Is Airbnb stock a buy after Q3 2026 earnings?

HOLD: Airbnb is worth $183.14, below the $189.99 price.

Airbnb · Q3 2026 · Published Nov 9, 2026 · Data cut-off: 2026-11-06 · By DeepCell AI · Sources

1 · Cover

HOLD: Airbnb is worth $183.14, 4% below the $189.99 price

The shares closed 12% above the $170.13 close before results, which puts the price above our value. We would buy at $159 or below and sell at $229 or above.

HOLD
Base value per share$183.14$183.56 before results
Price, 6 November close$189.99up 12% from $170.13 before results
Value if the nights beat carries$201.40short of the $218.49 a BUY needs
Average analyst target$184.18set before results
Nights still have to prove 2027.

Growth was 16%, or about 13% without Reserve Now, Pay Later, whose lift peaked in Q3. Airbnb guides Q4 to at least low double digits and gave no figure for 2027.

Part of the margin beat was timing.

The 51.5% margin topped our 49.9%, helped by marketing moved into Q4. Management is keeping room to invest, and we carry 28.1% for Q4.

Stock compensation is a real cost.

It was $462M in Q3. Charged as a cost, the FY2027E free cash flow yield is 3.9%, not 5.7%.

Source: Airbnb Q3 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (5 Nov 2026) · Airbnb Q3 2026 earnings call, on Webull (5 Nov 2026) (third-party transcript) · stockanalysis.com, ABNB price history (6 November 2026 close) · stockanalysis.com, ABNB analyst forecast, set before results

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2 · Our view

Revenue of $4,869M beat the $4,770M top of the guide

Revenue and EPS beat the street, and nights and margin beat our forecast. ADR of $178.83 fell short of our $179.85.

Exhibit 1: Revenue by quarter, reported then our forecast

USD millions; the lighter bar is our Q4 forecast, the line the top of the Q3 guide

Revenue · Q1 2025A: $2,272MRevenue · Q2 2025A: $3,096MRevenue · Q3 2025A: $4,095MRevenue · Q4 2025A: $2,778MRevenue · Q1 2026A: $2,678MRevenue · Q2 2026A: $3,608MRevenue · Q3 2026: $4,869MRevenue · Q4 2026E: $3,250MQ12025AQ22025AQ32025AQ42025AQ12026AQ22026AQ3 2026Q42026E$0M$2,000M$4,000M$6,000M$4,095M$3,608M$4,869M$3,250MNot yet reportedQ3 guide, top: $4,770M

Exhibit 2: Q3 2026: reported against expectations

The guide midpoint, consensus, our forecast before results, and the reported figure

USD millions except EPS and nights growth
Q3 2026 · Airbnb guidanceQ3 2026 · Street consensusQ3 2026 · Our forecastQ3 2026 · Actual
Revenue$M4,730.04,750.04,772.74,869.0
Adjusted EBITDA (company definition)$M2,381.62,509.0
Diluted earnings per share$2.862.753.16
Nights and seats booked, growth year on year%11.0%16.0%

Costs and tax did the rest. Operating income of $2,021M beat our $1,871M, and tax of $283M against our $380M lifted net income to $1,890M.

Source: Airbnb Q3 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (5 Nov 2026) · Earnings Whispers, ABNB Q3 2026 consensus EPS and revenue estimate

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3 · Q3 results

Nights grew 16%, about 13% without Reserve Now, Pay Later

Both figures clear the 13% beat line. Management says Q3 was the peak for that lift, and it falls in Q4 as cancellations arrive.

Exhibit 3: Nights and seats booked growth by quarter

Year on year, reported; the lines are the beat and miss lines we set before results, the arrow the step from Q2

Nights and seats booked growth by quarter · Q2 2025A: 7.0%Nights and seats booked growth by quarter · Q3 2025A: 9.0%Nights and seats booked growth by quarter · Q4 2025A: 10.0%Nights and seats booked growth by quarter · Q1 2026A: 9.2%Nights and seats booked growth by quarter · Q2 2026A: 10.3%Nights and seats booked growth by quarter · Q3 2026: 16.0%Q1 2025AQ2 2025AQ3 2025AQ4 2025AQ1 2026AQ2 2026AQ3 20260%5%10%15%20%7.0%10.3%16.0%Beat line: 13%Miss line: 8%Step from Q2: +5.7%Nights and seats booked growth by quarter · Q1 2025A: 8.0%Nights and seats booked growth by quarter · Q2 2025A: 7.0%Nights and seats booked growth by quarter · Q3 2025A: 9.0%Nights and seats booked growth by quarter · Q4 2025A: 10.0%Nights and seats booked growth by quarter · Q1 2026A: 9.2%Nights and seats booked growth by quarter · Q2 2026A: 10.3%Nights and seats booked growth by quarter · Q3 2026: 16.0%
Q3 nights growth without the lift13%per the call; reported 16%
ADR in Q3$178.83up 4.4%, against our 5.0%

We carry 10% for Q4 and 9% for FY2027E. Airbnb guides Q4 to at least low double digits and named no 2027 figure, so later years stand. The beat case carries 11.5%.

