Buy, hold or sell Micron at $690.00 going into the Q1 FY2027 print in December?

BUY into the print: the base case is worth $936.46, 35.7% above the price and past the 20.0% a BUY needs, on an industry path the cells now derive; the call is fragile to industry capacity.

Micron · FY2026 · Published Nov 9, 2026 · Data cut-off: 2026-11-09 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

1 · Cover

BUY into the print: Micron is worth $936.46, 36% above the $690.00 price, past the BUY bar

We would buy at $780.38 or below and sell above $1,040.51. Industry capacity, not the December quarter, is what could take the call away.

BUY
Base value per share $936.46 Gordon growth, base case
Price, 6 November close $690.00 after the 5 November memory sell-off
Average analyst target $1,562 above even our pricing-extends world
P/E on FY2027E model EPS 3.8x the market is pricing the turn
The quarter is mostly priced.

Micron has beaten its guide every quarter; a beat on the quarter alone moves value by tens of dollars, not hundreds.

Margin is at a peak.

Gross margin was 86.8% in Q4. We have price per bit changing by -32% in FY2029E as new clean rooms arrive.

The price prices a deeper fall.

Model EPS falls from $183 in FY2027E to $134 by FY2030E; at 3.8x the market expects worse.

The BUY is fragile to supply. Two more points of industry wafer growth a year from FY2028E would make it a SELL; a weak quarter with a weak guide would too.

Source: Micron Technology Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (2026-09-30) — fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2026 results · stockanalysis.com — MU daily price history (close 6 November 2026) · stockanalysis.com — MU analyst forecast (S&P Global, 49 analysts)

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2 · Our view

Q1 is guided to $61,500M; we forecast $63,000M, above the $61,720M consensus

Micron beat its guide midpoint in every FY2026 quarter, by 8% in Q4 and 28% in Q2.

Exhibit 1: Revenue guidance midpoint against the reported figure, Q1 FY2026 to Q1 FY2027 (USD millions)

USD millions; Q1 FY2027 shows our forecast, not yet reported; the line is the Q1 revenue that would support pricing extending

Guidance midpoint · Q1 FY26: $12,500Guidance midpoint · Q2 FY26: $18,700Guidance midpoint · Q3 FY26: $33,500Guidance midpoint · Q4 FY26: $50,000Guidance midpoint · Q1 FY27: $61,500Reported, then our Q1 forecast · Q1 FY26: $13,643Reported, then our Q1 forecast · Q2 FY26: $23,860Reported, then our Q1 forecast · Q3 FY26: $41,456Reported, then our Q1 forecast · Q4 FY26: $54,229Reported, then our Q1 forecast · Q1 FY27: $63,000Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27$0$25,000$50,000$80,000$61,500$63,000Not yet reportedPricing-extends line: $64,000Guidance midpointReported, then our Q1 forecast

The guided range is $60,000M to $63,000M. EPS is guided to $38.15; consensus has $38.20 and we have $39.22.

Source: Micron Technology Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (2026-09-30) — fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2026 results · Arincen — Micron Technology earnings: Q1 FY2027 date and estimates

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3 · The quarter

Revenue is bits times price, and in FY2026 price did the work

FY2026 revenue rose 256% to $133,188M; FY2023, the last downturn, ended at $15,540M and a -9% gross margin.

Exhibit 2: Revenue by quarter, FY2026 to FY2027 (USD millions)

USD millions; reported in dark blue, forecast in grey; the arrow is our $8,771M Q1 step on 5% more bits and 11% higher price per bit

Revenue · Q1 FY26: $13,643Revenue · Q2 FY26: $23,860Revenue · Q3 FY26: $41,456Revenue · Q4 FY26: $54,229Revenue · Q1 FY27: $63,000Revenue · Q2 FY27E: $69,451Revenue · Q3 FY27E: $75,118Revenue · Q4 FY27E: $80,452Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27Q2 FY27EQ3 FY27EQ4 FY27E$0$25,000$50,000$80,000$13,643$54,229$63,000$80,452Not yet reported, then our forecastOur Q1 step: $8,771
Gross margin, FY2026 80.7% GAAP; Q4 was higher still
Our Q1 FY2027 gross margin 86.5% against a 85% floor set before the print

