Is Qualcomm stock a buy after Q4 FY2026 earnings?

SELL: Qualcomm is worth $115.55 against a $165.41 price, with management’s data center target already in the forecast.

Qualcomm · Q4 FY2026 · Published Nov 9, 2026 · Data cut-off: 2026-11-07 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

1 · Cover

SELL: Qualcomm is worth $116 against a $165.41 price, 30% below it

Results lifted the value from $106, and the price is still well above it. We would buy at $96 or below and sell above $128.

SELL
Base value per share $116 up from $106 before results
Price, 6 November close $165.41 4.5% below the results-day close
If handsets hold $124 short of the $149 a HOLD needs
Average analyst target $197 set before results
Handset revenue falls as Apple leaves.

QCT handsets fall from $24,072M in FY2026 to $17,895M in FY2027E as Apple ramps down.

The replacement earns less.

Revenue grows 5% in FY2027E, yet operating income falls from $8,658M to $7,555M.

Cheap only before stock pay.

15.7x FY2026 non-GAAP earnings, which add back $2.81 a share of it. The free cash flow yield is 3.1%.

Source: Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 results release, Form 8-K, 4 November 2026 · stockanalysis.com QCOM daily price history, 6 November close · stockanalysis.com analyst targets, pre-results

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2 · Our view

Q4 beat the guide and consensus: revenue of $10,322M and EPS of $2.17

Automotive carried the quarter. Handsets came in under the guide, and EPS came in a little under our forecast.

Exhibit 1: Revenue by quarter, Q3 FY2026 to Q4 FY2027

USD millions; reported in dark blue, our forecast in grey; the line is the December-quarter guide midpoint

Revenue · Q3 FY2026A: $9,947Revenue · Q4 FY2026A: $10,322Revenue · Q1 FY2027E: $10,956Revenue · Q2 FY2027E: $10,962Revenue · Q3 FY2027E: $11,391Revenue · Q4 FY2027E: $11,955Q3 FY2026AQ4 FY2026AQ1 FY2027EQ2 FY2027EQ3 FY2027EQ4 FY2027E$0$2,500$5,000$7,500$10,000$12,500$14,000$9,947$10,322$10,956$11,955Our forecastQ1 FY2027 guide midpoint: $10,800

Exhibit 2: Q4 FY2026: reported against expectations

The guide, consensus, our forecast before results, and the reported figure

Q4 FY2026A · Company guidanceQ4 FY2026A · ConsensusQ4 FY2026A · Our forecastQ4 FY2026A · Actual
Revenue$M10,10010,15010,19110,322
QCT handsets$M5,2005,2005,137
QCT automotive$M1,6951,990
QTL licensing$M1,3001,3001,304
QCT EBT margin%24.0%24.5%23.8%
Non-GAAP EPS$2.152.162.192.17

The December revenue guide is above our old forecast. Revenue of $10,400M to $11,200M and EPS of $2.15 to $2.35; we now have $10,956M and $2.30.

Source: Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 results release, Form 8-K, 4 November 2026 · Yahoo Finance analyst estimates, before results

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3 · Q4 results

Apple is leaving: QCT handsets fall from $27,793M in FY2025 to $17,895M in FY2027E

Q4 handsets came in under the guide, and management forecasts a further fall into December as Apple ramps down.

Exhibit 3: QCT revenue by stream, Q4 FY2025 to Q4 FY2026

USD millions; handsets, automotive and IoT stacked, totals above; the arrow is the fall in handsets from Q1 to Q3