Source: Airbnb Q3 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (5 Nov 2026) · Airbnb Q3 2026 earnings call, on Webull (5 Nov 2026) (third-party transcript)

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4 · Nights

Latin America and Asia Pacific grow fastest; EMEA overtakes North America by FY2029E

Exhibit 4: Revenue by region of listing (FY2021A–FY2031E)

USD billions, FY2021A to FY2031E; North America, EMEA, Latin America and Asia Pacific from the bottom; the shaded years are our forecast

North America revenue (by listing location) · FY2021A: $3BNorth America revenue (by listing location) · FY2022A: $4BNorth America revenue (by listing location) · FY2023A: $5BNorth America revenue (by listing location) · FY2024A: $5BNorth America revenue (by listing location) · FY2025A: $5BNorth America revenue (by listing location) · FY2026E: $6BNorth America revenue (by listing location) · FY2027E: $7BNorth America revenue (by listing location) · FY2028E: $7BNorth America revenue (by listing location) · FY2029E: $8BNorth America revenue (by listing location) · FY2030E: $8BNorth America revenue (by listing location) · FY2031E: $9BEurope, the Middle East and Africa revenue (by listing location) · FY2021A: $2BEurope, the Middle East and Africa revenue (by listing location) · FY2022A: $3BEurope, the Middle East and Africa revenue (by listing location) · FY2023A: $4BEurope, the Middle East and Africa revenue (by listing location) · FY2024A: $4BEurope, the Middle East and Africa revenue (by listing location) · FY2025A: $5BEurope, the Middle East and Africa revenue (by listing location) · FY2026E: $6BEurope, the Middle East and Africa revenue (by listing location) · FY2027E: $6BEurope, the Middle East and Africa revenue (by listing location) · FY2028E: $7BEurope, the Middle East and Africa revenue (by listing location) · FY2029E: $8BEurope, the Middle East and Africa revenue (by listing location) · FY2030E: $9BEurope, the Middle East and Africa revenue (by listing location) · FY2031E: $9BLatin America revenue (by listing location) · FY2021A: $0BLatin America revenue (by listing location) · FY2022A: $1BLatin America revenue (by listing location) · FY2023A: $1BLatin America revenue (by listing location) · FY2024A: $1BLatin America revenue (by listing location) · FY2025A: $1BLatin America revenue (by listing location) · FY2026E: $1BLatin America revenue (by listing location) · FY2027E: $2BLatin America revenue (by listing location) · FY2028E: $2BLatin America revenue (by listing location) · FY2029E: $2BLatin America revenue (by listing location) · FY2030E: $3BLatin America revenue (by listing location) · FY2031E: $3BAsia Pacific revenue (by listing location) · FY2021A: $0BAsia Pacific revenue (by listing location) · FY2022A: $1BAsia Pacific revenue (by listing location) · FY2023A: $1BAsia Pacific revenue (by listing location) · FY2024A: $1BAsia Pacific revenue (by listing location) · FY2025A: $1BAsia Pacific revenue (by listing location) · FY2026E: $1BAsia Pacific revenue (by listing location) · FY2027E: $2BAsia Pacific revenue (by listing location) · FY2028E: $2BAsia Pacific revenue (by listing location) · FY2029E: $2BAsia Pacific revenue (by listing location) · FY2030E: $2BAsia Pacific revenue (by listing location) · FY2031E: $3BFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031E$0B$5B$10B$15B$20B$25B$6B$12B$24BForecastNorth America revenue (by listing location)Europe, the Middle East and Africa revenue (by listing location)Latin America revenue (by listing location)Asia Pacific revenue (by listing location)

Latin America grew 20% in FY2025, North America 4%. In Q3 nights again grew fastest in Latin America and Asia Pacific and slowest in North America, which still reached low double digits.