Source: Micron Technology Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (2026-09-30) — fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2026 results · Micron Technology Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 2026-09-03, filed 2026-10-09) — Item 7, revenue drivers, strategic customer agreements and capital spending · The Motley Fool — Micron (MU) Q4 2026 earnings call transcript (call of 30 September 2026)

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4 · Bits times price

Price per bit eases in FY2028 and falls hard from FY2029, and revenue falls with it

Bits grow every year in every unit; price turns down in FY2028 and falls hardest as new clean rooms arrive.

Exhibit 3: Revenue by business unit, FY2024A to FY2031E (USD millions)

USD millions; Cloud Memory, Core Data Center, Mobile and Client, Automotive and Embedded; totals at the last two actuals, the peak and the end

Cloud Memory (CMBU) · FY2024A: $3,792Cloud Memory (CMBU) · FY2025A: $13,524Cloud Memory (CMBU) · FY2026A: $43,085Cloud Memory (CMBU) · FY2027E: $89,287Cloud Memory (CMBU) · FY2028E: $103,213Cloud Memory (CMBU) · FY2029E: $90,619Cloud Memory (CMBU) · FY2030E: $75,756Cloud Memory (CMBU) · FY2031E: $79,380Core Data Center (CDBU) · FY2024A: $4,984Core Data Center (CDBU) · FY2025A: $7,229Core Data Center (CDBU) · FY2026A: $37,592Core Data Center (CDBU) · FY2027E: $97,927Core Data Center (CDBU) · FY2028E: $111,454Core Data Center (CDBU) · FY2029E: $96,337Core Data Center (CDBU) · FY2030E: $79,883Core Data Center (CDBU) · FY2031E: $83,013Mobile and Client (MCBU) · FY2024A: $11,667Mobile and Client (MCBU) · FY2025A: $11,859Mobile and Client (MCBU) · FY2026A: $36,601Mobile and Client (MCBU) · FY2027E: $66,245Mobile and Client (MCBU) · FY2028E: $68,892Mobile and Client (MCBU) · FY2029E: $54,388Mobile and Client (MCBU) · FY2030E: $42,522Mobile and Client (MCBU) · FY2031E: $41,610Automotive and Embedded (AEBU) · FY2024A: $4,631Automotive and Embedded (AEBU) · FY2025A: $4,753Automotive and Embedded (AEBU) · FY2026A: $15,886Automotive and Embedded (AEBU) · FY2027E: $34,563Automotive and Embedded (AEBU) · FY2028E: $37,178Automotive and Embedded (AEBU) · FY2029E: $30,363Automotive and Embedded (AEBU) · FY2030E: $24,149Automotive and Embedded (AEBU) · FY2031E: $24,050FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031E$0$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$37,378$133,188$320,737$228,052Our forecastCloud Memory (CMBU)Core Data Center (CDBU)Mobile and Client (MCBU)Automotive and Embedded (AEBU)

Strategic customer agreements put a floor under part of the cycle. They carry $134,000M of obligations; FY2031E gross margin is 67%, against 45% at the FY2022 peak.

Source: Micron Technology Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 2026-09-03, filed 2026-10-09) — Consolidated Statements of Operations · Micron Technology Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 2026-09-03, filed 2026-10-09) — Notes 9, 10, 15 and 16: debt maturities, commitments, government incentives and remaining performance obligations

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5 · Business units

AI keeps DRAM bit demand growing about 24% in FY2028E, slowing to 15% by FY2031E

HBM rises from 9% of DRAM bits in 2026 to 17% by FY2031E; phones and PCs grow on content, not units.