QCT handsets · Q4 FY2025A: $6,961QCT handsets · Q1 FY2026A: $7,824QCT handsets · Q2 FY2026A: $6,024QCT handsets · Q3 FY2026A: $5,086QCT handsets · Q4 FY2026A: $5,137QCT automotive · Q4 FY2025A: $1,053QCT automotive · Q1 FY2026A: $1,101QCT automotive · Q2 FY2026A: $1,326QCT automotive · Q3 FY2026A: $1,588QCT automotive · Q4 FY2026A: $1,990QCT IoT · Q4 FY2025A: $1,807QCT IoT · Q1 FY2026A: $1,688QCT IoT · Q2 FY2026A: $1,726QCT IoT · Q3 FY2026A: $1,830QCT IoT · Q4 FY2026A: $1,888Q4 FY2025AQ1 FY2026AQ2 FY2026AQ3 FY2026AQ4 FY2026A$0$2,500$5,000$7,500$10,000$12,000$9,821$10,613$9,076$8,504$9,015Handsets, Q1 to Q3: -$2,738QCT handsetsQCT automotiveQCT IoT
Q4 handsets, reported $5,137M guide $5,200M; $7,824M in Q1
Apple, September to December -50% our FY2027E Apple revenue $1,786M

Source: Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 results release, Form 8-K, 4 November 2026 · Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript, 4 November 2026

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4 · Handsets

Automotive, IoT and data center replace Apple, and revenue still grows only 5% in FY2027E

Non-handset growth of 63% matches management and takes revenue from $43,120M to $45,264M.

Exhibit 4: Revenue by business, FY2021A to FY2032E

USD millions; handsets at the base, then automotive, IoT, data center and licensing; totals at the peak, FY2026, FY2027E and the end

QCT handsets · FY2021A: $20,475QCT handsets · FY2022A: $28,815QCT handsets · FY2023A: $22,570QCT handsets · FY2024A: $24,863QCT handsets · FY2025A: $27,793QCT handsets · FY2026A: $24,072QCT handsets · FY2027E: $17,895QCT handsets · FY2028E: $17,537QCT handsets · FY2029E: $18,239QCT handsets · FY2030E: $18,786QCT handsets · FY2031E: $19,349QCT handsets · FY2032E: $19,736QCT automotive · FY2021A: $1,110QCT automotive · FY2022A: $1,509QCT automotive · FY2023A: $1,872QCT automotive · FY2024A: $2,910QCT automotive · FY2025A: $3,957QCT automotive · FY2026A: $6,004QCT automotive · FY2027E: $9,141QCT automotive · FY2028E: $11,426QCT automotive · FY2029E: $13,711QCT automotive · FY2030E: $15,768QCT automotive · FY2031E: $17,660QCT automotive · FY2032E: $19,426QCT IoT · FY2021A: $5,434QCT IoT · FY2022A: $7,353QCT IoT · FY2023A: $5,940QCT IoT · FY2024A: $5,423QCT IoT · FY2025A: $6,617QCT IoT · FY2026A: $7,132QCT IoT · FY2027E: $7,878QCT IoT · FY2028E: $8,666QCT IoT · FY2029E: $9,533QCT IoT · FY2030E: $10,295QCT IoT · FY2031E: $11,016QCT IoT · FY2032E: $11,677Data center and other · FY2021A: $227Data center and other · FY2025A: $335Data center and other · FY2026A: $356Data center and other · FY2027E: $5,000Data center and other · FY2028E: $8,000Data center and other · FY2029E: $11,200Data center and other · FY2030E: $14,000Data center and other · FY2031E: $16,100Data center and other · FY2032E: $17,710QTL licensing · FY2021A: $6,320QTL licensing · FY2022A: $6,358QTL licensing · FY2023A: $5,306QTL licensing · FY2024A: $5,572QTL licensing · FY2025A: $5,582QTL licensing · FY2026A: $5,556QTL licensing · FY2027E: $5,350QTL licensing · FY2028E: $5,190QTL licensing · FY2029E: $5,190QTL licensing · FY2030E: $5,241QTL licensing · FY2031E: $5,294QTL licensing · FY2032E: $5,347FY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031EFY2032E$0$25,000$50,000$80,000$44,200$43,120$45,264$73,896Our forecastQCT handsetsQCT automotiveQCT IoTData center and otherQTL licensing

We raised the forecast to management’s view. FY2027E data center revenue goes to $5,000M from $4,000M, which lifts the value to $116 from $109.

