Is Novo Nordisk stock a buy after Q3 2026 earnings?

HOLD: Novo Nordisk is worth DKK 272 against a DKK 269.45 price, after the Wegovy pill reached DKK 5,394M.

Novo Nordisk · Q3 2026 · Published Nov 9, 2026 · Data cut-off: 2026-11-04 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

1 · Cover

HOLD: Novo Nordisk is worth DKK 272, 1% above the DKK 269.45 price

The results lifted our value; the price ended near where it began. Buy at DKK 237 or below, sell above DKK 340.

HOLD
Base value per shareDKK 272up from DKK 246 before results
Price, 6 November closeDKK 269.45DKK 270.20 before results; New York ADR $40.31
Value if Wegovy keeps beatingDKK 293short of the DKK 310 a BUY needs
Average analyst targetDKK 297above every case we model
The pill and International are the growth.

The pill reached DKK 5,394M against our DKK 4,183M, and International Operations grew 8% at CER.

US price takes much of it back.

US Operations grew 1% at CER. List prices fall about 50% for Wegovy and 35% for Ozempic in January, so FY2027E sales stay flat at DKK 307,384M.

Ozempic is on a patent clock.

It fell 5% at CER in Q3, and we take it to DKK 76,825M by FY2031E, ahead of the 2032 US expiry.

Source: Novo Nordisk Q3 2026 report (Form 6-K, company announcement No 65/2026, 4 Nov 2026) · stockanalysis.com: NOVO B close, 6 Nov 2026 · stockanalysis.com: NVO close, 6 Nov 2026 · stockanalysis.com: analyst consensus

2 / 10

2 · Our view

Q3 beat: adjusted sales of DKK 79,195M and adjusted operating profit of DKK 31,720M

Novo gives no quarterly guide, so the bar is consensus and our forecast. Sales and adjusted profit cleared both.

Exhibit 1: Adjusted sales by quarter

DKK million; the grey bar is reported Q3, the dashed line Q3 consensus of DKK 73,200M

Adjusted sales (excluding the 340B reversals) · Q3 2025A: 74,976Adjusted sales (excluding the 340B reversals) · Q4 2025A: 79,144Adjusted sales (excluding the 340B reversals) · Q1 2026A: 70,063Adjusted sales (excluding the 340B reversals) · Q2 2026A: 78,488Adjusted sales (excluding the 340B reversals) · Q3 2026: 79,195025,00050,00075,00090,000Q3 2025AQ4 2025AQ1 2026AQ2 2026AQ3 202674,97678,48879,195Cons.: 73,200

Exhibit 2: Q3 2026: reported against expectations

Consensus, our forecast before results, and the reported figure

DKK million
Q3 2026 · ConsensusQ3 2026 · Our forecastQ3 2026 · Actual
Adjusted sales (excluding the 340B reversals)DKK M73,20075,37979,195
Wegovy injectableDKK M19,90020,16720,407
Wegovy pillDKK M4,6004,1835,394
OzempicDKK M26,50028,10029,706
Adjusted operating profitDKK M28,40029,27331,720

Adjusted basis. Q3 had no 340B reversal, so sales match. Reported operating profit of DKK 23,011M is after DKK 8,709M of impairments.

Source: Novo Nordisk Q3 2026 report (Form 6-K, company announcement No 65/2026, 4 Nov 2026) · ProInvestorNews: company-compiled consensus, 3 Nov 2026

3 / 10

3 · Q3 results

The Wegovy pill and US volume carried Q3, while International injectable fell on Q2

The pill is the largest source of growth. US injectable rose on Q2 but is still falling on the year.

Exhibit 3: Wegovy by quarter: US, International and the pill

DKK million, adjusted; reported to Q3 2026, Q4 2026 is our forecast; franchise total above each column

US Wegovy injectable · Q3 2025A: 12,532US Wegovy injectable · Q4 2025A: 13,767US Wegovy injectable · Q1 2026A: 9,493US Wegovy injectable · Q2 2026A: 9,636US Wegovy injectable · Q3 2026: 11,066US Wegovy injectable · Q4 2026E: 11,287International Wegovy injectable · Q3 2025A: 7,822International Wegovy injectable · Q4 2025A: 8,097International Wegovy injectable · Q1 2026A: 8,742International Wegovy injectable · Q2 2026A: 9,848International Wegovy injectable · Q3 2026: 9,341International Wegovy injectable · Q4 2026E: 9,715Wegovy pill · Q1 2026A: 2,256Wegovy pill · Q2 2026A: 3,218Wegovy pill · Q3 2026: 5,394Wegovy pill · Q4 2026E: 6,203Q3 2025AQ4 2025AQ1 2026AQ2 2026AQ3 2026Q4 2026E010,00020,00030,00020,35421,86420,49122,70225,80127,205Our forecastQ3 on Q2: +3,099US Wegovy injectableInternational Wegovy injectableWegovy pill
Wegovy pill, all marketsDKK 5,394MDKK 4,178M US and DKK 1,216M International; our DKK 4,183M also covered all markets

The injectable split. US DKK 11,066M against our DKK 9,925M, -13% on the year at CER. International DKK 9,341M against our DKK 10,242M: 16% on the year, down from DKK 9,848M in Q2.