Source: Airbnb Form 10-K for FY2025, key business metrics and revenue by listing location · Airbnb Q3 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (5 Nov 2026)

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5 · Regions

Q3 margin was 51.5%, above our 49.9% and 50.1% a year ago, helped by marketing moved into Q4

Exhibit 5: Adjusted EBITDA margin by quarter

Company definition; the lighter bar is our Q4 forecast, the line the margin trigger we set before results

Adjusted EBITDA margin by quarter · Q3 2025A: 50.1%Adjusted EBITDA margin by quarter · Q4 2025A: 28.3%Adjusted EBITDA margin by quarter · Q1 2026A: 19.4%Adjusted EBITDA margin by quarter · Q2 2026A: 35.0%Adjusted EBITDA margin by quarter · Q3 2026: 51.5%Adjusted EBITDA margin by quarter · Q4 2026E: 28.1%Q3 2025AQ4 2025AQ1 2026AQ2 2026AQ3 2026Q4 2026E0%20%40%60%50.1%51.5%28.1%Not yet reportedMargin trigger: 48%

Airbnb now expects about 36% for the year, and we carry 36.1%. Q4 gives some back: we carry 28.1% against 28.3%. Spending on the new businesses is still not sized, and sales and marketing ran at 15.7% of revenue against our 17.0%.

Source: Airbnb Q3 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (5 Nov 2026) · Airbnb Q3 2026 earnings call, on Webull (5 Nov 2026) (third-party transcript)

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6 · Margin

Stock compensation, 13.0% of FY2025 revenue, is the gap between Airbnb’s cash and its earnings

Exhibit 6: FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA to GAAP operating income

USD millions; stock-based compensation is the large step down

FY2025A · Adjusted EBITDA (company definition): $4,297MFY2025A · Less stock-based compensation: -$1,592MFY2025A · Less depreciation and amortization: -$91MFY2025A · Less other adjustments: -$70MFY2025A · Income from operations: $2,544MAdjusted EBITDA (companydefinition)Less stock-basedcompensationLess depreciation andamortizationLess other adjustmentsIncome from operations$4,297M-$1,592M-$91M-$70M$2,544M

$4,297M of Adjusted EBITDA is $2,544M of operating income. Our DCF charges it as a cost, so the FY2027E cash yield at this price is 3.9%, not 5.7%. Q3 stock compensation was $462M, below our $492M.

Source: Airbnb Form 10-K for FY2025, key business metrics and revenue by listing location · Airbnb Q3 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (5 Nov 2026)

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7 · Earnings quality

Repurchases slowed to $700M in Q3, and Airbnb added a $12,000M authorization

Exhibit 7: Free cash flow, repurchases and stock compensation (FY2021A–FY2031E)

Axis in USD billions, FY2021A to FY2031E; labels in USD millions; the shaded years are our forecast

Free cash flow (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment) · FY2021A: $2,288MFree cash flow (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment) · FY2022A: $3,405MFree cash flow (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment) · FY2023A: $3,837MFree cash flow (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment) · FY2024A: $4,484MFree cash flow (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment) · FY2025A: $4,613MFree cash flow (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment) · FY2026E: $5,806MFree cash flow (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment) · FY2027E: $6,433MFree cash flow (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment) · FY2028E: $7,170MFree cash flow (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment) · FY2029E: $7,968MFree cash flow (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment) · FY2030E: $8,767MFree cash flow (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment) · FY2031E: $9,508MShare repurchases (cash spent) · FY2022A: $1,500MShare repurchases (cash spent) · FY2023A: $2,252MShare repurchases (cash spent) · FY2024A: $3,430MShare repurchases (cash spent) · FY2025A: $3,789MShare repurchases (cash spent) · FY2026E: $4,339MShare repurchases (cash spent) · FY2027E: $5,790MShare repurchases (cash spent) · FY2028E: $6,453MShare repurchases (cash spent) · FY2029E: $7,171MShare repurchases (cash spent) · FY2030E: $7,890MShare repurchases (cash spent) · FY2031E: $8,557MStock-based compensation expense · FY2021A: $899MStock-based compensation expense · FY2022A: $930MStock-based compensation expense · FY2023A: $1,120MStock-based compensation expense · FY2024A: $1,407MStock-based compensation expense · FY2025A: $1,592MStock-based compensation expense · FY2026E: $1,830MStock-based compensation expense · FY2027E: $2,014MStock-based compensation expense · FY2028E: $2,155MStock-based compensation expense · FY2029E: $2,289MStock-based compensation expense · FY2030E: $2,406MStock-based compensation expense · FY2031E: $2,497M$0B$5B$10B$15BFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031E$4,613M$3,789M$1,592MForecastFree cash flow (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment)Share repurchases (cash spent)Stock-based compensation expense

Diluted shares held at 597M in Q3, against our 589M. Trailing free cash flow was $4,904M. At our payout the count falls from 589M to 477M by FY2031E; repurchases at a fair price leave value per share unchanged.