Source: Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 results release, Form 8-K, 4 November 2026 · Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript, 4 November 2026

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5 · What replaces Apple

QCT gross margin fell to 46.1%, under its range; we carry it to 47.6% by Q4 FY2027E

Company non-GAAP gross margin still falls, from 52.4% to 50.4%, as lower-margin data center grows.

Exhibit 5: QCT gross margin by quarter: reported, then our forecast

Segment gross margin, before operating expenses; reported, then our forecast; the line is the bottom of the range management calls normal

QCT gross margin (segment) · Q1 FY2026A: 48.7%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q2 FY2026A: 48.2%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q3 FY2026A: 47.6%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q4 FY2026A: 46.1%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q1 FY2027E: 46.4%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q2 FY2027E: 46.8%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q3 FY2027E: 47.2%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q4 FY2027E: 47.6%44.0%47.5%50.0%52.0%Q4 FY2025AQ1 FY2026AQ2 FY2026AQ3 FY2026AQ4 FY2026AQ1 FY2027EQ2 FY2027EQ3 FY2027EQ4 FY2027E50.0%47.6%46.1%47.6%Our forecastBottom of the historical range: 48%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q4 FY2025A: 50.0%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q1 FY2026A: 48.7%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q2 FY2026A: 48.2%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q3 FY2026A: 47.6%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q4 FY2026A: 46.1%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q1 FY2027E: 46.4%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q2 FY2027E: 46.8%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q3 FY2027E: 47.2%QCT gross margin (segment) · Q4 FY2027E: 47.6%
QCT gross margin, Q4 46.1% our forecast 47.5%; 50.0% a year earlier
QCT EBT margin, Q4 23.8% after operating expenses; guided 23% to 25%, December 20% to 22%

Source: Qualcomm FY2026 Form 10-K, segment information · Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript, 4 November 2026

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6 · Margins

FY2026 GAAP EPS of $12.70 carries a one-off tax benefit; non-GAAP leaves out stock pay

The tax benefit lifts GAAP this year and does not recur. Stock pay recurs every year, and non-GAAP leaves it out.

Exhibit 6: FY2026 diluted EPS, GAAP to non-GAAP

USD per share, as Qualcomm reconciles it; other items net the valuation-allowance tax benefit against acquisition charges

FY2026A · Diluted EPS (GAAP): $12.70FY2026A · Less QSI gains: -$0.59FY2026A · Add back stock pay: $2.81FY2026A · Other items: -$4.37FY2026A · Non-GAAP EPS: $10.54$0.00$5.00$10.00$16.00Diluted EPS (GAAP)Less QSI gainsAdd back stock payOther itemsNon-GAAP EPS$12.70-$0.59$2.81-$4.37$10.54

Cash no longer covers the payout: FY2026 free cash flow of $8,651M, down from $12,820M, against $11,671M returned to holders.

Source: Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 results release, Form 8-K, 4 November 2026

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7 · Earnings quality

The base DCF is worth $115.55 against a $165.41 price; the forward cases run from $84.25 to $124.04

Every forward case sits below the $149 a HOLD needs at this price.

Exhibit 7: Value per share by case against the price

USD per share; base case on WACC 11.6% and terminal growth 3.0%; the marks are the base value and the data-center-slips case

Low · DCF: Gordon growth to exit multiple: $116Point value · DCF: Gordon growth to exit multiple: $116Low · Forward cases: handsets roll to hold: $104Point value · Forward cases: handsets roll to hold: $116Low · Structural downside: data center slips: $84Point value · Structural downside: data center slips: $84DCF: Gordon growth to exit multipleForward cases: handsets roll to holdStructural downside: data center slips$60$75$100$125$150$180$116–$148$104–$124$84–$116Price: $165HOLD needs: $149

Stock pay is a cost here. FY2027E unlevered free cash flow is $5,547M; discounted FY2027E to FY2032E cash flow is $41,393M, and the exit-multiple cross-check gives $148.