Exhibit 4: DRAM bit demand by end market, 2026 to 2031E (index, 2026 = 100)

Index, calendar 2026 = 100; built by end market: AI from TrendForce to 2028, servers from Micron, phones and PCs from IDC, the rest our judgment

HBM for AI · 2026: 9HBM for AI · 2027E: 14HBM for AI · 2028E: 21HBM for AI · 2029E: 27HBM for AI · 2030E: 33HBM for AI · 2031E: 40Server modules · 2026: 42Server modules · 2027E: 55Server modules · 2028E: 70Server modules · 2029E: 84Server modules · 2030E: 98Server modules · 2031E: 113Smartphones · 2026: 26Smartphones · 2027E: 29Smartphones · 2028E: 33Smartphones · 2029E: 37Smartphones · 2030E: 41Smartphones · 2031E: 45PCs · 2026: 12PCs · 2027E: 13PCs · 2028E: 15PCs · 2029E: 17PCs · 2030E: 18PCs · 2031E: 21Other · 2026: 11Other · 2027E: 12Other · 2028E: 14Other · 2029E: 15Other · 2030E: 17Other · 2031E: 1920262027E2028E2029E2030E2031E0100200300100152238Our forecastHBM for AIServer modulesSmartphonesPCsOther

Source: TrendForce — Tight DRAM supply gives suppliers greater pricing power in HBM (2 June 2026) · TrendForce — CSP capex projected to exceed US$1.5 trillion in 2027 (14 October 2026) · IDC — Higher ASPs, lower unit volumes: how the memory crisis is reshaping the PC and smartphone markets (March 2026) · Micron — Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call prepared remarks (30 September 2026)

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6 · Industry demand

Planned fabs put DRAM supply ahead of demand from FY2028E, by 5.1 points in FY2029E

Industry wafer capacity goes from 2,180 to 3,670 thousand a month; history prices each point of oversupply at -7.3 points of price.

Exhibit 5: DRAM bit supply growth against demand growth, 2027E to 2031E

Calendar years; bit demand growth, then bit supply growth; the arrow is the FY2029E oversupply, in points

Bit demand growth · 2027E: 23%Bit demand growth · 2028E: 24%Bit demand growth · 2029E: 18%Bit demand growth · 2030E: 16%Bit demand growth · 2031E: 15%Bit supply growth · 2027E: 21%Bit supply growth · 2028E: 26%Bit supply growth · 2029E: 23%Bit supply growth · 2030E: 21%Bit supply growth · 2031E: 15%2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E0%10%20%30%23%24%18%15%21%26%23%15%Oversupply: 5.1 pointsBit demand growthBit supply growth
DRAM price per bit, FY2029E -43% from the calibrated response
Micron price per bit, FY2030E -32% after the agreements' cushion
Micron bit growth, FY2028E 25% ID1, Tongluo, ID2 and Hiroshima

Source: XenoSpectrum (citing SemiAnalysis) — CXMT DRAM wafer input to exceed 90% of Micron's by end of 2026 (16 July 2026) · Micron — Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call prepared remarks (30 September 2026) · TrendForce — Historically low 2023 DRAM demand bit growth at only 8.3% (3 August 2022) · Micron Technology Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 2020-09-03, filed 2020-10-19) — average selling price table

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7 · Supply against demand

Contracts back 12% of FY2027E revenue at floor prices; from FY2028E most of the forecast is the industry model

26 take-or-pay agreements cover about 35% of revenue to 2030, with floors at 47% of our FY2029E price.

Exhibit 6: Forecast revenue by what backs it: contract, guidance or the model alone (USD millions)

USD millions; contracted at floor prices, contracted volume above the floor at our price, Q1 guidance outside the agreements, and the model alone

