and sell above $151.44.

HOLD
Base value per share $136.29 from $135.28 before results
Price, 6 November close $136.27 $146.84 before results
Long-run WTI the price implies $65.99 we forecast $66.00 from 2028
Median analyst target $150.00 set before results
The price now pays for our oil forecast.

It implied $69.32 WTI before results. It now implies $65.99, level with what we forecast.

Corporate made the beat.

Corporate lost $76M against our $246M. The operating segments together came in a little under our forecast.

The 2027 outline matches the model.

Capital modestly lower, low-single-digit growth, the same share of CFO returned. Management gave no figures, so the forecast stands.

Source: stockanalysis.com: COP price history (close 6 November 2026) · stockanalysis.com: COP analyst forecast, S&P Global (28 October 2026) · The Motley Fool: ConocoPhillips Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (5 November 2026)

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2 · Our view

Q3 beat consensus and our forecast: adjusted EPS of $3.27 against $2.95 and $3.15

Production of 2,302 MBOED landed inside the guide, and adjusted EPS cleared the $3.25 line we set before results.

Exhibit 1: Adjusted EPS by quarter, 2026

USD per diluted share, all reported; the line marked Est is the Q3 consensus

Adjusted EPS ($) · Q1 2026A: $1.89Adjusted EPS ($) · Q2 2026A: $3.24Adjusted EPS ($) · Q3 2026: $3.27$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00Q1 2026AQ2 2026AQ3 2026$1.89$3.24$3.27Est: $2.95

Exhibit 2: Q3 2026: reported against expectations

The guide, Zacks consensus of 28 October, our forecast before results, and the reported figure

Q3 2026 · Company guidanceQ3 2026 · ConsensusQ3 2026 · Our forecastQ3 2026 · Actual
Adjusted EPS ($)$2.953.153.27
Adjusted earnings$M3,771.73,918.0
Total production (MBOED)MBOED2,3052,3052,302
Equity affiliates: production (MBOED)MBOED205179
Total revenues and other income$M18,070.019,051.720,057.0

Corporate made the beat. It lost $76M against our $246M. The operating segments together came in a little under our forecast.

Source: ConocoPhillips Form 8-K, 5 November 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results · Zacks via Yahoo Finance: COP consensus estimates (28 October 2026)

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3 · Q3 results

The company’s sensitivities implied $3,737M; Corporate took the quarter to $3,918M

Prices on the company’s own sensitivities, with reported volumes, landed within $11M before Corporate.

Exhibit 3: From Q2 adjusted earnings to reported Q3

USD millions; price steps on the company’s sensitivities, reported volumes; the axis is broken below Q2

Adjusted earnings · Q2 adjusted earnings: $3,951MAdjusted earnings · Q2 adjusted earnings: $3,951MAdjusted earnings · Crude and bitumen prices: -$619MAdjusted earnings · Gas and NGL prices: $104MAdjusted earnings · LNG on lagged Brent: $214MAdjusted earnings · Volumes, Qatar ramp: $87MAdjusted earnings · What the markers imply: $3,737MAdjusted earnings · What the markers imply: $3,737MAdjusted earnings · Realizations and other: -$11MAdjusted earnings · Corporate: $192MAdjusted earnings · Q3 reported: $3,918MAdjusted earnings · Q3 reported: $3,918MQ2 adjustedearningsCrude andbitumen pricesGas and NGLpricesLNG on laggedBrentVolumes, QatarrampWhat themarkers implyRealizationsand otherCorporateQ3 reported$3,951M-$619M$104M$214M$87M$3,737M-$11M$192M$3,918M

Oil took $619M off the quarter; the lagged LNG price gave $214M back. Corporate added $192M on Q2, and we do not carry that into Q4.

Source: ConocoPhillips: 2026 Sensitivity and Guidance Items (2 October 2026) · ConocoPhillips Form 8-K, 5 November 2026, Exhibit 99.2: third-quarter 2026 detailed supplemental information

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4 · From Q2 to Q3

Equity affiliates produced 179 MBOED, up from 147 in Q2 but short of our 205

Qatar rose but remains below pre-conflict levels. Its barrels earn little, so the shortfall cost volume more than EPS.

Exhibit 4: Equity-affiliate production by quarter, 2026

MBOED; Q1 to Q3 reported, Q4 modeled; the line marks Qatar not ramped

Equity affiliates: production (MBOED) · Q1 2026A: 212Equity affiliates: production (MBOED) · Q2 2026A: 147Equity affiliates: production (MBOED) · Q3 2026: 179Equity affiliates: production (MBOED) · Q4 2026E: 220050100150200250Q1 2026AQ2 2026AQ3 2026Q4 2026E212147179220Qatar not ramped: 180
Q3 production, reported 2,302 MBOED guide 2,290 to 2,320 MBOED; our forecast 2,305
Earnings per equity-affiliate BOE $12.95 Q1 2026, the last quarter Qatar ran normally

Q4 is our figure, not management’s. We carry 220 MBOED; management gave no Qatar figure, and its guide allows for a range of outcomes there.