Source: Airbnb Form 10-K for FY2025, key business metrics and revenue by listing location · Airbnb Q3 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (5 Nov 2026)

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8 · Cash and the buyback

Net cash adds $9,834M to enterprise value; the IRS dispute takes off half its excess

Exhibit 8: Enterprise value to equity value (Gordon growth)

USD millions, Gordon growth; the axis is broken below enterprise value so the bridge steps can be read

Enterprise value (Gordon growth): $98,532MEnterprise value (Gordon growth): $98,532MPlus net cash: $9,834MLess the probability-weighted IRS exposure: -$500MEquity value (Gordon growth): $107,867MEquity value (Gordon growth): $107,867MEnterprise value (Gordon growth)Plus net cashLess the probability-weighted IRSexposureEquity value (Gordon growth)$98,532M$9,834M-$500M$107,867M

Customer funds are not in the bridge. They are matched by an equal liability; only their after-tax interest is valued, inside the DCF. The IRS claim exceeds the reserve by more than $1,000M; we deduct 50% of it.

Source: Airbnb Form 10-Q for Q2 2026, revenue by listing location, senior notes, commitments and contingencies

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9 · The equity bridge

No case reaches the $218.49 a BUY needs or the $151.99 SELL line

The $168.34 exit multiple value at 16.0x EBITDA sits further below the price; the Gordon-growth value implies 18.0x.

Exhibit 9: Value per share by case, against the price and the rating lines

USD per share; the tick is the base value on WACC 10.3% and terminal growth 3.0%; the lines are the price and the rating rule

Low · Nights slow to nights accelerate: $161Base value · Nights slow to nights accelerate: $183Low · All four cases: rules spread to nights accelerate: $157Base value · All four cases: rules spread to nights accelerate: $183Low · DCF method: exit multiple to Gordon growth: $168Base value · DCF method: exit multiple to Gordon growth: $183Low · Sell-side price targets, lowest to highest: $135Base value · Sell-side price targets, lowest to highest: $183Nights slow to nights accelerateAll four cases: rules spread to nightsaccelerateDCF method: exit multiple to Gordon growthSell-side price targets, lowest to highest$100$150$200$250$161–$201$157–$201$168–$183$135–$220Sell below: $152Price: $190Buy above: $218

We raised Q4 to management’s view. Revenue of $3,250M, the midpoint of the guide, moved the value from $182.39 to $183.14. Later years are unchanged, as Airbnb gave no figure past 2026.

Sources: Airbnb Q3 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (5 Nov 2026) · FRED series DGS10, 10-year Treasury rate · price, stockanalysis.com, ABNB price history (6 November 2026 close)

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10 · Valuation

What would change the rating from here

Price moves the rating. Even with management support for double-digit 2027 nights, the beat case stays a HOLD here.

If we seeValue per shareRating
Shares at $159 or belowThe base, 15% above the priceBUY
Shares at $229 or aboveThe base, 20% below the priceSELL
Management backs double-digit 2027 nights$201.40HOLD. BUY needs $218.49 at this price
Q4 only reaches our earlier forecast$182.39HOLD
Nights slow and the slowdown carries$161.27HOLD. SELL starts at $151.99
NYC-type rules spread further$157.38HOLD

HOLD. The next test is Q4: revenue of $3,220M to $3,280M, and the first figure for 2027.

Source: Airbnb Q3 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (5 Nov 2026) · values from the forward cases and the rating rule

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11 · What would change the rating

What we said and what happened: nights cleared the beat line, and HOLD stood

What we saidWhat happenedResult
Nights 13% or more, and it carries: BUY16%, about 13% without Reserve Now, Pay LaterQ3 met; no 2027 support, and $201.40 is short of BUY: HOLD
Nights at 8% or less: the miss case16%Not met
Revenue at $4,840M, the top estimate$4,869MPassed. Value barely moved, as we said: HOLD
Margin below 48%51.5%Not met
Q4 revenue guide below 12% growth$3,220M to $3,280M, 17% at the midpointNot met. We moved Q4 to the midpoint
BUY 15% above price, SELL 20% belowBase value $183.14, 4% below $189.99HOLD

We said HOLD at $171.11, on a value of $183.56, and HOLD stands. We were too low on nights, revenue and margin, and too high on ADR and the fall in the share count.

Source: Airbnb Q3 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (5 Nov 2026) · Airbnb Q3 2026 earnings call, on Webull (5 Nov 2026) (third-party transcript)

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12 · What we said and what happened

Sources

Not investment advice. Any rating here is this model's view of value against price at the data cut-off.

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