Contracted at floor prices · 2027E: $33,500Contracted at floor prices · 2028E: $33,500Contracted at floor prices · 2029E: $33,500Contracted at floor prices · 2030E: $26,800Contracted at floor prices · 2031E: $6,700Contracted volume above the floor · 2027E: $67,308Contracted volume above the floor · 2028E: $78,758Contracted volume above the floor · 2029E: $61,598Contracted volume above the floor · 2030E: $51,009Contracted volume above the floor · 2031E: $16,105Guided, not contracted · 2027E: $39,975Model only · 2027E: $147,239Model only · 2028E: $208,479Model only · 2029E: $176,610Model only · 2030E: $144,502Model only · 2031E: $205,2472027E2028E2029E2030E2031E$0$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$288,021$320,737$271,707$222,310$228,052Contracted at floor pricesContracted volume above the floorGuided, not contractedModel only
Average revenue beat on the guide 10% last eight quarters; 0 misses, smallest 0.1%
Revenue on the model alone, FY2029E 65% the low-confidence tier

Source: Micron Technology Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 2026-09-03, filed 2026-10-09) — Notes 9, 10, 15 and 16: debt maturities, commitments, government incentives and remaining performance obligations · Micron — Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call prepared remarks (30 September 2026)

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8 · Contracts against the forecast

Earnings convert to cash, and GAAP and non-GAAP are close

FY2026 GAAP net income of $84,969M becomes $86,758M non-GAAP; the adjustments are small next to the earnings.

Exhibit 7: FY2026 GAAP net income to non-GAAP net income (USD millions)

USD millions; the axis is broken so the adjustments can be read

FY2026A · Net income: $84,969FY2026A · Net income: $84,969FY2026A · Stock-based compensation: $1,282FY2026A · Patent charge: $500FY2026A · Debt prepayment: $511FY2026A · Other adjustments: $50FY2026A · Tax effects: -$554FY2026A · Net income (non-GAAP): $86,758FY2026A · Net income (non-GAAP): $86,758Net incomeStock-basedcompensationPatent chargeDebtprepaymentOtheradjustmentsTax effectsNet income(non-GAAP)$84,969$1,282$500$511$50-$554$86,758
Operating cash flow, FY2026 $89,675M adjusted free cash flow $62,308M
Customer deposits, 3 September $12,895M repayable 2029 to 2031; deducted in the bridge

Net capital spending was $27,367M in FY2026; we take $55,000M in FY2027E.

Source: Micron Technology Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (2026-09-30) — fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2026 results · Micron Technology Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 2026-09-03, filed 2026-10-09) — Notes 9, 10, 15 and 16: debt maturities, commitments, government incentives and remaining performance obligations · Micron Technology Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 2026-09-03, filed 2026-10-09) — Item 7, revenue drivers, strategic customer agreements and capital spending

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9 · Earnings quality

What the shares are worth, and how far apart the worlds are

10 · What the shares are worth

The base DCF is worth $936.46 against a $690.00 price; the worlds run from $162.45 to $1,468.65

Pricing extending clears the BUY bar; pricing peaking or a downturn falls below the SELL line.

Exhibit 8: Value per share by case against the price (USD)

USD per share; base on WACC 15.4% and terminal growth 3.0%; the markers are the base value and the downturn

Low · DCF: Gordon growth to exit multiple: $936Point value · DCF: Gordon growth to exit multiple: $936Low · The print: pricing peaks to pricing extends: $510Point value · The print: pricing peaks to pricing extends: $936Low · Structural downside: downturn to peaks: $162Point value · Structural downside: downturn to peaks: $162DCF: Gordon growth to exit multipleThe print: pricing peaks to pricing extendsStructural downside: downturn to peaks$0$500$1,000$1,600$936–$981$510–$1,469$162–$510Price: $690BUY needs: $828SELL below: $621

The exit multiple gives $981.29. Our FY2027E revenue of $288,021M is above the street's $275,890M; the gap that matters opens in FY2029E.

Source: stockanalysis.com — MU daily price history (close 6 November 2026) · stockanalysis.com — MU analyst forecast (S&P Global, 49 analysts)

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11 · Valuation

Cash and investments add to value; debt and customer deposits come off

Cash and marketable investments of $73,453M at 3 September; the deposits are repayable, so they count against equity.