Source: ConocoPhillips Form 8-K, 5 November 2026, Exhibit 99.2: third-quarter 2026 detailed supplemental information · The Motley Fool: ConocoPhillips Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (5 November 2026)

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5 · Production and Qatar

Earnings quality is not the issue: special items are small, and cash tracks earnings

Consensus is adjusted, and GAAP sits close to it. A tax reserve reversal put GAAP EPS of $3.34 above adjusted EPS.

Exhibit 5: Net income and adjusted earnings, FY2021A-FY2026E

USD billions; FY2026E is three quarters reported and one forecast

Net income · FY2021A: $8BNet income · FY2022A: $19BNet income · FY2023A: $11BNet income · FY2024A: $9BNet income · FY2025A: $8BNet income · FY2026E: $15BAdjusted earnings · FY2021A: $8BAdjusted earnings · FY2022A: $17BAdjusted earnings · FY2023A: $11BAdjusted earnings · FY2024A: $9BAdjusted earnings · FY2025A: $8BAdjusted earnings · FY2026E: $15B$0B$5B$10B$15B$20BFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026E$19B$8B$15B$17B$8B$15BOne quarter to comeNet incomeAdjusted earnings
Special items, Q3 2026 $83M and $246M in all of FY2025A
Company CFO before working capital, Q3 $7,172M on $4,001M of net income

Source: ConocoPhillips Form 8-K, 5 November 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results · ConocoPhillips Form 8-K, 5 November 2026, Exhibit 99.2: third-quarter 2026 detailed supplemental information

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6 · Earnings quality

Volumes grow from 2,375 MBOED to 2,608 MBOED by 2031, but earnings dip first as oil normalizes

For 2027 management expects modestly lower capital and low-single-digit growth; we carry $12,000M and 2,353 MBOED. FY2028E is the first year on long-run oil.

Exhibit 6: Adjusted earnings by segment, FY2025A-FY2031E

USD billions; Lower 48, Alaska, and the three international segments together

Lower 48: adjusted earnings · FY2025A: $5BLower 48: adjusted earnings · FY2026E: $9BLower 48: adjusted earnings · FY2027E: $8BLower 48: adjusted earnings · FY2028E: $6BLower 48: adjusted earnings · FY2029E: $6BLower 48: adjusted earnings · FY2030E: $6BLower 48: adjusted earnings · FY2031E: $6BAlaska: adjusted earnings · FY2025A: $1BAlaska: adjusted earnings · FY2026E: $2BAlaska: adjusted earnings · FY2027E: $1BAlaska: adjusted earnings · FY2028E: $1BAlaska: adjusted earnings · FY2029E: $1BAlaska: adjusted earnings · FY2030E: $1BAlaska: adjusted earnings · FY2031E: $1BCanada, Europe-Middle East-North Africa and Asia Pacific: adjusted earnings · FY2025A: $3BCanada, Europe-Middle East-North Africa and Asia Pacific: adjusted earnings · FY2026E: $4BCanada, Europe-Middle East-North Africa and Asia Pacific: adjusted earnings · FY2027E: $5BCanada, Europe-Middle East-North Africa and Asia Pacific: adjusted earnings · FY2028E: $3BCanada, Europe-Middle East-North Africa and Asia Pacific: adjusted earnings · FY2029E: $3BCanada, Europe-Middle East-North Africa and Asia Pacific: adjusted earnings · FY2030E: $3BCanada, Europe-Middle East-North Africa and Asia Pacific: adjusted earnings · FY2031E: $3B$0B$5B$10B$15BFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031EForecastLower 48: adjusted earningsAlaska: adjusted earningsCanada, Europe-Middle East-North Africa and Asia Pacific: adjusted earnings
Adjusted earnings, FY2027E to FY2028E $9,144M from $12,912M, as WTI steps to the long-run forecast
Willow by FY2031E 140 MBOED first oil on track for early 2029

Source: The Motley Fool: ConocoPhillips Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (5 November 2026) · ConocoPhillips Form 8-K, 5 November 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results

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7 · Growth

The dividend rises to $0.93 a quarter, which changes the split of cash, not the value

We raised the forecast to management’s view: $3.45 for FY2026E, from $3.36. The value was $136.29 before the raise and $136.29 after it, because the payout is a share of CFO.