Source: stockanalysis.com QCOM daily price history, 6 November close · Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 results release, Form 8-K, 4 November 2026

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8 · Valuation

Net debt comes off enterprise value; the QSI portfolio adds back a little

Purchase obligations and leases are paid through costs the cash flows already carry, so they are not deducted twice.

Exhibit 8: Enterprise value to equity value (USD millions)

USD millions, Gordon growth, base case; the axis is broken below enterprise value so the bridge steps can be read

Enterprise value (Gordon growth): $131,313Enterprise value (Gordon growth): $131,313Cash and securities less debt at FY2026 year end: -$7,431Strategic investments (QSI portfolio, at book): $1,379Equity value (Gordon growth): $125,261Equity value (Gordon growth): $125,261Enterprise value (Gordon growth)Cash and securities less debt atFY2026 year endStrategic investments (QSIportfolio, at book)Equity value (Gordon growth)$131,313-$7,431$1,379$125,261

The bridge is small next to the cash flows. Debt exceeded cash and securities by $7,431M at FY2026 year end, as reported; the gap to the price is in the operating forecast.

Source: Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 results release, Form 8-K, 4 November 2026 · Qualcomm FY2025 Form 10-K, capital requirements and notes

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9 · Equity bridge

What would change the rating from here

Price moves the rating. None of the forward cases does at this price.

If we see Value per share Rating
Shares at $96 or below The base, 20% above the price BUY
Shares above $128 The base, more than 10% below the price SELL, where the shares are now
Handsets hold: Android recovers faster $124 SELL. HOLD needs $149 at this price
Handsets roll: memory and Apple take more $104 SELL
Data center slips: the ramp stalls $84 SELL

SELL. The next test is the December quarter: data center revenue above the $650M management expects, and the QCT EBT margin against the 20% to 22% guide.

Source: Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript, 4 November 2026 · values from the forward cases and the rating rule

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10 · What would change the rating

If data center slips, value falls to $84.25: first revenue starts this quarter and the plan is unproven

Our base reaches $11,200M of data center revenue in FY2029E, short of the $15,000M target, and the rating is SELL even so.

Exhibit 9: Data center and other revenue, FY2025A to FY2029E

USD millions; our base case; the line is the FY2029 target management reiterated

Data center and other · FY2025A: $335Data center and other · FY2026A: $356Data center and other · FY2027E: $5,000Data center and other · FY2028E: $8,000Data center and other · FY2029E: $11,200$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$18,000FY2025AFY2026AFY2027EFY2028EFY2029E$5,000$11,200Our forecastManagement's FY2029 target: $15,000
Value per share if data center slips $84 the structural downside, a bound rather than a forecast

The trigger is a cut to the FY2027 data center outlook, or a delay in first shipments to the two hyperscaler programs.

Source: Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript, 4 November 2026

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11 · The structural downside

What we said and what happened: SELL stood, and the value rose to $116

We said SELL at $162.08. The shares closed at $173.19 on the day of results, $156.75 the next day and $165.41 on 6 November.

We said SELL before results.

The value then sat well below the price, on Apple leaving and a lower-margin replacement.

Value before results $106 with data center at $4,000M in FY2027E
Our forecast missed in three places.

Automotive was $1,990M against our $1,695M. QCT gross margin was 46.1% against 47.5%. Free cash flow was $8,651M against $9,660M.

Value on reported results $109 the misses roughly offset
We raised the forecast to management’s view.

FY2027E data center revenue goes to $5,000M, management’s reiterated target.

Value now $116 still under the $149 a HOLD needs

Source: Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 results release, Form 8-K, 4 November 2026 · Qualcomm Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript, 4 November 2026

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12 · What we said and what happened

Sources

Not investment advice. Any rating here is this model's view of value against price at the data cut-off.

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