Source: Novo Nordisk Q3 2026 report (Form 6-K, company announcement No 65/2026, 4 Nov 2026)

4 / 10

4 · Wegovy

Novo raised its outlook to -2% to +2% at CER; our FY2026E of DKK 308,085M sits inside it

Reported Q3 carried our year into the new range, so Q4 sales and margins stay as they were. We raised the forecast to management’s view on capex and cash.

Exhibit 4: FY2026 adjusted sales: the guide, consensus and our forecast

DKK million; bars are the guided ranges with their midpoints

Low · Guide, 4 Aug 2026: 284,966Point · Guide, 4 Aug 2026: 294,158Low · Guide, 4 Nov 2026: 300,287Point · Guide, 4 Nov 2026: 306,415Low · Consensus before results: 299,500Point · Consensus before results: 299,500Low · Our forecast: 308,085Point · Our forecast: 308,085Guide, 4 Aug 2026Guide, 4 Nov 2026Consensus before resultsOur forecast280,000290,000300,000315,000284,966–303,351300,287–312,543299,500308,085
Value after management’s figuresDKK 272.10from DKK 271.91 on reported Q3 and our old forecast

What management stated. Capex DKK 50,000M, from DKK 55,000M. Free cash flow DKK 60,000M to DKK 70,000M; we moved to the low end. Our adjusted operating profit of DKK 125,805M is inside DKK 122,509M to DKK 127,509M.

Source: Novo Nordisk Q3 2026 report (Form 6-K, company announcement No 65/2026, 4 Nov 2026) · ProInvestorNews: company-compiled consensus, 3 Nov 2026

5 / 10

5 · The guide

Reported profit carries two non-cash items; adjusted operating profit is the number to judge

The DKK 26,760M 340B reversal lifts reported 2026 profit and DKK 8,709M of Q3 impairments cut it. Neither is cash.

Exhibit 5: FY2026E operating profit: reported to adjusted

DKK million; axis broken below the bars; the red step is the reversal, the dashed line the top of the profit guide

FY2026E · Operating profit (EBIT): 137,528FY2026E · Operating profit (EBIT): 137,528FY2026E · Less: 340B provision reversal: -26,760FY2026E · Add back: major impairments: 15,037FY2026E · Adjusted operating profit: 125,805FY2026E · Adjusted operating profit: 125,805Operating profit (EBIT)Less: 340B provision reversalAdd back: major impairmentsAdjusted operating profit137,528-26,76015,037125,805Top of the guide: 127,509

Reported DKK 137,528M, adjusted DKK 125,805M. Q3 adjusted profit carries about DKK 3,500M of one-time costs, and its 27% growth at CER rests on a year-ago quarter with about DKK 9,000M of transformation costs.

Source: Novo Nordisk Q3 2026 report (Form 6-K, company announcement No 65/2026, 4 Nov 2026)

6 / 10

6 · Earnings quality

Value now rests on FY2027E, the first year after the US list-price cut

FY2027E grows the Q4 run-rate after the January list-price cut, so the Q3 beat carries into the year that drives the value.

Exhibit 6: Obesity, Diabetes, and Blood and endocrine disorders

Net sales, DKK billions, FY2021A to FY2031E; total above each column, FY2026E including the 340B reversal