Exhibit 9: Enterprise value to equity value (USD millions)

USD millions, Gordon growth, base case; the axis is broken below enterprise value so the bridge steps can be read

Enterprise value (Gordon growth): $1,021,552Enterprise value (Gordon growth): $1,021,552Cash and marketable investments: $73,453Less debt and finance leases: -$5,179Less customer deposits (repayable 2029 to 2031): -$12,895Equity value (Gordon growth): $1,076,931Equity value (Gordon growth): $1,076,931Enterprise value (Gordongrowth)Cash and marketableinvestmentsLess debt and financeleasesLess customer deposits(repayable 2029 to 2031)Equity value (Gordongrowth)$1,021,552$73,453-$5,179-$12,895$1,076,931

The bridge is small next to the cycle. Enterprise value is $1,021,552M; debt and finance leases are only $5,179M. It uses the 3 September balance sheet because the cash flows start with FY2027.

Source: Micron Technology Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 2026-09-03, filed 2026-10-09) — Notes 9, 10, 15 and 16: debt maturities, commitments, government incentives and remaining performance obligations · Micron Technology Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 2026-09-03, filed 2026-10-09) — Consolidated Statements of Operations

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12 · Equity bridge

What the print would change: the BUY goes only if the quarter and the guide both point to a peak

Re-run the model on the print and the guide; the recomputed value against the price sets the rating.

If the print shows Value per share Rating
Q1 at or above $64,000M and a Q2 guide at or above $72,000M $1,468.65 BUY
Anything in between: a beat with an in-line guide, a margin miss, a capex raise About the base case; BUY needs $828.00 BUY
Q1 at or below $60,500M and a Q2 guide at or below $65,000M $510.06 SELL
Slower AI demand meets industry capacity brought forward $162.45 SELL

BUY. One line alone does not move the call; the quarter and the Q2 guide have to agree to take it to SELL.

Source: Micron Technology Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (2026-09-30) — fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2026 results · Arincen — Micron Technology earnings: Q1 FY2027 date and estimates

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13 · What the print would change

A memory downturn takes value to $162.45: slower AI demand meeting capacity brought forward

Demand is still ahead of supply; new industry clean rooms from late 2028 are what would end it.

Exhibit 10: Gross margin by fiscal year, FY2022A to FY2031E

GAAP; the base case from FY2027E

Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2023A: -9%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2024A: 22%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2025A: 40%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2026A: 81%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2027E: 87%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2028E: 85%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2029E: 77%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2030E: 68%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2031E: 67%-20%0%25%50%75%100%FY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031E45%-9%81%87%67%Our forecastGross margin (GAAP) · FY2022A: 45%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2023A: -9%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2024A: 22%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2025A: 40%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2026A: 81%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2027E: 87%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2028E: 85%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2029E: 77%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2030E: 68%Gross margin (GAAP) · FY2031E: 67%
Gross margin, FY2030E, base case 68% the low point of the forecast

The trigger is supply arriving as demand slows. FY2023 shows the speed: revenue halved and gross margin went negative.

Source: The Motley Fool — Micron (MU) Q4 2026 earnings call transcript (call of 30 September 2026) · Micron Technology Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 2024-08-29, filed 2024-10-04) — Consolidated Statements of Operations and Note revenue by technology · Micron Technology Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 2026-09-03, filed 2026-10-09) — Item 7, revenue drivers, strategic customer agreements and capital spending

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14 · The structural downside

The ask: buy now, sized for the industry risk, and sell only if the quarter and the guide both signal the peak

Four numbers decide the rating on the night; each was set before the print.

Buying is right at this price.

We would sell only if the recomputed value fell below the SELL line.

SELL line on value $621.00 set by the rating rule
The Q2 guide is the number to watch.

It decides whether a Q1 beat or miss becomes a new world.

Our Q2 revenue $69,451M the bar the guide is set against
Capital allocation does not move it.

Buybacks under the $35,160M authorization start in December; below value they add a little per share.

Source: Micron Technology Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (2026-09-30) — fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2026 results · Micron Technology Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 2026-09-03, filed 2026-10-09) — Consolidated Statements of Operations

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15 · The ask

Sources

Not investment advice. Any rating here is this model's view of value against price at the data cut-off.

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