Exhibit 7: Free cash flow against dividends and buybacks paid

USD billions, by year; FY2025A reported

Free cash flow (operating cash flow less capital) · FY2025A: $7BFree cash flow (operating cash flow less capital) · FY2026E: $14BFree cash flow (operating cash flow less capital) · FY2027E: $13BFree cash flow (operating cash flow less capital) · FY2028E: $9BFree cash flow (operating cash flow less capital) · FY2029E: $11BFree cash flow (operating cash flow less capital) · FY2030E: $12BFree cash flow (operating cash flow less capital) · FY2031E: $12BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2025A: $9BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2026E: $12BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2027E: $11BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2028E: $9BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2029E: $10BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2030E: $10BDividends and buybacks paid · FY2031E: $10B$0B$5B$10B$16BFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031E$14B$11B$12B$10BForecastFree cash flow (operating cash flow less capital)Dividends and buybacks paid
Free cash flow less the payout, FY2028E $70M after $14,324M of free cash flow in FY2026E
Dividend yield at the price 2.5% on the FY2026E dividend per share

Source: ConocoPhillips Form 8-K, 5 November 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results · The Motley Fool: ConocoPhillips Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (5 November 2026)

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8 · Capital return

The base value sits level with the price, and only low oil falls through the SELL line

The cases are not weighted. They show which inputs move the value: Qatar and the Lower 48 margin move it a little, oil a lot.

Exhibit 8: Value per share by driver, against the price

USD per share; each band runs low to high, the tick is the base value; WACC 8.5%, terminal growth 1.5%

Low · DCF: exit multiple to Gordon growth: $124Base value · DCF: exit multiple to Gordon growth: $136Low · Qatar slow to Qatar back: $131Base value · Qatar slow to Qatar back: $136Low · Long-run oil: WTI at $55 to our forecast: $94Base value · Long-run oil: WTI at $55 to our forecast: $136DCF: exit multiple to Gordon growthQatar slow to Qatar backLong-run oil: WTI at $55 to our forecast$80$100$125$150$170$124–$136$131–$140$94–$136Price: $136.27SELL below: $122.64BUY above: $149.90

Every case but low oil is a HOLD at this price. The $123.66 exit-multiple value is a cross-check below the Gordon-growth value; the shares trade on 12.2x FY2027E earnings.

Source: US Treasury par yield curve, 10-year (2 November 2026) · stockanalysis.com: COP price history (close 6 November 2026)

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9 · Valuation

The price now implies $65.99 WTI from 2028, level with our $66.00

Before results the shares paid for $69.32 for good. The rating moves on long-run oil, and a quarterly report does not reveal it.

Exhibit 9: WTI, reported and our forecast

USD per barrel, annual average; EIA for Q4 2026 and 2027, then our long-run forecast

WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2022A: $94WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2023A: $78WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2024A: $76WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2025A: $65WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2026E: $87WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2027E: $80WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2028E: $66WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2029E: $66WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2030E: $66WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2031E: $66$0$25$50$75$100$120FY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031E$94$65$87$80$66Our forecastWTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2021A: $68WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2022A: $94WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2023A: $78WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2024A: $76WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2025A: $65WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2026E: $87WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2027E: $80WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2028E: $66WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2029E: $66WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2030E: $66WTI crude, average ($/bbl) · FY2031E: $66
Long-run WTI for a BUY at this price $69.90 and $62.08 or less for a SELL
Value of each dollar of long-run WTI $3.48 a share, on $315M a year after tax

Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 2 (October 2026) · ConocoPhillips: 2026 Sensitivity and Guidance Items (2 October 2026)

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10 · What the price implies

What would change the rating from here

Price or long-run oil moves the rating. One quarter does not.

If we see Value per share Rating
Shares at $123.90 or below The base, 10% above the price BUY
Shares above $151.44 The base, more than 10% below the price SELL
Qatar back, Lower 48 margin holds $139.57 HOLD, under the $149.90 BUY line at this price
Qatar slow, Lower 48 margin slips $130.71 HOLD, above the $122.64 SELL line at this price
WTI at $55 from 2028 $94.44 SELL

HOLD. At this price, long-run WTI of $69.90 or more makes a BUY, and $62.08 or less a SELL.

Source: ConocoPhillips Form 8-K, 5 November 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results · values from the forward cases and the rating rule

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11 · What would change the rating

What we said and what happened: HOLD stood, and the price came down to our value

We said HOLD at $146.84 on a $135.28 value. Our EPS forecast of $3.15 was too low, and our Qatar forecast of 205 too high.

The line we set before results What happened Result
Adjusted EPS above $3.25 $3.27 reported Crossed, on Corporate rather than Qatar
Equity affiliates below 180 MBOED 179 MBOED reported Crossed, just: Qatar has not fully ramped
Production under 2,290 MBOED 2,302 MBOED reported Not crossed: inside the guide
2027 capital above $12,500M No figure; management expects modestly lower Not crossed

Qatar crossed the line, and North Field East is now due in the first half of 2027. Our forecast already starts it in 2027. If the slow case applies, its $130.71 is still a HOLD at this price.

Source: ConocoPhillips Form 8-K, 5 November 2026, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results · ConocoPhillips Form 8-K, 5 November 2026, Exhibit 99.2: third-quarter 2026 detailed supplemental information · The Motley Fool: ConocoPhillips Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (5 November 2026)

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12 · What we said and what happened

Sources

Not investment advice. Any rating here is this model's view of value against price at the data cut-off.

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