Obesity care · FY2021A: 8bnObesity care · FY2022A: 17bnObesity care · FY2023A: 42bnObesity care · FY2024A: 65bnObesity care · FY2025A: 82bnObesity care · FY2026E: 100bnObesity care · FY2027E: 113bnObesity care · FY2028E: 123bnObesity care · FY2029E: 133bnObesity care · FY2030E: 142bnObesity care · FY2031E: 143bnDiabetes care · FY2021A: 113bnDiabetes care · FY2022A: 140bnDiabetes care · FY2023A: 173bnDiabetes care · FY2024A: 207bnDiabetes care · FY2025A: 207bnDiabetes care · FY2026E: 213bnDiabetes care · FY2027E: 170bnDiabetes care · FY2028E: 161bnDiabetes care · FY2029E: 154bnDiabetes care · FY2030E: 146bnDiabetes care · FY2031E: 132bnBlood and endocrine disorders segment · FY2021A: 19bnBlood and endocrine disorders segment · FY2022A: 21bnBlood and endocrine disorders segment · FY2023A: 17bnBlood and endocrine disorders segment · FY2024A: 19bnBlood and endocrine disorders segment · FY2025A: 20bnBlood and endocrine disorders segment · FY2026E: 22bnBlood and endocrine disorders segment · FY2027E: 24bnBlood and endocrine disorders segment · FY2028E: 25bnBlood and endocrine disorders segment · FY2029E: 26bnBlood and endocrine disorders segment · FY2030E: 27bnBlood and endocrine disorders segment · FY2031E: 28bnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031E0bn100bn200bn300bn400bn141bn177bn232bn290bn309bn335bn307bn309bn313bn315bn303bnForecastObesity careDiabetes careBlood and endocrine disorders segment
FY2027E adjusted salesDKK 307,384M-0.2% on the year; DKK 290,439M before results

Obesity takes over. It reaches 47% of sales by FY2031E, with CagriSema, not yet approved, at DKK 22,000M, as Ozempic fades toward its 2032 US patent expiry.

Source: Novo Nordisk Q3 2026 report (Form 6-K, company announcement No 65/2026, 4 Nov 2026) · Novo Nordisk Form 20-F 2025: patent expiries

7 / 10

7 · Growth

No forward case reaches BUY: value runs from DKK 181 to DKK 293 against the DKK 269.45 price

The Wegovy pill and International growth hold the value up. US price and Ozempic’s patent clock hold it back.

Exhibit 7: Value per share by case

DKK per share; base on WACC 7.0% and terminal growth 1.0%; the marker is the base value, the dashed lines the SELL line, the price and the BUY line

Low · Forward cases: price reset to Wegovy keeps beating: 181Base value · Forward cases: price reset to Wegovy keeps beating: 272Low · DCF: Gordon growth to exit multiple: 272Base value · DCF: Gordon growth to exit multiple: 272Low · Sell-side average target: 297Base value · Sell-side average target: 297Forward cases: price reset to Wegovy keepsbeatingDCF: Gordon growth to exit multipleSell-side average target150200250300350181–293272–291297SELL line: 216Price: 269BUY line: 310

The price sits just below our base. Wegovy keeps beating gives DKK 293; the 10.0x exit multiple gives DKK 291, a cross-check and not a target; the price is 11.6x FY2027E earnings.

Sources: price, stockanalysis.com: NOVO B close, 6 Nov 2026 · stockanalysis.com: analyst consensus

8 / 10

8 · Valuation

What would change the rating from here

HOLD has room on both sides. Only a US price reset moves it to SELL, and no forward case reaches BUY.

If we seeValue per shareRating
Shares at DKK 237 or belowThe base, 15% above the priceBUY
Shares above DKK 340The base, more than 20% below the priceSELL
Wegovy keeps beating through FY2028DKK 293HOLD. BUY needs DKK 310 at this price
US GLP-1 slows in Q4 and 2027DKK 249HOLD. SELL starts below DKK 216
US net prices reset after the list-price cutDKK 181SELL

HOLD. The next test is the full-year report on 3 February 2027, read on the 2027 outlook and on US net price after the list-price cut.

Source: Novo Nordisk Q3 2026 report (Form 6-K, company announcement No 65/2026, 4 Nov 2026) · values from the forward cases and the rating rule

9 / 10

9 · What would change the rating

What we said and what happened: no line to SELL was crossed, and we were wrong on the guide

We said a Q3 Ozempic below DKK 25,800M or a US price reset meant SELL. Ozempic was DKK 29,706M, and the report does not signal a reset.

We said HOLD before results.

The value sat below the DKK 270.20 price. We expected a sales beat, and named two roads to SELL: a US GLP-1 miss or a US price reset.

Value before resultsDKK 246on Q3 adjusted sales of DKK 75,379M
Neither road to SELL opened.

Both Ozempic figures are adjusted, and Q3 has no 340B effect. The outlook still assumes lower US realised prices; it does not say commercial net prices follow list.

Value nowDKK 2721% above the DKK 269.45 price
Where our forecast missed.

Sales beat by far more than we said. The pill passed our DKK 4,600M line, but the franchise, at DKK 25,801M, stayed under the DKK 26,200M beat line. International injectable missed. We said the guide would not rise above 0%; it rose to +2%.

Source: Novo Nordisk Q3 2026 report (Form 6-K, company announcement No 65/2026, 4 Nov 2026) · ProInvestorNews: company-compiled consensus, 3 Nov 2026

10 / 10

10 · What we said and what happened

Sources

Not investment advice. Any rating here is this model's view of value against price at the data cut-off.

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